Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

While we're at it let's trade Bader to the Cubs straight up for Heyward and eat all of Heyward's salary.

Then the Cubs can go sign Harper next year.

[BigRedChief]

Mish update on the San Fran offer:
Tyler Beede
Heliot Ramos
Chris Shaw
Christian Arroyo

Plus taking on $250 million of the contract

DJ, what would be a comparable deal from us?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Mish update on the San Fran offer:
Tyler Beede
Heliot Ramos
Chris Shaw
Christian Arroyo

Plus taking on $250 million of the contract

DJ, what would be a comparable deal from us?

Alcantara (>Beede), Sierra (< Ramos), Bader (=Shaw) and Patrick Wisdom (=Arroyo).

Sierra's closer to the majors than Ramos by a fair amount but Ramos has more potential so I could see the Marlins preferring Ramos. If Ramos were to have a year at full-season ball like he just put up in RK ball, he could end up in the top 25 on a lot of prospect lists and start getting the Robles treatment. The problem is that you can say that about probably 50 guys every year in RK ball. But Ramos also has the pedigree. Arroyo is pretty much a UTIL player; the rough equivalent to Greg Garcia. Wisdom's RH power may be attractive to a team that doesn't have much going for it at 3b long-term like FL.

If you take positions out of it you probably get Alcantra = Ramos, Sierra = Beede, Bader = Shaw and Wisdom = Arroyo.

If the Cardinals are also willing to take on more money than SF, that makes their deal better. But Ramos included would explain why the Marlins are giving Stanton the opportunity to call his shot - it's close enough to what the Cards can do that it's worth exploring.

The short answer is that the Cardinals could beat it without batting an eye, IMO.

[DJ's left nut]

To put RK ball performance in perspective, the Royals traded a kid named Esteury Ruiz to the padres in that Cahill, Maurer, Buchter deal last year and sent Wood and Strahm over with him.

Strahm, 1 year prior, had looked to be one of the best young arms in the entire Royals system and had strong stuff to match the performance. With his age, track record and service time advantages over Buchter, Strahm and Wood for Buchter and Cahill was probably a pretty even 'value' trade.

So Ruiz, who also wrecked RK ball last year with a big time BA, plus ISO and outstanding SB totals, was worth roughly Brandon Maurer. Maurer's a pretty fungible reliever who's now arb eligible and has had a career ERA around 5.00 despite spending his entire career in pitchers parks. He's maybe a supercharged version of Seth Maness. Maybe.

That's how much weight you can put on RK ball seasons, even extremely young ones. Those guys just don't have a ton of value built up yet. So you're basing their value on their pedigree, which is why Ramos has the trade value he has as a former 1st rounder.

I'd take Alcantara over him, but it's arguable either way.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Alcantara (>Beede), Sierra (< Ramos), Bader (=Shaw) and Patrick Wisdom (=Arroyo).

The short answer is that the Cardinals could beat it without batting an eye, IMO.

hell we could throw in a better outfielder or prospect than Bader or Sierra and not hurt us at all and it would still be worth 3 years of Stanton.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

hell we could throw in a better outfielder or prospect than Bader or Sierra and not hurt us at all and it would still be worth 3 years of Stanton.

Yeah, if you put O'Niell in there instead of Sierra, you pretty much close off any 'shaw' questions. At that point you do take some starch out of our OF depth, especially in CF, but it's probably still worthwhile.

If the Marlins came back and said "Make it Alcantara, O'Niell, Bader and Wisdom and we'll close the door on the Giants and tell Giancarlo it's STL or Miami", then you have to make the offer.

But I doubt they can get the Marlins to do it at this point; they're too far down the road with the Giants and too much smoke has come out of it. So if that's the case, there's no reason to further sweeten the pot - either Stanton will come to STL or he won't. If he says yes, that deal gets made without putting in a better OFer. If he says no, it doesn't get made either way.

I still think the Cardinals slow played this long enough to let the Giants take the lead in it and that's worthy of some admonition. But apart from that, I think they've done all they can do here. So you give it until the winter meetings and then see if a similar package gets any traction on Ozuna (it won't on Yelich, IMO).

[BigRedChief]

everything I've read says Yelich is going to bring some level of trade like Reyes/ Alacantra/Sierra/Grichuk or Piscotty. If so, that's too much for me.

What do you think it's going to take to land Ozuna.

I'm expecting/hoping they make a trade like one of these above and then overpay for some FA.

[jd1020]

Yelich is definitely going to cost a pretty penny. He's young, already a 4-5 WAR player, and under contract for the next 4 years plus a team option for a 5th year.

A similar player, but slightly older and cheaper, was traded just last year and went for the #3 MiLB prosect, another kid in the 30's who some would argue has more potential than the #3, and the teams current year 1st round draft pick.

I don't think the Cardinals get that deal done without Reyes involved and because of his TJ surgery you can bet at least 1 more of the Cardinals prospects in the top 100 would be involved too.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Yelich is definitely going to cost a pretty penny. He's young, already a 4-5 WAR player, and under contract for the next 4 years plus a team option for a 5th year.

A similar player, but slightly older and cheaper, was traded just last year and went for the #3 MiLB prosect, another kid in the 30's who some would argue has more potential than the #3, and the teams current year 1st round draft pick.

I don't think the Cardinals get that deal done without Reyes involved and because of his TJ surgery you can bet at least 1 more of the Cardinals prospects in the top 100 would be involved too.

I think pitchers with possible #1 starter ceilings are the untouchables. They are just so rare, if you actually find and draft one and they make it to the major leagues and the #1 starter is still a possibility, you keep them no matter what you can get in return.

I'm talking #1 starter on a playoff caliber team not the #1 on the Padres etc.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Yelich is definitely going to cost a pretty penny. He's young, already a 4-5 WAR player, and under contract for the next 4 years plus a team option for a 5th year.

A similar player, but slightly older and cheaper, was traded just last year and went for the #3 MiLB prosect, another kid in the 30's who some would argue has more potential than the #3, and the teams current year 1st round draft pick.

I don't think the Cardinals get that deal done without Reyes involved and because of his TJ surgery you can bet at least 1 more of the Cardinals prospects in the top 100 would be involved too.

Yeah, I think you're talking Reyes and Kelly at that point.

Yelich will cost a lot and is more of a complementary player, albeit a very very good one.

If a Yelich and Ozuna deal can be made, I'd work in that framework but without another big run production bat, you don't get your money's worth from Yelich. I'd have to hold onto Reyes then.

[BigRedChief]

The pebble

@giancarlo818 I know you and @therock are boys but if you come to STL you will be able to… https://t.co/JrofxcyKKg

— Kolten Wong (@KoltenWong) December 5, 2017

[jd1020]

The ace in the hole... Kolten Wong.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by jd1020

The ace in the hole... Kolten Wong.

We should include Wong in the trade package

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

We should include Wong in the trade package

Wong finally started to look like the player we'd hoped he'd be when he was a top prospect.

I see what Merrifield did last year and think "well damn, that's EXACTLY who we hoped Wong would become..." and how much would we love to have that guy at/near the top of our order?

Well Wong showed growth in a lot of key skills last year. If he's healthy this year, he's a 3 WAR player, IMO. I'd rather give him a shot here.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

We should include Wong in the trade package

wong looked like he was starting to live up to his potential. He has way too much upside to trade. His value can't be shit right now. We have no one to play 2B right now anyway. Want to put Carp back over there?