Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, Kelly's probably the top catching prospect in baseball but that has more to do with his floor than his ceiling. Kelly's a defensive catching prospect; a guy that's absolutely going to be a major league starter someday, somewhere. So yes, he has value. But when you compare him to guys like Sanchez or Contreras before him and perhaps someone like Fransisco Mejia behind him, you see those guys as being more 'splash' prospects that carry more value. Kelly won't ever be an anchor tenant on a championship team, IMO; more of a 4th-5th best guy. I'd say you're looking at a Tucker Barnhart or Jason Castro kind of player rather than a Buster Posey. Those are nice players and clear starting caliber guys, but they're not guys you blow up a trade for an MVP caliber player for.

Worse still, Molina's going to be the C here for at least 2 more years so you diminish Kelly's value to the organization a little more. Finally, with Knizner showing the ability to perhaps be a premier offensive C prospect with a glove that will allow him to stay behind the plate, he makes Kelly a bit more disposable. Additionally, Donaldson appears to love it in Toronto and would likely be willing to extend there. The Jays could well want to build around him going forward with Bautista almost certainly gone. As for his 1 yr before FA, well that's why I'd want to get that window. Without an extension I don't think you can make the move if for no other reason than the fact that I think Gyorko is a very good player in his own right.

But the Cardinals have a decided lack of elite players on this roster and they need to get some. Donaldson could be that guy and he's fanatical enough about his conditioning that it's not impossible to see him be a Beltre type that ages well. With the Jays not really needing to move him and him not really desperate to be moved, the price is going to be a little higher. That all being said, I already acknowledged that it's not a slam-dunk move; but if you make that deal, this team is significantly better for the next 3 seasons and if Knizner is the real deal, there's little/no long-term harm done.

As for Reyes, we've already burned a year of service time there and he'll spend next year shaking rust off and getting back to form; I doubt he'll be in the rotation. So you're looking at 4 years of 'good' service time from him. With his TJ and the risk that the mechanical changes that gave him a velocity boost (thus spiked his value) also caused the elbow to let go, you have to reconsider his ceiling. Is he really a #1? Or will tweaks be needed to keep him healthy that give back some of that velocity and make him more of a good #2? Let's say for the sake of argument that he is a 1 - you'll get 4 years of him at below market before he's due big money in FA. Meanwhile you'd be getting 5 years of Yelich, who's probably among the top 15 OFers in baseball, at below market value in exchange.

If Reyes is going to be dealt, Yelich is the kind of player you deal him for. He's much lower risk, his ceiling might be just as high (Yelich is a 4-5 WAR player just entering his prime) and he's a perfect complementary part. I wouldn't want to make that deal if it isn't part of Stanton coming across as well, but if you get Stanton, then you easily make the Reyes/Yelich swap because it is at least even from a value for value standpoint while also making Stanton more productive.

l get that Yelich is top shelf talent worthy of a potential #1. But, these other pitchers we have left will all be #3|#2's at best. Yeah we are getting a ton of offensive talent back under your trade scenario outlined above so l guess it balances out. You probably forgot more about players values and WAR this morning than my total knowledge.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

l get that Yelich is top shelf talent worthy of a potential #1. But, these other pitchers we have left will all be #3|#2's at best. Yeah we are getting a ton of offensive talent back under your trade scenario outlined above so l guess it balances out. You probably forgot more about players values and WAR this morning than my total knowledge.

Baseball's finicky nature in the post-season makes having 5 #3 starters a viable way to win a championship, especially if it's accompanied by 3-4 plus relievers.

I love, love LOVE Jordan Hicks. Friggen love the guy. He can be a better version of Chris Archer (who I think is wildly overrated due to his poor command within the strike zone; way too many hittable pitches for a guy with his stuff).

In 2-3 years that staff could easily be Martinez - Flaherty - Weaver - Hicks - Gomber and if it's healthy you'd get more value out of that rotation that all but maybe a handful in baseball.

And there are people that see Hudson and Fernandez in a similar light that I see Hicks (though I see Hudson as more of a Lynn type and Fernandez as a reliever). And I simply don't have a good enough handle on the recent international signings to speak to those arms but there are evidently a couple big time prospects in that group as well. One kid who's name escapes me is evidently turning a ton of heads.

This system is absolutely LOADED with high ceiling arms but most of the hitters are stalling or too far away to rely on. Gotta thin some of them out for things we need now.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Baseball's finicky nature in the post-season makes having 5 #3 starters a viable way to win a championship, especially if it's accompanied by 3-4 plus relievers.


In 2-3 years that staff could easily be Martinez - Flaherty - Weaver - Hicks - Gomber and if it's healthy you'd get more value out of that rotation that all but maybe a handful in baseball.


This system is absolutely LOADED with high ceiling arms but most of the hitters are stalling or too far away to rely on. Gotta thin some of them out for things we need now.

You don’t see Wacha as a possibility in 3 years? He will be only 29. He has been up and down, but he still has that stuff that could easily project as that prototype high ceiling #3 starter. The game does seem to be moving towards stronger deeper bullpens vs elite starters, particularly come playoff time.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Today in "trade musings born of slow mornings" I have decided to rebuild the entire Cardinals roster in an attempt to push in a bit for 2018.

What if the Cardinals got a wild hair and decided to trade for both Stanton AND Yelich? Do that and you have some parts you need to move around on the big league roster.

Stanton (and his contact), Yelich and Volquez (and his $13 million while being unlikely to pitch in '18 due to TJ surgery) for Reyes, Alcantara, Bader, Grichuk, Perez and Diaz.

Pham to the Yankees for Chad Green and Greg Bird.

Gyorko and Kelly to the Jays for Donaldson.

Piscotty to the Orioles for Mychel Givens

Carpenter to the Rangers for Keone Kela

All of those deals are extremely doable, right? From the Marlins perspective you'd be getting a ton of salary relief as well as immediate help and high-end prospects. It boils down to Alcantara, Grichuk and Diaz for Stanton and Reyes, Bader and Perez for Yelich and Volquez. That's a ton of young, controlled players plus about $40 million in immediate salary relief.

Pham to the Yankees for Bird and Green gets the Yankees some athleticism in the OF that they desperately need and a great complementary part to their young power hitters. They're likely to make a play on Hosmer so Bird would be blocked but I believe in his power and would like the lefty with thump at 1b. Green is among the best relievers in baseball that nobody seems to know about.

Gyorko and Kelly for Donaldson seems fair given that Donaldson is a year from FA and entering his age 32 season. Gyorko is 3 years younger and sporting a well below market contract for the next 3 years. He established himself as a legit regular last year, has a plus glove and would easily hit 30 bombs in Toronto. I'm actually reluctant to make this deal as I'm not sure we get much better but it would send a signal to the team and get a hell of a personality in the clubhouse. I'd want a negotiating window though; he'd come with a deal that covers his 32-36 seasons at about $110 million.

Piscotty would be interesting to the Orioles given his long-term deal and their issues in 2019 when they're going to struggle to field a team; a lot of their guys are coming up on FA and their pipeline is barren. I'm not positive you could get them to give up Givens, but their bullpen has so much depth that if they want to get some help in the field, they'll have to deal from there. They'd have to believe that 2017 was an outlier for Piscotty but there's plenty of cause to believe it was.

Carpenter for Kela would get the Rangers a little immediate firepower to make a push while Beltre is still sharp. They could use more production from DH and Carpenter would give them that in spades. His new fly-ball stroke would actually play well in Arlington.

Meanwhile the Cards system is diminished but not gutted. They'd still have Flaherty, Weaver, Hicks, Hudson and Gomber as well as guys like Woodford and Fernandez. On the offensive side they'd still have Sierra, Bader, Mercado, Sosa and Knizner (who may be making Kelly trade-able) as well as the slew of international signings like Arozarena. They'd need to go after Maitan, Pena, Del Rosario and Negret from the Braves exodus to back-fill but I think they could snag a couple of those guys. Get 2 of them and the system is probably still top 15 in baseball; top 20 at worst. With a big wave of guys in the high minors that can move things back up in the next 3-4 years.

Now your OF is Fowler - Yelich - Stanton and your IF is Donaldson - DeJong - Wong - Bird (with Martinez as the other half of that platoon).

Your rotation is Martinez, Wacha, Wainwright, Weaver and Flaherty and I think you'd need to pursue Tyler Chatwood in FA; he'd bump Flaherty with Flaherty in reserve for Wainwright's eventual implosion.

Your bullpen might be the best collection of young power arms in baseball with Givens, Kela, Green, Tuiviala, Brebbia, Lyons and Cecil

Lineup:

Fowler
DeJong (yes, this seems crazy but he'd get so many pitches to hit here)
Yelich
Stanton
Donaldson
Bird
Molina
Wong
P

Seriously - that team can win a championship, right? You're counting on growth from the young arms but that core is a contender for 3 years while those arms come together.

After accounting for losses from last year's roster and trades, it moves the payroll from about $135 million in '17 to about $165 million in '18 (made a few arb projections and figured on the minimum for the pre-arb guys; backloaded Chatwood's deal so he's getting $7 million in '18); that would've placed the Cardinals 10th in MLB last year. I suspect it would put them around 12th for '18.

With the new cable deal and the fanbase/support this team has, they absolutely owe us that. That's not unreasonable at all and when Wainwright/Volquez fall off the payroll in 2019, they'll have plenty more money freed up.

Ah, **** it. That's too interesting for this organization. But it sure would be fun.

That is definitely Whiteyesque! I hate losing Pham, but Fowler isn’t going anywhere and if you get Bird and Green it’s a good deal. I’d switch out Flaherty for Reyes. He can pitch for them right away, we keep the higher upside.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by VAChief

You don’t see Wacha as a possibility in 3 years? He will be only 29. He has been up and down, but he still has that stuff that could easily project as that prototype high ceiling #3 starter. The game does seem to be moving towards stronger deeper bullpens vs elite starters, particularly come playoff time.

I just think he'll get passed in the pecking order and get 'Lynned'.

Lynn was great to have around until he got expensive. When that happened, the Cardinals moved on with cheaper in-house options.

Wacha and his goofy shoulder (and #3 pitch that never developed) won't be someone trustworthy enough to dedicate significant resources to. Meanwhile, if he's had 2 more healthy seasons, he'll be due for a healthy long-term contract, especially as a younger free agent.

I wouldn't make the gamble on him that other organizations, especially those without the pitching depth STL has in their system, would be willing to make.
He might be a better pitcher than someone like Gomber, but he won't be $15 million/season for 5 seasons better. So ultimately he isn't in my long-term plans.

Pitchers have become a lot like runningbacks to me. Unless you have a guy that's truly special, ride 'em hard until they hit FA and then bring in a replacement. Wacha won't ever be truly special because the shoulder seems to have messed up his development. The changeup lost its fade, the curveball lost its promise and the fastball never developed the movement it needs to match its velocity. So you end up with a 2 pitch pitcher who's 2 pitches aren't that great.

For some teams, that's worth $15 million. For the Cardinals, it won't be.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I just think he'll get passed in the pecking order and get 'Lynned'.

Lynn was great to have around until he got expensive. When that happened, the Cardinals moved on with cheaper in-house options.

Wacha and his goofy shoulder (and #3 pitch that never developed) won't be someone trustworthy enough to dedicate significant resources to. Meanwhile, if he's had 2 more healthy seasons, he'll be due for a healthy long-term contract, especially as a younger free agent.

I wouldn't make the gamble on him that other organizations, especially those without the pitching depth STL has in their system, would be willing to make.
He might be a better pitcher than someone like Gomber, but he won't be $15 million/season for 5 seasons better. So ultimately he isn't in my long-term plans.

Pitchers have become a lot like runningbacks to me. Unless you have a guy that's truly special, ride 'em hard until they hit FA and then bring in a replacement. Wacha won't ever be truly special because the shoulder seems to have messed up his development. The changeup lost its fade, the curveball lost its promise and the fastball never developed the movement it needs to match its velocity. So you end up with a 2 pitch pitcher who's 2 pitches aren't that great.

For some teams, that's worth $15 million. For the Cardinals, it won't be.

starting pitchers need to face hitters the majority of their starts at least 3 times with each start. To have a quality start anyway. Wacha is not capable of that. Why would he get a great contract? Every team already knows this about Wacha, correct?

With our starting pitching depth in 2019, why not put Wacha in the bullpen? His two pitches should play well in relief.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by VAChief

That is definitely Whiteyesque! I hate losing Pham, but Fowler isn’t going anywhere and if you get Bird and Green it’s a good deal. I’d switch out Flaherty for Reyes. He can pitch for them right away, we keep the higher upside.

l like switching out Flaherty for Reyes too.

[BigRedChief]

BTW, the Archer/Colome to the Cardinals rumors are rampant down here.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

BTW, the Archer/Colome to the Cardinals rumors are rampant down here.

Do not want.

Both guys are overrated. Archer because of his sparkly strikeout numbers have that never matched his results and Colome because of his role. Take Colome out of the 9th and he's just another forgettable setup man making $5 million. They gave him the 9th because Boxberger got hurt and suddenly the Cardinals are willing to move heaven and earth for him? Pft - idiots.

But hey, like I said, this front office is unimaginative and lazy. So yeah, they'll give up a shitload for that package because it will make a lot of stupid rubes in this fanbase think they're trying.

It will make the team no better than it was last year. And I mean that with no hyperbole. Colome is a glorified Brebbia and Archer will pitch to the same .500 record he always pitches to, giving you more exciting versions of the same thing Lynn always did. He's one of the best examples you'll ever see of pitching just well enough to lose - Jose DeLeon reincarnate.

If that's their big move, they'll give up more than it would take to get Stanton; probably equal to what it would take to get Yelich and they'll still win 86 games or fewer. It's the kind of narrow-minded horseshit I've come to expect from an organization that has very clearly run out of ideas.

[VAChief]

Jose De Leon

Ken Harrelson trading Bobby Bonilla for De Leon was not one of his finer moments.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Archer is the shining example for why you can't trust xFIP in a vacuum. It's actually insulting to compare Lynn to him.

[rico]

Originally Posted by VAChief

Jose De Leon

Ken Harrelson trading Bobby Bonilla for De Leon was not one of his finer moments.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Do not want.

Both guys are overrated. Archer because of his sparkly strikeout numbers have that never matched his results and Colome because of his role. Take Colome out of the 9th and he's just another forgettable setup man making $5 million. They gave him the 9th because Boxberger got hurt and suddenly the Cardinals are willing to move heaven and earth for him? Pft - idiots.

But hey, like I said, this front office is unimaginative and lazy. So yeah, they'll give up a shitload for that package because it will make a lot of stupid rubes in this fanbase think they're trying.

It will make the team no better than it was last year. And I mean that with no hyperbole. Colome is a glorified Brebbia and Archer will pitch to the same .500 record he always pitches to, giving you more exciting versions of the same thing Lynn always did. He's one of the best examples you'll ever see of pitching just well enough to lose - Jose DeLeon reincarnate.

If that's their big move, they'll give up more than it would take to get Stanton; probably equal to what it would take to get Yelich and they'll still win 86 games or fewer. It's the kind of narrow-minded horseshit I've come to expect from an organization that has very clearly run out of ideas.

maybe it's just Rays fans knowing the same things as in this post and wanting to dump them while the dumping is good?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Archer is the shining example for why you can't trust xFIP in a vacuum. It's actually insulting to compare Lynn to him.

Yeah, you need to watch him pitch a fair amount to really notice the phenomenon.

Which is to say that you need to pay a hefty acquisition cost for him in a big money dynasty league.

I have watched far more of Chris Archer than I have had any reason to and while I am confident he'd strike out 280 guys in the national league, he'd absolutely sport a league average WHIP, an ERA a half run higher than it 'should' be and a 14-12 record.

[dls6501]

I watched Archer a great deal last year too. What was frustrating was that he had a ton of games where he would dominate for 6 innings and then get ripped in the 7th...making his overall line for the day awful. Not that I have faith in Mattheny knowing when and when not to use his pen, but Archer's season was substantially better than it looks on the surface. Id be willing to bet if you took away his stats from the last inning of every start, his ERA goes down a run and a half.