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03-28-2020, 04:28 PM | #13006 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Do you have any up to date numbers regarding US cases? I can't seem to find much.
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Posts: 40,583
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03-28-2020, 04:28 PM | #13007 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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03-28-2020, 04:29 PM | #13008 | |
THE RED MENACE
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Texas
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Quote:
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Posts: 32,440
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03-28-2020, 04:30 PM | #13009 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Posts: 40,583
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03-28-2020, 04:31 PM | #13010 |
Fish are scared of me
Join Date: Nov 2001
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Here's how to save yourself right here:
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Posts: 40,797
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03-28-2020, 04:36 PM | #13011 | |
www.nfl-forecast.com
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Quote:
CFR, R0, and all of the other epidemiologic parameters depend on so many things not related to the virus. R0 depends on how much social distancing is being practiced, probably population density, social customs, etc. CFR depends on the age demographics of the population, sex, blood type, and quality of medical care. So far the virus has hit hardest in economically developed countries. I think once the virus hits a high population density, economically disadvantaged area the outcome will be tragic. The one thing going for them is that the age demographics of most such areas are skewed toward younger populations. |
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Posts: 45,668
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03-28-2020, 04:36 PM | #13012 |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
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(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)
Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR. IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed. IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities) FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks + FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5% FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases. IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3% These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions. Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation. |
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03-28-2020, 04:39 PM | #13013 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
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03-28-2020, 04:39 PM | #13014 | |
Shit
Join Date: Jun 2008
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03-28-2020, 04:39 PM | #13015 | |
www.nfl-forecast.com
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Posts: 45,668
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03-28-2020, 04:40 PM | #13016 |
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Join Date: Nov 2001
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I agree we aren't getting all the cases but we also don't know the people who were dying from pneumonia and such either.
Of course the biggest issue is still really trying to keep this from overrunning so bad that it overwhelms hospitals, regardless of how contagious or deadly it is. Even though we probably don't know the actual death rate we have plenty of evidence it can cause a lot of people to go to the hospital in a hurry. |
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03-28-2020, 04:42 PM | #13017 |
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
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yep, that is why I kept saying "current", you are correct that we may see a big shift due to lag times.
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03-28-2020, 04:43 PM | #13018 |
Indian Twitter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Free Agency
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I've been out of the house about once a day it seems like. I travel in a small area and constantly disinfect and wash my hands and then I do it again. The wife hadn't been out of the house for 3 weeks but today she wanted sushi so we did curb side pickup. It made me nervous but I didn't want to tell her no since she was so excited. Then we've both done lots of online shopping. I try to spray down the boxes with disinfectant and then there's a constant flow of mail. I feel like my every move is a roll of the dice and If the wife gets it I don't think she'll make it.
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03-28-2020, 04:49 PM | #13019 | |
www.nfl-forecast.com
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Quote:
This refers to the "true" CFR, accounting for all cases, not just confirmed cases. |
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Posts: 45,668
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03-28-2020, 04:51 PM | #13020 |
Mahomes: We Are All Witnesses
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Miami, FL
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Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?
If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units? |
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