***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[srvy]

Originally Posted by Jerm

I don't know what's worse, nails on a chalkboard or hearing Mike Parsons attempt to complete sentences. Jesus Christ...

Fat Mike is a disgrace.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

I still don't fully understand how that site updates its data.

From my understanding they use as close as real time data as they can get..ie from state health sites.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Three7s

Another rough day for the USA in terms of new cases and deaths. This isn't peaking in April, for sure.

New cases are going to continue to rise as we do a lot more testing. Dr. Fauci himself said we were going to have "millions" of cases in America.

[2112]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Eh, you can't really determine that. There are already some signs that things are slowing - at least in some areas.

The problem is just that, while we have some areas that are doing a good job of keeping people isolated, other areas...aren't. So it's not gonna be one big, collective curve. We'll see some areas getting better while others get worse until they're forced to get more serious about it.

Exactly. And we’re testing more and more people each day, so of course the numbers are going to go up. Washington and California doing a good job getting it under control. NY, not so much

[dirk digler]

I am a co-author of the @IHME_UW study and I endorse Professor @CT_Bergstrom's interpretation of this uncertainty range. https://t.co/bAWSS0V9FB

— Abraham Flaxman (@healthyalgo) March 31, 2020

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

From my understanding they use as close as real time data as they can get..ie from state health sites.

The data from 1 day made it determine 2000 less deaths in Missouri overall then.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

The data from 1 day made it determine 2000 less deaths in Missouri overall then.

They have a FAQ now but here is the answer to your question.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Where does IHME obtain its data?
The data being used in these forecasts come from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data are available, in order to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.

[BigRedChief]

Hey Daface, Rainman and other statistic guru’s, is this possible to do? Reliable?

Working on something where you can model the number of *detected* cases of a disease as a function of the number of *actual* cases and various assumptions about how/how many tests are conducted. pic.twitter.com/fFv2P4L6TO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 31, 2020

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

They have a FAQ now but here is the answer to your question.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Where does IHME obtain its data?
The data being used in these forecasts come from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data are available, in order to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.

Thank you

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Three7s

Another rough day for the USA in terms of new cases and deaths. This isn't peaking in April, for sure.

It isnt even April yet.

You really feel confident saying we're going to see a nationwide increase in death rates for 30 more days?

**** man - that's going to yield, what, 50,000 dead per day by the end of April?

Yes, this will peak in April. If it doesn't then all this social distancing for 6 weeks stuff meant nothing and we were all ****ed either way.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by eDave

AZ's estamates continue to decline.

We flatline starting in June. Heat related?

That has been shot down by many people including Hamas.

[BigRedChief]

Watch our visualization to see how confirmed coronavirus cases in the US, Italy, and Spain have exploded in recent weeks. https://t.co/jtXuiAIF6u pic.twitter.com/vr3r4Y9r6r

— MIT Technology Review (@techreview) March 31, 2020

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

That has been shot down by many people including Hamas.

Nobody actually knows though.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Hey Daface, Rainman and other statistic guru’s, is this possible to do? Reliable?

Working on something where you can model the number of *detected* cases of a disease as a function of the number of *actual* cases and various assumptions about how/how many tests are conducted. pic.twitter.com/fFv2P4L6TO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 31, 2020

Sure, you can model it. I'm pretty skeptical he's going to come up with anything all that enlightening, though. If I'm reading the image right, he's just making a shit ton of assumptions and seeing what happens rather than using a dataset to drive the model. But who knows - he's done some cool work in the past.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

That has been shot down by many people including Hamas.

I never bought into that idea. Our general flu season is stretching further into the summer too. Like into July when it is consistently 100+