|
04-05-2017, 10:55 AM | |
World's Best Boss
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bronco Country
|
*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***
Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride
Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC): We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0 While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time. 2017's Burning Questions Revisited: 1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline? We're buyers, baby. In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October. 2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels? In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league. 3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen? In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job). MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason. 4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention? Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages. 5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions? Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential. Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player? Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future. The Picture Forward There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future. The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride. April OP:
Spoiler!
Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM.. |
Posts: 18,353
|
05-25-2017, 06:24 AM | #1366 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
|
Quote:
Soler' start is discouraging. And I think it's fair to ask whether the Royals should have targeted a player who was close to the major leagues but didn't have as much MLB service time instead of looking for a guy with several hundred ABs. But he absolutely is not anywhere close to the same territory as John Buck (who was the third piece in the deal). You just can't compare a guy who was never lower than a top 50 prospect, and who was a consensus top 20 guy in his last year of prospect status to Buck. I wish the deal looked as good initially as Nate Karns' deal does, but there's a long way to go, especially considering we have consistently seen the above-average plate discipline from Soler. His raw power combined with that plate discipline gives him pretty significant upside. With Davis, I agree they're a few games better and maybe the 2017 outlook is better. But ask yourself if that's really a good thing. Is that team really good enough to make the playoffs? Or would it be just good enough to hang around all year and keep players here the whole season, waiting for a 15-5 run that likely would not come? Hindsight currently says the deal was a mistake and that KC might have been able to get more for Davis had Moore been open to simply the best return possible, or waited until this season for Davis to show he was healthy and traded him at the deadline. But there's risk inherent with those decisions, too - risk of him getting hurt and getting nothing back. Applying hindsight in a vacuum is dangerous. Now... can we switch gears and talk about the likelihood of convincing Washington to ship out Victor Robles for Cain + Herrera? Passan seems to think it is a reasonable expectation. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
|
Posts: 21,166
|
05-25-2017, 06:31 AM | #1367 |
This is the way
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Wichita Falls, Texas
|
Today's game (May 25th) postposed due to weather
to be played Sept 25th |
Posts: 11,800
|
05-25-2017, 06:57 AM | #1368 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
|
Quote:
... probably works out well for the Royals and for Miguel Almonte's sanity. Making your debut (as a starter) in Yankees stadium against a good lineup is not ideal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
|
Posts: 21,166
|
05-25-2017, 07:19 AM | #1369 | |
21st Century Schizoid Fan
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: The Gates of Delirium
|
Woof is right:
Quote:
|
|
Posts: 69,329
|
05-25-2017, 07:26 AM | #1370 |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
|
I feel like Alex Gordon's first year or so wasn't even that bad. It's just that people had unrealistic expectations. He had a .785 OPS, but people just freaked out because he hit .260. We would kill to have Gordon his .260. .260 with his walks and above avg power is a good year.
|
Posts: 46,404
|
05-25-2017, 07:36 AM | #1371 | |
Stroking to the SB Champs!
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Flatlands of Kansas
|
Quote:
|
|
Posts: 39,381
|
05-25-2017, 07:58 AM | #1372 | |||||
I'm with the Banned
Join Date: Feb 2009
|
Quote:
Soler has 825 plate appearances at the major league level. That's the equivalent to 1 and a half seasons... He had LESS than that total at the minors with only 731 PA's. In 2014 he put up some ridiculous numbers in multiple minor league stops (and 236 PA's) - that is the only measurement we have of success. It just scares the crap out of me because the rest of the time he's been really meh. Quote:
Soler certainly jumped up in rankings on the top prospects Chart in '15 based off his '14 performance. So there's basically what we have to go off of (200 AB's). If he were to ever once perform close to that level again (over the course of a season) it would make the trade worth it in my mind. However, I just don't see it happening. Maybe that's the years of Royals developing "raw" players pessimism permeating my outlook. Lord, I hope I'm wrong here. Quote:
Soler's Raw power is just that... Raw still. Do we need to revisit the list of Royals prospects with Raw power over the past 10 years? (I wanted to put a smiley face, but that statement just made me sad) Quote:
Quote:
Speaking of players with track records of success. That's a trade I could get behind. Except, I don't think Washington will. |
|||||
Posts: 6,055
|
05-25-2017, 08:05 AM | #1373 |
I'm with the Banned
Join Date: Feb 2009
|
And for the record, Duncan. This is what makes you such a great poster in this thread. You're willingness to actually discuss things, instead of simply bashing anything not toeing the line according to the current forum trends.
|
Posts: 6,055
|
05-25-2017, 08:07 AM | #1374 | |
I'm with the Banned
Join Date: Feb 2009
|
Quote:
Ok, maybe most of those penny's are retro-payment for the World Series'. |
|
Posts: 6,055
|
05-25-2017, 08:11 AM | #1375 | |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
|
Quote:
"In the 16 games as the leadoff hitter for the Royals, Alcides Escobar has actually been worse at the plate than he had previously, hitting .176/.197/.206 in 74 plate appearances." |
|
Posts: 46,404
|
05-25-2017, 08:23 AM | #1376 |
Rabbi Goldmann
Join Date: Nov 2012
|
Escobar should've been traded or DFA this winter but for some reason they keep on playing him. Really is stupid. There are a dozen journeymen util IF who could play better and for no $
|
Posts: 87,025
|
05-25-2017, 08:38 AM | #1377 |
Stroking to the SB Champs!
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Flatlands of Kansas
|
I'd rather play Mondesi every day and just let him develop. We lose nothing defensively, and how much are we really going to lose offensively?
|
Posts: 39,381
|
05-25-2017, 08:45 AM | #1378 |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
|
Re: Buck...
Had forgotten he was ranked that high going into 2003. By the summer of 2004, when the deal was made, Teahen was seen as the centerpiece in the circles I was in (was in the middle of my internship at SN at that point, under the tutelage of baseball analysis genius Tom Gatto). It looks like Buck's status was pointing down in the year leading up to that trade, probably why I remembered it the way I did. Kansas City tried the "the gang's all back" approach in 2016, with disappointing results. You can argue that injuries played a part there, definitely, and I have. But it also was reasonable to look at that and say the Royals approach - hyper focused on contact and grinding through low scoring games - had seen its window close. I applaud them for trying to shift gears. I think it was necessary. Especially considering the risk associated with hanging on to Davis. I don't think we're THAT far apart on eval of Soler as a return, actually, now that we've talked through it. I also know his medicals were (and therefore still are) a bit of a mess, which changed the trade return picture and also increased Kc's risk if keeping him. Considering his velo is down ANOTHER full MPH across the board, I wouldn't be surprised if the elbow pops sometime soon (hope it doesn't, for his sake). All of my thoughts on the deal are colored by those thoughts. Re: Robles... I had dismissed that as a "no way" possibility until hearing Passan say it was reasonable this week. That's intriguing. I'd be willing to give the Nats a one-stop shop for what they need to go over The top this year... send them Cain, Herrera, and Soria, and I think you can work Robles and either Andrew Stevenson or Erick Fedde out of them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Posts: 21,166
|
05-25-2017, 08:46 AM | #1379 |
21st Century Schizoid Fan
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: The Gates of Delirium
|
|
Posts: 69,329
|
05-25-2017, 08:47 AM | #1380 |
Stroking to the SB Champs!
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Flatlands of Kansas
|
|
Posts: 39,381
|
|
|