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Old 01-20-2019, 08:10 AM   #2
RealSNR RealSNR is offline
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
If we win today, we'll have done so while putting a pile of whatsit on the field on defense all season, the last two games notwithstanding.

No, we don't want to do that to Mahomes for the rest of his career, but it probably behooves us to get those extensions done and hope Veach is damn good at drafting defense.

We can get to the Super Bowl with a great passrush and offensive weapons out the ass. So let's try to stick to that formula as much as possible when add new players in the future. Robbing our pass rush or sacrificing the murderer's row of WRs and playmakers on offense all so we can START to rebuild our run defense will likely result in a transition year in which we don't do anything at an elite level, and we still won't be guaranteed to one day produce that effective run defense. It's dangerous.

Our effective changes are just going to have to come through a change in defensive coaching. Simplifying the scheme so young players can make a greater impact earlier in their careers and putting the pieces we DO have in better positions to play well. That's going to have to be the main source of defensive improvement.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:24 AM   #3
O.city O.city is online now
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I think you need to look for guys that are more filler in free agency than actual flash.

Maybe a guy on the tail end of his career or a young guy that just didn't fit where he got drafted.

Shane Ray fits that profile, but if he weren't from MU, I doubt anyone would be that enamored there.

Someone like Mo Wilkerson coming off an injury for a prove it deal could be interesting.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:58 AM   #4
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Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:47 PM   #5
The Franchise The Franchise is offline
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Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.
Earl Thomas is going to run straight for Dallas when he hits FA.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:50 PM   #6
Chargem Chargem is offline
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Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.
I think a few mock drafts on here have show you can squeeze a big free agent in and extend Jones and Hill, but resigning Ford sort of counts as that big re-signing.

You're probably creating a situation where you definitely can't touch FA in 2020, but they kind of made that bed when they signed Watkins.

I just made this on Spotrac, this is the roster only re-signing ERFA/RFA but giving Hill and Jones extensions per the recent KCCrow mock - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/ro...4165d70361fb5/

It gives $24m to play with but for that, you need to make a decision on Ford and then make tons of little re-signings like maybe bring Devey back for line depth or Sherman or DAT

Question for DJ I guess - do you let Ford walk if moving to a 4-3?
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:31 PM   #7
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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I think a few mock drafts on here have show you can squeeze a big free agent in and extend Jones and Hill, but resigning Ford sort of counts as that big re-signing.

You're probably creating a situation where you definitely can't touch FA in 2020, but they kind of made that bed when they signed Watkins.

I just made this on Spotrac, this is the roster only re-signing ERFA/RFA but giving Hill and Jones extensions per the recent KCCrow mock - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/ro...4165d70361fb5/

It gives $24m to play with but for that, you need to make a decision on Ford and then make tons of little re-signings like maybe bring Devey back for line depth or Sherman or DAT

Question for DJ I guess - do you let Ford walk if moving to a 4-3?
No because he could be used well as a Will linebacker in a 4-3, IMO and frankly we play so much 2-4-5 anyway that it probably doesn't matter. We effectively spend half the game in some version of a 4-3 anyway when we play our 2-4-5 sets and just line Houston and Ford out on wider splits. Then against the Colts we actually played some 4 man fronts with 5 and 6 guys along the line (4 DL and walked Ford/Houston along the edges).

He'd be utilized just fine in a 4-3 but ultimately our OLB use is so fluid that it just may not matter anymore.
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Old 01-16-2019, 06:48 PM   #8
Walt White Walt White is offline
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I love Ford, but I have a hard time paying any one player that much outside of Mahomes. I guess I'm fine with it, but it's risky if he falls off or gets hurt and we are stuck with him when all the money is tied up in one player.

That is why I'm not against finding a decent replacement through trade or FA and using the cap to bring back multiple defensive players. That could mitigate the risk and make the defense better overall. If we can keep Ford and not jeopardize the future or depth, that is fine. Just something to consider.

All I know is that we really have to make the most of our cap space while Mahomes is on his rookie contract.
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Old 01-17-2019, 09:47 AM   #9
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I think we would be foolish not to tag Ford, especially since he appears to be fine playing on it. You would think his agent would be pushing him hard to test the market, because as mentioned earlier there is a ton of FA money and he would get PAID.


I think teams, especially teams like the Chiefs, need to use their FA money to secure players like Hill, Jones, and Ford, and try to find some deals to add depth.
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Old 01-17-2019, 04:16 PM   #10
Chargem Chargem is offline
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Few days old now, but apparently the Chiefs are unlikely to tag Ford https://www.profootballrumors.com/20...o-tag-dee-ford

The article doesn't specify if that means he's getting a contract or walking.
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Old 01-17-2019, 04:37 PM   #11
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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That 'report' (sigh...it's come to this; baselessly expounding on an uncorroborated tweet is now a 'report' for all intents and purposes) doesn't provide enough context to matter.

Because it doesn't do anything to clear up whether or not that means they're leaning towards negotiating a long-term deal or not.

Does anyone here want to make a bet on whether or not he reaches the open market? Anyone at all? Of course not - because if they can't get him re-signed, there's nobody else to actually use the tag on. And if their plan is to let him walk rather than re-sign him, why on God's green earth would they not tag him and trade him? Because OF COURSE he'll have a market as a trade asset on the tag.

That snippet is just pretty much useless and doesn't make any sense on its face. I am 100% certain they'll either extend him or tag him. There's no way they just let him get to FA and take a 3rd rounder in 2020 as a comp pick in exchange when they can easily get a 2nd and potentially a 1st for him in the upcoming draft.
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Old 01-18-2019, 12:29 PM   #12
Chargem Chargem is offline
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That 'report' (sigh...it's come to this; baselessly expounding on an uncorroborated tweet is now a 'report' for all intents and purposes) doesn't provide enough context to matter.

Because it doesn't do anything to clear up whether or not that means they're leaning towards negotiating a long-term deal or not.

Does anyone here want to make a bet on whether or not he reaches the open market? Anyone at all? Of course not - because if they can't get him re-signed, there's nobody else to actually use the tag on. And if their plan is to let him walk rather than re-sign him, why on God's green earth would they not tag him and trade him? Because OF COURSE he'll have a market as a trade asset on the tag.

That snippet is just pretty much useless and doesn't make any sense on its face. I am 100% certain they'll either extend him or tag him. There's no way they just let him get to FA and take a 3rd rounder in 2020 as a comp pick in exchange when they can easily get a 2nd and potentially a 1st for him in the upcoming draft.
Oh I agree the "report" was trash.

On the tag and trade point, maybe I'm just thinking how I would feel as the player but I'm just not sure it's that likely. From the players point of view, you're just limiting their market which limits their contract potentially - I don't think I'd be signing a tag until well after the draft if I was a player.

Have there been many tag and trades in the last few years that I am forgetting?
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Old 01-18-2019, 08:10 AM   #13
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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I'm kind of leaning towards this-

**** FA. Re-sign and extend your playmakers, let guys go that aren't worth their cap # (guys like Sorensen) and draft to re-stock. 2nd tier FA's maybe, to fill spots and compete with the young guys and draftees. Keep the core of the offense intact for the next several seasons and draft defense and o-line.
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Old 01-18-2019, 09:14 AM   #14
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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I'm kind of leaning towards this-

**** FA. Re-sign and extend your playmakers, let guys go that aren't worth their cap # (guys like Sorensen) and draft to re-stock. 2nd tier FA's maybe, to fill spots and compete with the young guys and draftees. Keep the core of the offense intact for the next several seasons and draft defense and o-line.
I'm not sure I'd even limit it to 'playmakers' though it tends to work out the same way. Right now I like to look at guys who are simply a little unique.

For instance, Houston is a great player who's been huge for us in this run...but he's not truly a unique guy at this stage in his career. Meanwhile Dee Ford has a first step and get off that nobody in the league really has.

Sammy Watkins is a very good player when healthy but he doesn't have a standout tool; he's just very good in many ways. Meanwhile Tyreek Hill has Tyreek Hill speed.

Chris Jones isn't exactly unique because he exists in a world where Aaron Donald is a thing. But without Aaron Donald, Chris Jones would be something of a unicorn in his own right.

Target those guys who present novel matchup problems first. Get them extended and then look at how you keep the guys who do the same things as everyone else but maybe a little bit better (Fuller, Watkins, Houston, Berry). You'll be able to keep some of those guys still, but not all of them. The guys to make sure you do not lose are the ones that just create uniquely difficult matchups by virtue of some standout skill, IMO.
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Old 01-18-2019, 10:24 AM   #15
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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I'm kind of leaning towards this-

**** FA. Re-sign and extend your playmakers, let guys go that aren't worth their cap # (guys like Sorensen) and draft to re-stock. 2nd tier FA's maybe, to fill spots and compete with the young guys and draftees. Keep the core of the offense intact for the next several seasons and draft defense and o-line.
That's good in theory. And I'm totally down with not paying high ****ing dollar free agents. Man, there is real money being spent on either shit or no production. But relying on FA's for production is going to happen, like it or not - there is just too much turnover to not.

But like I keep saying, it comes down to production per unit Salary Cap.

I look back at the Sean Smith contract, and he was definitely worth 5.5 per. Is Josh Norman worth 15? I'd say resoundingly no. Even further down the list, is Talib worth 10? I'm thinking not.

I'd rather get 3 Sean Smtih's than 1 Josh Norman, even if you drafted Norman.

And drafting is super important because those are by far the cheapest dollars and any production at all is a huge value. But being smart with non-rookie deal money is the most important thing here. Whether you drafted them or not.

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