***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by jaa1025

I don't even trust deaths because if someone is dying from heart disease, for example, he will count as a COVID death if he test positive regardless if he was showing symptoms.

True but the figures for deaths are far more accurate that the number of cases. Estimates range from 5x-100x as many cases go undetected as those that are detected.

[Titty Meat]

I walked 5 miles today people dont know personal space especially the bums

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

If that data is based on new cases it is useless. Our increase in new cases could be entirely a function of increased testing. Right now the only stat that I trust is deaths. I highly doubt there are many Covid deaths that are going unreported.

Does anyone have deaths broken out by nation and charted on a logarithmic scale?

I’m sure there are a lot of deaths at the first of this outbreak that occurred because of the virus and the person was never tested for the coronavirus.

[Kman34]

Originally Posted by srvy

Last I heard Swope Memorial and Shoal Creek in Missouri are. You have to reserve and pay online clubhouse and driving range closed no carts walk only. Shoal Creek is a nice public course and Swope is short tight and hilly.

Played Winterstone Sunday.. get your own cart if you want.. they say they have sanitized them but all I saw is a kid wiping them with a wet towel.. not sure what was on the towel so I used a Clorox wipe on mine.. still lots of guys riding together.. Course was busy.. leave the flagstick in and a raised piece of plastic keeps you from touching the cup..my foursome didn’t get within 6 ft of each other..

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

It’s been near 90 degrees with humidity almost every day the past two weeks here and that hasn’t had much impact.

Based on what though? Two weeks isn't anything when it can take two weeks to start showing symptoms.

Considering it's hanging out at roughly 100° inside, I'd think the heat on the outside has much more to do with spreading it via surfaces... and without massive testing for those not showing symptoms, I don't think you could draw any conclusions on the spread of the virus for approximately a month.

[O.city]

They’re gonna start random serology testing here quickly. That will be interesting to see

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by eDave

Bring on the triple digits - Said no one ever
Bring on the triple digits - Says everyone now

I ****ing hate winter, bring it on.

[srvy]

Originally Posted by Kman34

Played Winterstone Sunday.. get your own cart if you want.. they say they have sanitized them but all I saw is a kid wiping them with a wet towel.. not sure what was on the towel so I used a Clorox wipe on mine.. still lots of guys riding together.. Course was busy.. leave the flagstick in and a raised piece of plastic keeps you from touching the cup..my foursome didn’t get within 6 ft of each other..

I have worked often in the former Lafarge deep limestone mine. We took a drive by that course looked pretty nice but haven't played it.

[mr. tegu]

It seems pretty clear to me at this point that the heat effects this as it does other similar viruses. Australia hasn’t seen nearly the growth as other countries that have been dealing with it for a similar amount of time.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It seems pretty clear to me at this point that the heat effects this as it does other similar viruses. Australia hasn’t seen nearly the growth as other countries that have been dealing with it for a similar amount of time.

its been hot down here, mid 80’s- High 80’s, for a couple of weeks. Miami is turning into a major hotspot.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

If that data is based on new cases it is useless. Our increase in new cases could be entirely a function of increased testing. Right now the only stat that I trust is deaths. I highly doubt there are many Covid deaths that are going unreported.

Does anyone have deaths broken out by nation and charted on a logarithmic scale?

Interestingly, increased testing has very minimal impact on this kind of analysis, because the increased discovery of cases affects both the x and y axis. Here is an example where I created some simulated data and increased the percent discovery from 10% to 15% at a certain point in time. It's hard to detect where I introduced the change. Whereas if we truly break away from exponential growth, it will be obvious in the curve. This is a very sensitive way of detecting when social distancing has kicked in and we are no longer in exponential growth.

The problem with looking at deaths is that it will introduce an additional lag of 2 weeks compared to new tests.

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[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

its been hot down here, mid 80’s- High 80’s, for a couple of weeks. Miami is turning into a major hotspot.

It can take that long just to start showing symptoms, so outside of testing everyone in Miami multiple times, you're not going to learn anything about how fast it's spreading for at least 3-4 weeks from the time it's deemed 'warm enough' (and I have no clue what that is, exactly).

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

its been hot down here, mid 80’s- High 80’s, for a couple of weeks. Miami is turning into a major hotspot.

Define hotspot though. Obviously there will be growth everywhere but the rate is what matters and just based on the numbers Florida as a whole is nothing like New York.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

**** it then.
Im rock-en a mullet..

This is my hair cut. Really not hard to do after it's first cut.The problem is going to arise in about a month or two though. I have no way to really cut the top very well.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

They’re gonna start random serology testing here quickly. That will be interesting to see

What locations?