***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Donger

So the CFR is still around 1.7%?

Isn’t that hard to figure that out when so many are undiagnosed? I think some the end of world virus models use something like 1% so I think in the end it will end up below that. If ever we get something that has the spread of H1N1 and CFR of SARs v1 we are screwed.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Four weeks ago did you see something like the current situation in NYC happening?

Not specific to NYC, but I guessed we'd see a few hundred thousand cases, and between 5,000 and 10,000 deaths from this.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Donger

Not specific to NYC, but I guessed we'd see a few hundred thousand cases, and between 5,000 and 10,000 deaths from this.

Mate you said there was 15 deaths and by the end of the month there would be 0

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Isn’t that hard to figure that out when so many are undiagnosed? I think some the end of world virus models use something like 1% so I think in the end it will end up below that. If ever we get something that has the spread of H1N1 and CFR of SARs v1 we are screwed.

Yes, it is, but those are the numbers we have to deal with at present.

1918 H1N1 has a CFR of 2.5 and R0 of 2.2

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Mate you said there was 15 deaths and by the end of the month there would be 0

Oh? I don't recall that.

[mr. tegu]

The Seattle area still seems to be doing as well as you can for the most part. No crazy increases in numbers really at all like New York is seeing.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, it is, but those are the numbers we have to deal with at present.

1918 H1N1 has a CFR of 2.5 and R0 of 2.2

Right now the numbers can be use to make an argument on either side of the severity of this virus but the picture we are seeing on the frontline right now isn’t pretty , nothing I remember seeing before.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Well if CoronaVirus don't get us, this will.

Scientists Say They Can Recreate Living Dinosaurs Within the Next 5 Years http://t.co/NCHlCVx8ad by @Geoff_Weiss pic.twitter.com/4vk36Xa13Y

— Entrepreneur (@Entrepreneur) June 16, 2015

I got excited until I realized this tweet was five years old.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, it is, but those are the numbers we have to deal with at present.

1918 H1N1 has a CFR of 2.5 and R0 of 2.2

Do we have an idea how accurate were the numbers back then? Medical technology wasn’t quite the same either.
I
Penicillin wasn’t even discovered.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Donger

Completely non-political response, but I hope that once this thing is contained, we end up buying a gazillion ventilators and PPE. I'm sure that's one thing that we can all agree upon.

The cheaper option is probably continuing to improve the ability to have multiple people on one machine to where it’s completely normal and reliable.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The Seattle area still seems to be doing as well as you can for the most part. No crazy increases in numbers really at all like New York is seeing.

I wonder how much of it will simply come down to proximity and the relative high use of public transportation. We'll probably never know.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Do we have an idea how accurate were the numbers back then? Medical technology wasn’t quite the same either.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article

[FAX]

I have now decided that I'm against all things viral. That's why I'm not clicking any links to anything. Like, ever.

Meanwhile, please allow me to do you the honor of wishing all Planeteers a happy Sunday (or whatever day it actually is).

I hope everyone is doing as well as could be expected.

Keep your heads, guys.

FAX

[DaneMcCloud]

Dr. Fauci indicated about 25 minutes ago that the US is going to have "millions of cases" and could eventually see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from the Coronavirus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/polit...ntv/index.html

"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

[FAX]

Fauci should be handicapping soccer games.

FAX