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03-25-2020, 07:10 AM | #10801 | |
El Diablo
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Posts: 6,086
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03-25-2020, 07:30 AM | #10802 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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(CNN)A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work.
The CDC confirmed that Ira Longini, professor at the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, is a "funded partner." The agency said he works with them on Covid-19 modeling. Modeling is not precise, and uses known data to project trends in disease spread, and there were dissenting opinions expressed to CNN about Longini's analysis. Yet two other disease experts broadly agreed with the estimate. Longini's suggestion that US deaths could peak in less than a month will have two possible impacts. First, a sudden surge in deaths risks overwhelming health care systems that are currently struggling to prepare for cases needing intensive care. Longini said: "I would guess the US will hit a peak in deaths in the next two-three weeks, as the doubling time seems to be about two-three days." He added: "Maybe a partial lifting of the shelter-in-place for those less vulnerable may make some sense, in about three weeks. By then, much of the damage will have been done." Asked if there could be a risk of a relapse when the virus circulated again in the following weeks, he said: "If it were limited, and we continued to protect the most vulnerable, that may be acceptable for now. Also, let's see what happens in the next two-three weeks. We can also keep an eye on China as they begin to relax restrictions there." |
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03-25-2020, 07:33 AM | #10803 |
Cheat Death
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Land of Drincoln
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Posts: 35,359
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03-25-2020, 07:34 AM | #10804 | |
Best Body On ChiefsPlanet
Join Date: Jan 2014
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Posts: 6,115
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03-25-2020, 07:38 AM | #10805 |
Please squeeze
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
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Posts: 66,670
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03-25-2020, 07:40 AM | #10806 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 186,400
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03-25-2020, 07:41 AM | #10807 |
Someone pass the antifreeze
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Miami (North Cuba)
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Posts: 15,831
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03-25-2020, 07:42 AM | #10808 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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I would agree with that. This virus is not going to go away. We just have to bide our time until we get into a better place to deal with it. Once we start developing proven treatments and vaccines then it becomes the flu. Until then it's about keeping the hospitals running efficiently.
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03-25-2020, 07:48 AM | #10809 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Dr. Colyer from KU Med on Fox News right now. Yes, he is the former governor.
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Posts: 129,609
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03-25-2020, 07:49 AM | #10810 | |
Diablo Negro
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Take it for what its worth, this guy almost perfectly nailed the numbers for China. He could be way off, he could be mostly right.
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03-25-2020, 07:50 AM | #10811 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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unpossible, a bald guy with a goatee told me 20,000 deaths in US by next week
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03-25-2020, 07:52 AM | #10812 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Posts: 129,609
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03-25-2020, 07:53 AM | #10813 |
Diablo Negro
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Posts: 71,931
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03-25-2020, 07:53 AM | #10814 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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I wonder precisely what those clear signs are. |
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03-25-2020, 07:53 AM | #10815 |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2017
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