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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 05-21-2017, 03:46 PM   #1231
Captain Obvious Captain Obvious is offline
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So is Bubba starting to put things together at the plate in Omaha? Looks like he's had a pretty good 2 week run.
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Old 05-21-2017, 03:52 PM   #1232
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Kelvin only put 2 guys on in the 9th with a two run lead. So we are seeing some progress
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Old 05-21-2017, 03:59 PM   #1233
Mama Hip Rockets Mama Hip Rockets is offline
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Yeah. Anyone. CY has the same -0.3 WAR as Mighty Kelvin and if you can believe it, a much lower HR% on flyballs (17% vs 23%)


Kelvin has been serving up more meatballs than even CY
I don't know why I'm bothering explaining this to you since you just said the dumbest dumbass thing in the history of dumb dumbass things, but let me break it down.

This year

ERA: Herrera 4.50, Young 7.27, Moylan 9.20, Wood 10.43 LOL
ERA+: Herrera 96, Young 59, Moylan 47, Wood 41 LOL
WHIP: Herrera 1.22, Young 2.08, Moylan 1.84, Wood 2.39 LOL
K/9: Herrera 8.5, Young 6.2, Moylan 6.8, Wood 6.1
K/BB Ratio: Herrera 5.67, Young 1.33, Moylan 1.38, Wood 0.71 LOL
WAR: Herrera 0.1, Young -0.4, Moylan -0.8, Wood -1.4 (got these from Baseball Reference; not sure where you are getting your source that says Chris Young is as valuable as Herrera, but it's clearly a fake news site)

Career
ERA: Herrera 2.72, Young 3.92, Moylan 3.18, Wood 4.10
ERA+: Herrera 154, Young 104, Moylan 132, Wood 96
WHIP: Herrera 1.12, Young 1.25, Moylan 1.34, Wood 1.29
K/9: Herrera 9.1, Young 7.4, Moylan 6.9, Wood 7.3
K/BB Ratio: Herrera 3.46, Young 2.12, Moylan 1.83, Wood 2.20

So, despite having his a relatively poor 1.5 months, Herrera is clearly better than all of those other guys in literally every statistical category this year, and unequivocally better than all of them over the course of his career. Please take your knee-jerk-reaction schoolboy understanding of the game to the Facebook comments.
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Old 05-21-2017, 04:44 PM   #1234
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thurman merman View Post
I don't know why I'm bothering explaining this to you since you just said the dumbest dumbass thing in the history of dumb dumbass things, but let me break it down.

This year

ERA: Herrera 4.50, Young 7.27, Moylan 9.20, Wood 10.43 LOL
ERA+: Herrera 96, Young 59, Moylan 47, Wood 41 LOL
WHIP: Herrera 1.22, Young 2.08, Moylan 1.84, Wood 2.39 LOL
K/9: Herrera 8.5, Young 6.2, Moylan 6.8, Wood 6.1
K/BB Ratio: Herrera 5.67, Young 1.33, Moylan 1.38, Wood 0.71 LOL
WAR: Herrera 0.1, Young -0.4, Moylan -0.8, Wood -1.4 (got these from Baseball Reference; not sure where you are getting your source that says Chris Young is as valuable as Herrera, but it's clearly a fake news site)

Career
ERA: Herrera 2.72, Young 3.92, Moylan 3.18, Wood 4.10
ERA+: Herrera 154, Young 104, Moylan 132, Wood 96
WHIP: Herrera 1.12, Young 1.25, Moylan 1.34, Wood 1.29
K/9: Herrera 9.1, Young 7.4, Moylan 6.9, Wood 7.3
K/BB Ratio: Herrera 3.46, Young 2.12, Moylan 1.83, Wood 2.20

So, despite having his a relatively poor 1.5 months, Herrera is clearly better than all of those other guys in literally every statistical category this year, and unequivocally better than all of them over the course of his career. Please take your knee-jerk-reaction schoolboy understanding of the game to the Facebook comments.
"Nobody cares about career numbers" - Alex Gordon



I said he's getting hit harder than CY. Let's look at the actual data:

Fangraphs WAR: Herrera -0.3, CY -0.3
Innings: Herrera 18, CY 17
FIP: Herrera 5.27, CY 6.39
Ground Drive %: Herrera 43%, CY 43%
Fly ball %: Herrera 38%, CY 34%
Pop up%: Herrera 5%, CY 17%
HR %: Herrera 24%, CY 17%
Hard hit ball %: Herrera 42%, CY 27%

contact rate: Hererra 82%, CY 85%



So there you have it. Herrera has by far the highest hard hit and HR rate on the team, and his hitters make almost the same contact rate they do vs Young.
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:07 PM   #1235
BWillie BWillie is offline
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Herrera is a true piece of shit. He's cost us 3-4 games already in the 9th. Wade would never have done that. We'd be in 1st or close right now instead of in the basement. I really hate this asshole


Plus we need to trade him in July and he's destroyed all his value. I'd DFA his sorry ass and tell him to F--- off as he left the clubhouse
Yeah, I mean lets DFA a guy who's had a sub 2.7 four out of the last 5 years. He's having trouble locating his secondary pitches right now.
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:09 PM   #1236
BWillie BWillie is offline
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Originally Posted by Captain Obvious View Post
So is Bubba starting to put things together at the plate in Omaha? Looks like he's had a pretty good 2 week run.
apparently went 4-4 today with two doubles and a HR. Batting .230. He has value if he can hit even .230 in the MLB someday. Maybe he could be our Kiermaier. He's one of the best defensive CF's in the minor leagues.
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:28 PM   #1237
PHOG PHOG is offline
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Yeah. Anyone. CY has the same -0.3 WAR as Mighty Kelvin and if you can believe it, a much lower HR% on flyballs (17% vs 23%)


Kelvin has been serving up more meatballs than even CY
OMG NW
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:31 PM   #1238
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by BWillie View Post
Yeah, I mean lets DFA a guy who's had a sub 2.7 four out of the last 5 years. He's having trouble locating his secondary pitches right now.
No, he's getting his fastball hammered
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:35 PM   #1239
ChiliConCarnage ChiliConCarnage is offline
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This threads been bitched up
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Old 05-21-2017, 05:48 PM   #1240
Mama Hip Rockets Mama Hip Rockets is offline
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
"Nobody cares about career numbers" - Alex Gordon



I said he's getting hit harder than CY. Let's look at the actual data:

Fangraphs WAR: Herrera -0.3, CY -0.3
Innings: Herrera 18, CY 17
FIP: Herrera 5.27, CY 6.39
Ground Drive %: Herrera 43%, CY 43%
Fly ball %: Herrera 38%, CY 34%
Pop up%: Herrera 5%, CY 17%
HR %: Herrera 24%, CY 17%
Hard hit ball %: Herrera 42%, CY 27%

contact rate: Hererra 82%, CY 85%

So there you have it. Herrera has by far the highest hard hit and HR rate on the team, and his hitters make almost the same contact rate they do vs Young.
So basically you are using a bunch of relatively meaningless stats to say Herrera should be DFA because he has given up one more home run than Chris Young in the last 18 innings, despite being an elite reliever his whole career while Chris Young has been batting practice for the last couple years. In the meantime, you're ignoring the mind-boggling awfulness of Travis Wood and Peter Moylan this year. Logical.

P.S. Since career numbers are meaningless, here are the updated stats for this year now that both Herrera and Young have pitched today:

ERA: Herrera 4.26, Young 7.08
HR: Herrera 5, Young 5
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Old 05-21-2017, 06:28 PM   #1241
Mama Hip Rockets Mama Hip Rockets is offline
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Old 05-21-2017, 07:00 PM   #1242
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No, he's getting his fastball hammered
And why do you suppose that is?
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Old 05-21-2017, 07:47 PM   #1243
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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And why do you suppose that is?
Decreased velocity?
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Old 05-21-2017, 07:53 PM   #1244
Dartgod Dartgod is offline
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Originally Posted by Great Expectations View Post
Decreased velocity?
Well, if this is true...

Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie View Post
He's having trouble locating his secondary pitches right now.
Then maybe batters are sitting on his fastball?
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Old 05-21-2017, 08:10 PM   #1245
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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Well, if this is true...



Then maybe batters are sitting on his fastball?
He hasn't thought about triple digits this year and seems to be closer to 96.
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