|
05-04-2022, 01:19 PM | #12856 | |
Politically Incorrect
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
|
Quote:
Facebook (Meta) Options hit big today. Felt this coming. Put my money where my mouth was. |
|
Posts: 52,112
|
05-04-2022, 02:15 PM | #12857 |
Politically Incorrect
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
|
This has been a very good day!!!
|
Posts: 52,112
|
05-04-2022, 02:25 PM | #12858 |
Kind of a mod
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
|
So far, you appear to be correct.
|
Posts: 52,337
|
1 0 |
05-04-2022, 02:38 PM | #12859 |
Why so serious?
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Chicago
|
Fed was dovish. The market has spent the last 6 months pricing rate increases sooner and sooner and then when it could no longer do that in proceeded to price them larger and larger. The Fed essentially took 75bp hikes off the table which is as dovish as they've been since last fall. That's the good news for equities as the Fed is less likely to prematurely choke off the recovery.
The bad news may be that inflation all else equal will be set to run higher and longer end yields could potentially shift higher as a result (the next week is a gauntlet of events that might push that way). Typically higher long end yields are bad for sectors like tech. That's all I've got. |
Posts: 12,670
|
1 0 |
05-04-2022, 03:45 PM | #12860 |
Fish are scared of me
Join Date: Nov 2001
|
|
Posts: 40,779
|
1 0 |
05-04-2022, 04:51 PM | #12861 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jan 2016
|
Quote:
|
|
Posts: 27,643
|
05-04-2022, 04:55 PM | #12862 |
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
|
|
Posts: 142,670
|
05-04-2022, 05:13 PM | #12863 |
Fish are scared of me
Join Date: Nov 2001
|
|
Posts: 40,779
|
05-04-2022, 05:16 PM | #12864 |
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
|
|
Posts: 142,670
|
05-04-2022, 07:39 PM | #12865 |
TACO SALAD
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: yes
|
|
Posts: 6,249
|
05-04-2022, 07:49 PM | #12866 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
|
are we bullish now?
|
Posts: 286,080
|
05-04-2022, 08:41 PM | #12867 | |
Why so serious?
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Chicago
|
Quote:
The Fed isn't dovish by any stretch but there's a limit to the neverending hawkishness that the market needed to subscribe to. |
|
Posts: 12,670
|
05-04-2022, 10:48 PM | #12868 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Scott City KS
|
Quote:
While I haven't made a model or even done any math on what my retirement would look like, I know what those numbers would do to wreck a projected budget. Especially over the course of 30 years. That's why I would be terrified if I was wanting to retire in the midst of this inflation. My Dad was saying this whole time that this was going to be like the 70s. I called bullshit because the fed lived through the 70s and learned from it. But as much inflation as there was I am surprised that they haven't been more aggressive. Now, I've been all the way wrong on a bunch of Fed policy so I'll certainly admit to being a dumbass. Nonetheless, there is risk of a protracted inflation/recession cycle. I would urge anyone contemplating retirement to factor in a LOT of "in case shit" money and extra inflation to conserve capital in your retirement plan before you let go of your full time gig, especially if it is a good one. I still see myself as a young dude, but I'm starting to believe I've lived through a lot of shit. I was paying attention, not in the professional workforce, but I was paying attention through the .com bubble, was trying to find a job after the 08 crash, I've managed people through the COVID environment and subsequent sellers market in labor. And that's 20 years. If you're going to need to save for 30 years of retirement, the only thing I can guarantee is change. As far as a risk assessment, a recession and subsequent retraction of the labor market would be the worst possible thing for a recent retiree. Today, a retiree could probably get about any job they want, but if a recession happens and we enter a labor market like 08, it would then be harder for them to re-enter the labor market. So my advice to anyone considering retirement is to make sure you have shit locked the hell down because uncertainty can make life hard. Just my $.02 [/unsolicited advice from an admitted moron] |
|
Posts: 57,710
|
05-04-2022, 10:55 PM | #12869 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Scott City KS
|
Quote:
That's another reason I'd be terrified to retire. The one benefit from this noise is if we have inflation and fight it with higher interest rates, the bond market may once again be a viable low-risk investment instrument. |
|
Posts: 57,710
|
05-05-2022, 07:51 AM | #12870 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jan 2016
|
Quote:
|
|
Posts: 27,643
|
|
|