***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by wazu

Let's assume for a minute that this ridiculous statement were correct. So what? Do you really think we can just stop it altogether? It's going to run it's course, through the entire population. "Flattening the curve" still assumes that it runs through all of us at some point, but that social distancing slows things down enough to avoid complete health system meltdown. You can't control it. Government can't control it. Best we can do is test like crazy and quarantine people, and allow some semblance of normalcy to return before we enter the next Great Depression.

If there are thousands of people dying a day due to a disease the economy is going to crater. Especially if there is no confidence in the government to do anything about it, especially if they've decided "Let's all go back to normal and whoever dies, dies."

The idea that people are going to go out and spend money and keep the economy afloat in that scenario has gotta be pretty small. And that doesn't even factor the large number of people who are going to get sick and be out of commission for two weeks. It'd be more chaos than we're seeing right now.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

https://twitter.com/michaelcoudrey/s...737440768?s=21

Someone embed for me

BREAKING: French government reverses earlier ban on hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID19 patients in light of successful clinical studies showing significant efficacy against the virus.

Hydroxychloroquine may now be prescribed to treat COVID-19 in France.

— Michael Coudrey (@MichaelCoudrey) March 28, 2020

[RollChiefsRoll]

Originally Posted by wazu

Today Cuomo announced hospitalization rates were slowing. He has no motivation to lie about this.

Slowing but still stacking, is my understanding. Hence the eventual need, sometime in mid-April, for ~30k ventilators.

[carlos3652]

Since March 20th, world wide death daily change rate shows an increase of either 13-14 % for each day... that’s super consistent...

[O.city]

Originally Posted by wazu

Today Cuomo announced hospitalization rates were slowing. He has no motivation to lie about this.

The problem is that it's not like your admitted then leave a day or two later. They usually are in for about 2 weeks or so.

Hence the need for all the new hospital beds etc.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

We’re going to start seeing 1,000s dead per day soon. Hospital capacity isn’t even going to peak in NYC for another 2-3 weeks.

Totally ****ed.

Yeah, I just don't think that's gonna happen

[wazu]

Originally Posted by tk13

If there are thousands of people dying a day due to a disease the economy is going to crater. Especially if there is no confidence in the government to do anything about it, especially if they've decided "Let's all go back to normal and whoever dies, dies."

The idea that people are going to go out and spend money and keep the economy afloat in that scenario has gotta be pretty small. And that doesn't even factor the large number of people who are going to get sick and be out of commission for two weeks. It'd be more chaos than we're seeing right now.

There is a middle ground. People working from home if at all possible, avoiding big social gatherings, etc. My tirade started from the idea that we should be enforcing greater and greater measures of extreme shutdown, to the exclusion of all reason, and plunge ourselves into full-on economic depression while chasing a goal that we won't even achieve.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yeah, I just don't think that's gonna happen

Based on?

We're so populated, once they start getting 2 or 3 hundred from other cities, it'll add quick.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

The problem is that it's not like your admitted then leave a day or two later. They usually are in for about 2 weeks or so.

Hence the need for all the new hospital beds etc.

Yes but if the number is slowing it is still a good thing regardless.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by wazu

There is a middle ground. People working from home if at all possible, avoiding big social gatherings, etc. My tirade started from the idea that we should be enforcing greater and greater measures of extreme shutdown, to the exclusion of all reason, and plunge ourselves into full-on economic depression while chasing a goal that we won't even achieve.

If you can get it under control and it peaks this month, we can start loosening the reigns end of April, early May if all systems are in place to track it.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yes but if the number is slowing it is still a good thing regardless.

For sure, it's not a bad thing by any means.

But it's the accumulation.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Haven’t been in here all day.

What number is slowing?

Any good news?

[Titty Meat]

Business Insider is saying NYC is 11 days from running out of hospital space....

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Based on?

We're so populated, once they start getting 2 or 3 hundred from other cities, it'll add quick.

Cause I don't think we are going to see 1,000's dying every day. You also said viruses don't mutate to a less virulent form which is not at all accurate.

So what I am saying is, relax a bit and don't be so quick to jump to the extreme. Even Italy at this point doesn't have 1,000's a day dying.

I won't name who it was but we all know, that said we would have a day this weekend where 1,000 people died. We aren't even at half of that.

Dr. Birx herself said the other day the media's doomsday scenarios are not accurate.

Not trying to argue with you but just saying to just that you are putting the cart out in front of the horse a bit. You may be right, let's hope not.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Cause I don't think we are going to see 1,000's dying every day. You also said viruses don't mutate to a less virulent form which is not at all accurate.

So what I am saying is, relax a bit and don't be so quick to jump to the extreme. Even Italy at this point doesn't have 1,000's a day dying.

I won't name who it was but we all know, that said we would have a day this weekend where 1,000 people died. We aren't even at half of that.

Dr. Birx herself said the other day the media's doomsday scenarios are not accurate.

Not trying to argue with you but just saying to just that you are putting the cart out in front of the horse a bit. You may be right, let's hope not.

Thats actually the opposite of what i said.

I hope we don't get to that point. But it's not looking good.