Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT?

[PunkinDrublic]

You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Long term statistical information. Utilizing a few prior drives as empirical evidence that they will fail or succeed THIS TIME is not statistically significant. It lacks sample size. I know coaches and fans like to rely on this as it is emotional and a "feeling in the gut" but it is not very relevant.

What it lacks in sample size it makes up for in context.

Football is not purely statistical, it is also contextual, and historical. Human beings aren't computers or dice.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Long term statistical information. Utilizing a few prior drives as empirical evidence that they will fail or succeed THIS TIME is not statistically significant. It lacks sample size. I know coaches and fans like to rely on this as it is emotional and a "feeling in the gut" but it is not very relevant.

Lemme see it. Go ahead and show your work.

From anything I can see, conversion rates on 4th and 1 are historically around 70% (a little less really; around 65% but runs are nearer 70% and Lynn almost certainly would've run it).

So you're gonna take a 30% chance of effectively being dead on arrival so you can get 4 new downs 65 yards away from the end-zone knowing full well that anything less than punching the ball in for 6 leaves you with the same 'shit, Mahomes just needs to get into FG range' situation?

Your ratios are off and you're ignoring a TON of context.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Lemme see it. Go ahead and show your work.

From anything I can see, conversion rates on 4th and 1 are historically around 70% (a little less really; around 65% but runs are nearer 70% and Lynn almost certainly would've run it).

So you're gonna take a 30% chance of effectively being dead on arrival so you can get 4 new downs 65 yards away from the end-zone knowing full well that anything less than punching the ball in for 6 leaves you with the same 'shit, Mahomes just needs to get into FG range' situation?

Your ratios are off and you're ignoring a TON of context.

THis.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

All anyone ever does is congratulate coaches for going for it on 4th downs. They get an attaboy for being aggressive even when it fails.

It's almost certainly how the Ravens put themselves in a hole they couldn't dig out of against the Titans in the playoffs last year. 2 failed 4th and 1 plays w/ the best running QB in NFL history on their roster. Both situations where someone would've said there's a 90% chance of conversion.

It's strange to me how outcomes get ignored on 4th down plays. When you just ignore the 'risk' part of the equation it sure makes it easy to say it's smart to go for it on 4th down.

Obviously, it depends on lots of factors like where you are at on the field, who you are playing and quarter etc. If you are in OT playing against Pat Mahomes you should probably got for it on any 4th and short until you are in FG range. The only exception I could think where I wouldn't go for it would be inside the 10 but I would have to think on it real hard.

Or if you had the 85 Bears D\or Raven SB D and the score was tied 0-0 or 3-3 something like that then yeah I would punt it but other than that I am going for it while playing against Mahomes.

[DJ's left nut]

And again, you're LESS likely to get a stop against Mahomes if you kick the FG.

By punting, if the Chiefs are facing 3rd and 5 at their own 35, if they don't convert 3rd down they'll punt on 4th. So you're not even having to play run really because you aren't terribly concerned they'll go for it that deep in their own territory on 4th.

But if you kick a FG and you're facing them on 3rd and 5 at their own 35, they could still hand the damn thing off knowing that they're going for it on 4th. So now you have to protect more against that and maybe Hill breaks free (again).

A FG for the Chargers in that scenario does almost NOTHING for them. They're better served trying to pin the Chiefs deep, hope you force the stop and then get the ball back when a FG WILL win you the game. By getting the ball first and ensuring that only a TD can keep the ball out of Mahomes hands, they were in a tough spot.

With a 30% chance of cutting their own throats, it's EASY to see why they punt it away. They just didn't have the firepower to assume that picking up that 1st was simply the first step towards the inevitable TD drive. And the likely scenarios put in place by a mere FG didn't do much to help their situation at all.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Lemme see it. Go ahead and show your work.

From anything I can see, conversion rates on 4th and 1 are historically around 70% (a little less really; around 65% but runs are nearer 70% and Lynn almost certainly would've run it).

So you're gonna take a 30% chance of effectively being dead on arrival so you can get 4 new downs 65 yards away from the end-zone knowing full well that anything less than punching the ball in for 6 leaves you with the same 'shit, Mahomes just needs to get into FG range' situation?

Your ratios are off and you're ignoring a TON of context.

Yes. You have to accept the fact that if you just don't get it, you lose. You lost. That was the game. If that is 30% of the time, so be it. Sometimes it is your time to die.

What chances do you give the best team & quarterback in football driving down the field with likely 4 downs to achieve AT LEAST 3 points?

[Skyy God]

There are some situations when there are no good choices but one of them can still be way better than the others. For example: Let’s say you’re on a boat, and the water is filled with icebergs, and you’re being chased by a giant killer shark, and the only person who knows how to pilot a boat has just been eaten by the giant killer shark. Your options are trying to pilot the boat through the icebergs or just letting the shark eat you. Even though you’ve never piloted a boat before, you gotta try to pilot the boat, because there’s a chance you might not die. The other option is getting eaten by a giant killer shark.

The Chargers chose to get eaten by the giant killer shark.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/9...-of-nfl-week-2

[lcarus]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

What it lacks in sample size it makes up for in context.

Football is not purely statistical, it is also contextual, and historical. Human beings aren't computers or dice.

Mahomes and Butker are dice. One always comes up 6 and the other always comes up 3!!!!

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And again, you're LESS likely to get a stop against Mahomes if you kick the FG.

By punting, if the Chiefs are facing 3rd and 5 at their own 35, if they don't convert 3rd down they'll punt on 4th. So you're not even having to play run really because you aren't terribly concerned they'll go for it that deep in their own territory on 4th.

But if you kick a FG and you're facing them on 3rd and 5 at their own 35, they could still hand the damn thing off knowing that they're going for it on 4th. So now you have to protect more against that and maybe Hill breaks free (again).

A FG for the Chargers in that scenario does almost NOTHING for them. They're better served trying to pin the Chiefs deep, hope you force the stop and then get the ball back when a FG WILL win you the game. By getting the ball first and ensuring that only a TD can keep the ball out of Mahomes hands, they were in a tough spot.

With a 30% chance of cutting their own throats, it's EASY to see why they punt it away. They just didn't have the firepower to assume that picking up that 1st was simply the first step towards the inevitable TD drive. And the likely scenarios put in place by a mere FG didn't do much to help their situation at all.

But maybe you are forgetting there is only 10 minutes in OT so if they go down and kick the FG there is probably not much time left.

[Deberg_1990]

I think punting was the right call. At least make the Chiefs work to win the game. The Chargers could have gotten a turnover or something. You never know.

[Chiefspants]

To me, the data seems to indicate that it was a 50/50 call.

The Chargers seem to have had an 80% of converting had they called a sneak, but their odds of winning were still dependent of them driving for a TD.

So to me, it all depends on the coach and their gut feeling. Personally, I’ve loved that Andy has become more aggressive in these situations with Pat and I think I will always prefer that coaches go for it in these 50/50 situations.

Just my two cents.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Anthony Lynn is a good NFL coach stuck in the unenviable position of being in the same division as a Hall of Fame Coach and maybe the greatest NFL QB of all time.

Before last season, his head coaching record with the Chargers was 21-11.

It's not his fault that the Chargers ownership and GM held onto Philip Rivers for too long.

Yes he is on our division which is all the more reason to be really aggressive. They have nothing to lose.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

You’re an idiot.

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-rep...on-of-football

I think you have me confused with the guy you see in the mirror.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

I think punting was the right call. At least make the Chiefs work to win the game. The Chargers could have gotten a turnover or something. You never know.

Exactly.

[Why Not?]

The other thing that a head coach has to consider, that fans don’t, is the message he is sending to his team. The Chargers defense looks legit. If they make the playoffs this year, it’ll be on the backs of their defense. If, as the HC, you go for it there, in effect you’re saying “Pat Mahomes and his crew are so much better than you guys as a unit, I’d rather risk losing the game on one play than sending you back on the field”. You could argue the reverse can then be said about the offense but way more times than not, coaches would punt there so at least you have a hundred years of history on your side.