Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT?

[PunkinDrublic]

You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

It would have been the right call if the Chiefs didn't have a dude with a cannon for a leg.

Yes, had it been around mid-field it's worth second guessing.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks

Exactly. Does anyone honestly feel that the Chargers didn't have about a 90% chance of picking up 1-2 yards in that situation? Our D played better in the 2nd half, but still. There's obviously a chance that we'd stop it and instantly be in FG position, but does anyone feel that chance was much greater than 10%? Weigh that against the odds that Mahomes leads a team 40-50 yards for the tying FG, which were much higher than 10%, imo.

Regardless, I'm glad the Dolts didn't see it the way I saw it.

Their running game was effectively neutralized on their last 2 drives, 4th quarter and overtime. The chance of them failing at that point was MUCH higher than 10%.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I think if Taylor had played the Chiefs would have won easier overall.

I agree. Herbert got 'em to overtime. But he was also a big factor in them not going for it after he screwed up the play at the line on 3rd and goal.

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Exactly.

Fail on that conversion and the Chiefs likely win on the very next play. Going for it was anything but a no-brainer. If anything, it was a no-win situation.

I think Lynn played field position because he knew that his offense was pretty solid on average but as you noted, the high degree of variance, especially in the 4th/OT, made any single 1-done play a coin-flip at best. Being able to chip off an average of 4-5 yards/play is one thing, KNOWING you'll be able to get 2 is another. I think he was hoping his defense would make one last stand and they'd be able to get back into that rhythm. Moreover, he still had 40 yards to go to get into FG range from that spot on the field - they were gonna have to find a rhythm anyway.

People presuming that the Chargers were just gonna march downfield after converting (and they'd have needed to score a TD to end it, mind you - a FG still gets Pat the ball back) are making a presumption (that they'd move the ball well from that point forward) that actually undercuts their argument.

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks

Exactly. Does anyone honestly feel that the Chargers didn't have about a 90% chance of picking up 1-2 yards in that situation? Our D played better in the 2nd half, but still. There's obviously a chance that we'd stop it and instantly be in FG position, but does anyone feel that chance was much greater than 10%? Weigh that against the odds that Mahomes leads a team 40-50 yards for the tying FG, which were much higher than 10%, imo.

Regardless, I'm glad the Dolts didn't see it the way I saw it.

NOBODY has a 90% chance of picking up 1-2 yards, especially with a rookie QB in an early-season game in OT when guys are just tired and you've blown through your 'good' plays. Remember - the most important thing in practices is time. You have a finite amount of it and only get so many reps. With as many plays as the Chargers had run to that point, they were almost certainly out of anything clever they could count on.

The more I think on it, the more I think Lynn did the right thing.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Their running game was effectively neutralized on their last 2 drives, 4th quarter and overtime. The chance of them failing at that point was MUCH higher than 10%.

I think the odds are a 2/3rds chance of converting 4th and 1's, and a 4/5ths chance if you call a QB sneak. Herbert is what, 6'5? Would have been tough to stop a straight sneak.

I agree that this was a tough call for Lynn, but I say that remembering how continually angry I was at Andy for passing up going for it on 4th and 1 against the Manning led Broncos in 2013-2015 (Game 1). Playing it safe NEVER seemed to work against an elite QB.

[RealSNR]

Anthony Lynn is a bad head coach.

Not because of this call, necessarily. He's just a bad coach period. I get that he's more a rah rah leadership kind of coach than an Xs and Os coach, but right now the Chargers need that kind of coach for their offense.

I don't care how many picks Philip Rivers threw last year. That record was inexcusable if you're anything other than one of those guys who just treads water and gets fired after a few years. Right now it's looking like he's more that kind of coach than a successful one.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

ESPN's win probability model did not have an issue with Anthony Lynn's decision to punt on 4th and 1 in overtime.

WP go = 0.444
WP punt = 0.445

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 20, 2020

This is not taking into account the Chiefs offense and instead relying on population data. Granted, it's not a great position to be in for the Chargers. It's a decision where if you are playing the Jets it really doesn't matter what you do. There isn't a big difference either way, as this graphic is showing. But when you start inputting data for potent offenses, especially passing ones in this situation, it should be a clear go for it. Vs the Chiefs, Ravens, Saints, Bucs, Cowboys....go for for it. Vs Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield...you CAN punt.

[lcarus]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You know why you don't go for it on 4th-and-1 right there?'

-1
1
1
-1
2

Know what those are? The yardage results of the 5 previous Charger running plays in the 4th quarter and OT.

The Chargers has 4th and goal at the 4 and had to settle for a FG.

There was absolutely no guarantee the Chargers could get 1 yard at that point - the momentum of the game had changed. If it weren't for a roughing penalty on Chris Jones, the Chargers offense was completely inept at the end of the game.

That's interesting. It felt like they just couldn't be stopped all day, but I guess it's true that the defense did step up there in clutch time.

There's also the point that the Chargers would've needed a TD to win. A FG and the Chiefs are still getting the ball back with a chance to win or tie.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by lcarus

That's interesting. It felt like they just couldn't be stopped all day, but I guess it's true that the defense did step up there in clutch time.

There's also the point that the Chargers would've needed a TD to win. A FG and the Chiefs are still getting the ball back with a chance to win or tie.

And in 4-down territory because they know what they have to manage.

So unless you're Lynn and you think you can drive down for a TD, you have to figure it's a foregone conclusion that Mahomes w/ 4 downs the entire way, will be able to get them at least back into FG range.

You're gonna risk a 4th down play where you have about a 90% chance of losing if you fail for THAT?

The reward just wasn't great enough. It isn't just that the Chiefs get it so close to scoring, but that even a conversion leaves you a damn long ways away from a W still.

Lynn made the right decision, IMO.

[SuperBowl4]

because their not PunkinDrublic

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And in 4-down territory because they know what they have to manage.

So unless you're Lynn and you think you can drive down for a TD, you have to figure it's a foregone conclusion that Mahomes w/ 4 downs the entire way, will be able to get them at least back into FG range.

You're gonna risk a 4th down play where you have about a 90% chance of losing if you fail for THAT?

The reward just wasn't great enough. It isn't just that the Chiefs get it so close to scoring, but that even a conversion leaves you a damn long ways away from a W still.

Lynn made the right decision, IMO.

Exactly.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And in 4-down territory because they know what they have to manage.

So unless you're Lynn and you think you can drive down for a TD, you have to figure it's a foregone conclusion that Mahomes w/ 4 downs the entire way, will be able to get them at least back into FG range.

You're gonna risk a 4th down play where you have about a 90% chance of losing if you fail for THAT?

The reward just wasn't great enough. It isn't just that the Chiefs get it so close to scoring, but that even a conversion leaves you a damn long ways away from a W still.

Lynn made the right decision, IMO.

Just because they hadn't been very successful that day on short yardage doesn't mean that same percentage would carry over to this decision. There is absolutely no way they had a 90% chance of not picking it up.

That is like watching the roulette history and seeing it's hit red four times in a row, so deciding to bet on red. It's fools bet.

[Bearcat]

On one hand, when the analytics say it's a toss up, that's when a human needs to look across the field at #15 as a determining factor.

OTOH, there are many valid points in this thread on why it's not a no-brainer... if you don't make it, the Chiefs are already in FG range, and the Chargers were struggling a bit on offense at that point. Plus, it took the Chiefs 13 plays to go less than 40 yards, including their own 4th down conversion and of course multiple FG attempts.... it's not like the Chiefs steamrolled them and really made them look foolish for their decision.

IMO, if the Chargers were maybe only ~10 yards further downfield, the decision becomes much clearer to go for it. There's still part of me that thinks going for it is decidedly playing to win, versus playing for a tie or not-to-lose at that point... and as the clear underdog, why the hell not? But, I get the decision to punt though.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Their coach is a coward. No other answer. Going for it was absolutely the higher percentage play and every analytics person would tell you so.

I was saying the same thing yesterday. The coach played "not to lose" instead of trying to win. Zero imagination 1st and goal in the 4th and settled for a FG, then punting on 4th and 1 in OT with Mahomes and company and the best kicker in football waiting on the other side. Winners dont play that way. For 3 and 1/2 quarters it was the Chargers game to take but they never went for the kill.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Just because they hadn't been very successful that day on short yardage doesn't mean that same percentage would carry over to this decision. There is absolutely no way they had a 90% chance of not picking it up.

That is like watching the roulette history and seeing it's hit red four times in a row, so deciding to bet on red. It's fools bet.

Except that a roulette wheel is random chance. Failing on short yardage is a combination of energy, talent and execution. Past performance is the best indicator of future results. You can't just claim a gambler's fallacy in a skill-based situation.

Again - they'd failed in exactly that scenario repeatedly and all you want to say is "Well it's still 90% likely they'd have picked it up..."

Based on what? You have absolutely no support for that argument. You gonna try to say "they were due" and pretend that's not exactly the kind of thing you're arguing against right now?

And again, even if they do convert, THEN what? They have 60+ yards to go to score when they'd put up zero touchdowns since the first half.

The end result very clearly wasn't worth the risk.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jdubya

I was saying the same thing yesterday. The coach played "not to lose" instead of trying to win. Zero imagination 1st and goal in the 4th and settled for a FG, then punting on 4th and 1 in OT with Mahomes and company and the best kicker in football waiting on the other side. Winners dont play that way. For 3 and 1/2 quarters it was the Chargers game to take but they never went for the kill.

THIS was Lynn's biggest sin and by a fair amount, IMO.

Score a TD there and the Chiefs have biiiiiiig problems. And when he got it down to the 4, you thought for sure they would.

And Lynn did nothing. Even on the play that Herbert botched, the play was vanilla as hell.

There needed to be at least some kind of T eligible play-action play in there. There needed to be SOMETHING to take advantage of how poorly the LBs had been operating in read/react situations all day.

That's where Lynn truly screwed the pooch, IMO.