David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Last year's Chief team was better than this years. Who doesn't think that?

Disagree. (just talking offense)

Hill and Kelce are much further along than they were last season.
Hunt > Ware (and I'm a big fan of both)
The playcalling with Nagy this season has been very beneficial.

even Albert Wilson has been better.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

Disagree. (just talking offense)

Hill and Kelce are much further along than they were last season.
Hunt > Ware (and I'm a big fan of both)
The playcalling with Nagy this season has been very beneficial.

even Albert Wilson has been better.

The offense is better, but the defense and special teams are worse, and the offense has shown it can revert at any time.

This is a worse team with a harder road. Good luck.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

The offense is better

so you agree. Just leave it at that, ****face.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Cassel full on sucked the big one minus a fluke 2010 season.

Smith doesn't "suck' he just isn't going to carry a team, at least not for an entire playoff run.

I think most fans wanted us to draft a QB for a long time, we don't have any control over that though.

Thank God it finally happened and it appears it may have been worth the long wait.

I agree. Finally there is some hope.

Originally Posted by Best22

I actually think we are better this year

Atleast I actually feel like we can beat anybody this year. Didn't feel that in 2016

2016 had a soft (and declining) defense and limp offense

2017 has a weak (but improving) defense and a top 5 offense

I like the 2017 teams chances better in the playoffs. Atleast we are good at something. 2016 wasn't good at anything except turnovers

I guess. After the first 5-6 games I thought this was a legit SB team but that 5 game losing skid against some of the worst teams in the NFL just killed any thought of that for me. Outside of beating the Chargers twice we haven't beat a team with a winning record since Week 2.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I agree. Finally there is some hope.



I guess. After the first 5-6 games I thought this was a legit SB team but that 5 game losing skid against some of the worst teams in the NFL just killed any thought of that for me. Outside of beating the Chargers twice we haven't beat a team with a winning record since Week 2.

We had a stretch where we lost to bad teams (unusual for Reid's Chiefs).

Then we finished up by dominating everyone. We played three straight teams desperate for playoffs. Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, and beat them all in dominating fashion.

You have to remember most everyone picked the Chargers to win that game as they were a red hot team. They were favored to win the division. The Chiefs dominating 30-13 win was a shocker. KC took control of the game and let LA know who ran the division. Chargers are a playoff team, unless we sweep them. And we did

KC can beat Tennessee. They've already beaten New England. And as long as we don't play scared vs Pittsburgh, we can beat them too

There are no juggernauts in the AFC

[Shields68]

Originally Posted by Best22

I actually think we are better this year

Atleast I actually feel like we can beat anybody this year. Didn't feel that in 2016

2016 had a soft (and declining) defense and limp offense

2017 has a weak (but improving) defense and a top 5 offense

I like the 2017 teams chances better in the playoffs. Atleast we are good at something. 2016 wasn't good at anything except turnovers

We are better offensively. Hunt and Hill are difference makers.

Defensively, the loss of Barry hurts. But we had no real MLB to fill in once DJ went down last year. Playing Pitt without a good MLB was tough. Basically this year we need to find a way to get pressure on the QB, if we do that our Dee is going to be good. The problem is that we have not shown any ability to do that against a good OL.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Best22

We had a stretch where we lost to bad teams (unusual for Reid's Chiefs).

Then we finished up by dominating everyone. We played three straight teams desperate for playoffs. Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, and beat them all in dominating fashion.

You have to remember most everyone picked the Chargers to win that game as they were a red hot team. They were favored to win the division. The Chiefs dominating 30-13 win was a shocker. KC took control of the game and let LA know who ran the division. Chargers are a playoff team, unless we sweep them. And we did

KC can beat Tennessee. They've already beaten New England. And as long as we don't play scared vs Pittsburgh, we can beat them too

There are no juggernauts in the AFC

We also beat those teams at home. I am mostly confidant they can beat the Titans but then again it wouldn't surprise me in the least that they turtle up and lose the game either. I am definitely not confidant this team can go on the road and win a playoff game.

[Hammock Parties]

This team, under Reid, has always been able to "beat anybody."

In 2014 they beat the Pats and Seahawks.

But they can also lose to anybody and in important games, they lose to the elite QBs. Didn't matter if it was Luck, Manning, Brady or Roethlisberger.

Those traits have been the dominant ones when it has counted so why should it change?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

This team, under Reid, has always been able to "beat anybody."

In 2014 they beat the Pats and Seahawks.

But they can also lose to anybody and in important games, they lose to the elite QBs. Didn't matter if it was Luck, Manning, Brady or Roethlisberger.

Those traits have been the dominant ones when it has counted so why should it change?

yup

[hitchief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

We also beat those teams at home. I am mostly confidant they can beat the Titans but then again it wouldn't surprise me in the least that they turtle up and lose the game either. I am definitely not confidant this team can go on the road and win a playoff game.

I don't know why more people don't realize or give most of the blame for the regression in the O during the losing streak to losing 3 interior Oline

Very straight forward as the oline went bye bye due to injuries so did the running game (just look at Hunts numbers). Also the passing game suffered as we could not run the ball for much more than a 2 yard average. No running game = no play action which is a staple of the WCO.

once Fulton went to C, and LT was back at full strength, the oline improved dramatically and so did Hunts and Alex's numbers = simple.

Plus Nagy's play calling was a breath of fresh air as Andy had hit a wall with his playcalling.

I really think this O is gonna step up in the playoffs this year and it will be needed as the D is the main worry IMO.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

The offense is better, but the defense and special teams are worse, and the offense has shown it can revert at any time.

This is a worse team with a harder road. Good luck.

Still had a top 4 dvoa special teams though and the defense statistically wasn’t that much worse than last year iirc and maybe better in some spots

They lost 2 more games this year but won 2 last year where a ball bounced thru the uprights after hitting one and had s pick 2 on a 2 point conversion

If the offense hadn’t no showed in New York or against buffalo or te s makes one stop in New York or Oakland it’s a different loom

Thus the nfl

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by hitchief

I don't know why more people don't realize or give most of the blame for the regression in the O during the losing streak to losing 3 interior Oline

Very straight forward as the oline went bye bye due to injuries so did the running game (just look at Hunts numbers). Also the passing game suffered as we could not run the ball for much more than a 2 yard average. No running game = no play action which is a staple of the WCO.

once Fulton went to C, and LT was back at full strength, the oline improved dramatically and so did Hunts and Alex's numbers = simple.

Plus Nagy's play calling was a breath of fresh air as Andy had hit a wall with his playcalling.

I really think this O is gonna step up in the playoffs this year and it will be needed as the D is the main worry IMO.

The biggest difference maker has been that Alex the past few games has punished defenses who put 8 in the box with tyreek. Not minimalizing better ol play. But it's far from the biggest factor.

[Chiefnj2]

Nagy is better at play calling than Reid. The calls also seem to be getting in a little faster.

KC can remain competitive with anyone if:

1. Alex is having a "downfield" day.
2. No stupid penalties by the OL putting the team in bad down/distance.
3. The defense tackles.

[KINGPIN CHIEFS FAN]

Originally Posted by Best22

We had a stretch where we lost to bad teams (unusual for Reid's Chiefs).

Then we finished up by dominating everyone. We played three straight teams desperate for playoffs. Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, and beat them all in dominating fashion.

You have to remember most everyone picked the Chargers to win that game as they were a red hot team. They were favored to win the division. The Chiefs dominating 30-13 win was a shocker. KC took control of the game and let LA know who ran the division. Chargers are a playoff team, unless we sweep them. And we did

KC can beat Tennessee. They've already beaten New England. And as long as we don't play scared vs Pittsburgh, we can beat them too

There are no juggernauts in the AFC

There's only one person who plays scared against Pittsburgh and we all know who that is. He will be the key as to how far the Chiefs go this year in the playoffs. It's not rocket science.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by KINGPIN CHIEFS FAN

There's only one person who plays scared against Pittsburgh and we all know who that is. He will be the key as to how far the Chiefs go this year in the playoffs. It's not rocket science.

That's my concern as well. I think we can at least keep pace with new England. He's been flat out stumped in the past by Pittsburgh. He'll have to go through lebeau for sure and probably Pittsburgh itself. Maybe the new look Alex found something to beat that zone blitz. I hope so. But I'm skeptical.