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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Did you even watch the ****ing game?

Our starting QB does the OPPOSITE.

That's a QB who isn't afraid. He stands in there fearless, in pure attack mode.

I was thoroughly impressed with his play INSIDE the pocket yesterday, which so many have questioned at times.

O.city · 01-01-2018, 08:07 PM

Smith just had the best season of his career. They’ll never get a better return than after this season

You guys are over complicating this

arrwheader · 01-01-2018, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Alex will be a Chief next year. Because Mahomes isn't ready. Write that in Red all over your walls ! Reid knows that it takes time to develop a quarterback because he is smart. Be patient.

Pocket awareness is one of the most important skill for a QB. You see all the great ones make one step here or there that is the difference between a sack and a completion

It's not what Mahomes can do (As he can do a lot) but it's whether he can do what solid QBs do such as staying strong in the pocket when the situation calls for it instead of scrambling and throwing ints.

Um. Did you watch the game yesterday?

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Where you getting your info from?
Far as we know Reid said after the draft that "Alex knows what he needs to do"
so how does that imply PMII is taking over the team?

Smith delivered: TOP NFL QB Rating

Your rebuttal?

Top NFL passer rating... sounds like a fantastic starting point for trade negotiations.

Andy and the staff knew they had something special BEFORE yesterday. That's why you have guys like Lou Riddick, Schefter, etc talking about how they are hearing amazing things about the Kid. The performance only reinforced what they already knew.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 08:13 PM

Because ESPN didn't jerk off Andrew luck for 3 years, right. How'd that turn out?

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Because ESPN didn't jerk off Andrew luck for 3 years, right. How'd that turn out?

He's..... hurt? Lol

He's still a really good player who hasn't been surrounded with any talent from a whole team perspective. They will be right up there as AFC competition for years to come if he's healthy.

**Easy 6** · 01-01-2018, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Did you even watch the ****ing game?

Our starting QB does the OPPOSITE.

The best thing about all of these, is that none of them were glitzy bombs... nope, just incredible accuracy and balls on the kinds of intermediate throws NFL QBs are expected to make

'Its too early to crown him!'

The hell it is... he has been doing the same damn thing since atleast his college freshman year, the body of work speaks for itself, he is what he has proven to be

Favre, Rodgers, it doesnt matter who you compare him to... the truth is that he is for REAL

ChiefsCountry · 01-01-2018, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

I'm confused. What was amazing about a 0TD game and that awful performance against the Seahawks backups?

The kid isn't Russell Wilson. RW came out of college a winner with experience against good teams. A natural born leader with exceptional maturity. Mahomes won't be on that level until at least age 25, likely because of his discipline and lack of experience of playing on a highly competitive level. We saw it with his decision-making yesterday. Things that make a coach go nuts.

OKchiefs · 01-01-2018, 08:23 PM

The Alex fans know the end is near and they're freaking out.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Did you even watch the ****ing game?

Our starting QB does the OPPOSITE.

The kid is a natural for sure. He is making strides, no doubt. The 2nd gif in particular where he drops back then climbs back up in the pocket tells me that the kid has been working hard to improve his game.

Regardless, I don't think he pulls the trigger on Mahomes just yet unless Alex either struggles or gets injured. It's not the way Andy works. It would be uncharacteristic of Reid IMO

bigjosh · 01-01-2018, 08:28 PM

This place is especially full of reeruns since yesterday.

Repeat after me. Alex Smith will not play for the Chiefs in 2018.

St. Patty's Fire · 01-01-2018, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

The Alex fans know the end is near and they're freaking out.

They're in the first stage of grief. Denial.

BigCatDaddy · 01-01-2018, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnDONsey

They're in the first stage of grief. Denial.

That aint no shit.. pure panic mode has set in.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

The kid is a natural for sure. He is making strides, no doubt. The 2nd gif in particular where he drops back then climbs back up in the pocket tells me that the kid has been working hard to improve his game.

Regardless, I don't think he pulls the trigger on Mahomes just yet unless Alex either struggles or gets injured. It's not the way Andy works. It would be uncharacteristic of Reid IMO

Yep. Reid's got his slow cooker going for the kid. We don't even know his durability and are without a viable backup if he were to go down. 2 playoff wins and Smith more than likely stays.

Best22 · 01-01-2018, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Alex will be a Chief next year. Because Mahomes isn't ready. Write that in Red all over your walls ! Reid knows that it takes time to develop a quarterback because he is smart. Be patient.

Pocket awareness is one of the most important skill for a QB. You see all the great ones make one step here or there that is the difference between a sack and a completion

It's not what Mahomes can do (As he can do a lot) but it's whether he can do what solid QBs do such as staying strong in the pocket when the situation calls for it instead of scrambling and throwing ints.

There are legit criticisms for Mahomes, but pocket awareness is not one of them.

He has more than Alex Smith

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

01-01-2018, 08:07 PM	#602
O.city In Search of a Life O.city's Avatar Join Date: Jul 2009	Smith just had the best season of his career. They’ll never get a better return than after this season You guys are over complicating this
Posts: 81,428

01-01-2018, 08:13 PM	#605
TigeRRUppeRRcut Banned Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: 19th Hole	Because ESPN didn't jerk off Andrew luck for 3 years, right. How'd that turn out?
Posts: 11,680

01-01-2018, 08:23 PM	#609
OKchiefs Black Bob's daddy OKchiefs's Avatar Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: under the sun	The Alex fans know the end is near and they're freaking out.
Posts: 5,189

01-01-2018, 08:28 PM	#611
bigjosh Mahomosapien bigjosh's Avatar Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: the great white north	This place is especially full of reeruns since yesterday. Repeat after me. Alex Smith will not play for the Chiefs in 2018.
Posts: 6,038	1 0