***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

I hope I’m wrong but at the current trend the US is on, on Tuesday we will have 800 deaths per day... and on April 4th 1000.

Hope I’m wrong.

We went from 225 to 401 in 4 days, we went from 247 to 515 in 4 days, tomorrow’s numbers dictates another 550+

We will see

At what point does your math start factoring in things like mitigation steps vis-a-vis lockdowns, social distancing, etc?

Everyone's math seems to assume there are no variables and things are just going to keep going in a linear fashion.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

At what point does your math start factoring in things like mitigation steps vis-a-vis lockdowns, social distancing, etc?

Everyone's math seems to assume there are no variables and things are just going to keep going in a linear fashion.

About 2 weeks from now when things hopefully start dropping it will be because of what we are doing now

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

About 2 weeks from now when things hopefully start dropping it will be because of what we are doing now

What about those who started locking down almost 1-2 weeks ago?

[eDave]

Originally Posted by O.city

About 2 weeks from now when things hopefully start dropping it will be because of what we are doing now

Said two weeks ago.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by petegz28

At what point does your math start factoring in things like mitigation steps vis-a-vis lockdowns, social distancing, etc?

Everyone's math seems to assume there are no variables and things are just going to keep going in a linear fashion.

Social distancing has changed the math. We are not Italy. We are voluntarily abiding by the social distancing ask by scientists at least 10 days to 2 weeks before Italy abided by their ask.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by eDave

Said two weeks ago.

Exactly. "2 weeks" is like the answer for everything. And everything is always "2 weeks" away. All it does is make me think of the creepy lady in Total Recall.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Business Insider is saying NYC is 11 days from running out of hospital space....

Does that include the added hospital capacity from the USNS Comfort (1,000 hospital beds) and the field hospitals being set-up at the Javits Center and elsewhere?

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Does that include the added hospital capacity from the USNS Comfort (1,000 hospital beds) and the field hospitals being set-up at the Javits Center and elsewhere?

Not sure but my friend for reactivated today shes a medic in the army and shes going to NY.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Exactly. "2 weeks" is like the answer for everything. And everything is always "2 weeks" away. All it does is make me think of the creepy lady in Total Recall.

Made me think of Money Pit.

[displacedinMN]

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by eDave

Said two weeks ago.

NYC was extremely slow in their response their mayor tried his best to have a St Pat parade

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by eDave

Said two weeks ago.

You’re siding with Pete.

Think about that.

[TLO]

Two weeks.

Tip of the iceberg.

Exponential growth.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by eDave

Said two weeks ago.

I think it's still going to be another week just because a lot of people didn't really take that seriously, and a lot of businesses really didn't shut down until a week and a half ago to this week. I think the optimistic view is we'd see numbers steady a bit maybe and not grow quite as fast, but I can't imagine we're going to see a lot of positive news next week.

That doesn't even factor all the spring break kids who came back and are spreading it around. Odds are it's going to keep spiraling around the drain.

[carlos3652]

Who was locked down 2 weeks ago? Kansas and Missouri went into lockdown on Tuesday this week? Lol

I don’t know if you remember but there was no social distancing during spring break for many.