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#11926 |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
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The CFR of this is definitely less than the current mortality rate, that's a given. But we'll never know what that actually is unless we want to test a subset of the population or do a serum test for antibodies to see if people had it and beat it.
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Posts: 46,568
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#11927 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 279,776
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#11928 |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
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Because the CFR and mortality rates both have nothing to do with active cases that have not yielded a recovery or a death. That's why.
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Posts: 46,568
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#11929 |
Kind of a mod
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
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Right. My point is that everyone talks about the "mortality rate" - even reputable media. They're almost all actually referring to CFRs.
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Posts: 52,054
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#11930 |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
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That's not what I'm saying at all. But when people just divide by deaths by total cases - that tells you nothing and they are doing it wrong. They aren't achieving what their goal is to do, but they think they are.
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Posts: 46,568
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#11931 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 182,466
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#11932 |
The Maintenance Guy
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Renovated Bugeater Estate
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Posts: 70,443
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#11933 |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
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Agreed. But mostly they are just guessing. And most people think the CFR is just divide deaths by total cases right now - and it's not.
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Posts: 46,568
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#11934 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 182,466
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#11935 | |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
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Quote:
That might be the case. It might not. You have to look further than that. You need to also look at the percentage of total cases that are still active. Those in intensive care. Those recovered AND deaths. The charts of when the new cases were found. If two countries have the same amount of cases, but yet one has ten times as many recovered cases. Your conclusion will be incorrect if you are just looking at cases and deaths. The struggle with interpreting data is real and I've seen almost nobody that is doing it right. Last edited by BWillie; 03-26-2020 at 03:34 PM.. |
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Posts: 46,568
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#11936 |
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Bigger question is how far understated are China's numbers? I would imagine, at least, they had 500,000 to 600,000 cases. Take 3% of that to get a more likely death total as well.
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Posts: 700
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#11937 |
I love your mom
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Sturgeon Falls, Ontario
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Posts: 6,645
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#11938 |
Draconian Warlord
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Drakonia
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Posts: 11,952
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#11939 | |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
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Quote:
At this point, I would definitely lean towards them being very under reported and censoring negative results. This would mean to me, and this is just a wild guess, that their true cases & mortality rates are both higher than reported. |
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Posts: 46,568
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#11940 |
best in the biz
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Under Pressure
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Posts: 71,640
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