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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

**The Franchise** · 01-01-2018, 07:46 PM

Wow. QBR. Give that man his gold jacket.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Oh right you mean the reality where you and the idiots like DJLN said Smith wouldn't continue to improve going into year five? Said he was afraid to throw downfield.

Dude just finished with the #1 QB rating.

GREAT take their, genius.

I actually said Smith would have a career year, so go ahead and kiss my ass...

It's sad that it took the stud young rook to finally get Smith to play up to his potential. I'm glad he did though, that trade value is looking pretty good...

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 07:48 PM

David Carr wrote this to **** with the Chiefs fan base. Y'all fell for the clickbait. He was trying to help his sad/pathetic brother out. Clearly Reid doesn't fall for David Carr's shit.

St. Patty's Fire · 01-01-2018, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

GREAT take their, genius.

It's okay champ. You may not always (read: ever) be right, but at least you can be unintentionally ironic.

**Easy 6** · 01-01-2018, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

If you're going into this with more than cautious optimism than you are setting yourself up for major failure. We saw what RG3, Luck, Newton did to start off their careers and they have fallen apart since. The kid hasn't even finished a meaningful game and we are already crowning him.

Calm. The. ****. Down. People.

The kid hasnt missed a beat

College

Preseason

First NFL start with a bunch of backups on the road

It doesnt matter because its all been exactly the same

The circumstances havent fazed him one bit, he just keeps on making the same amazeballs plays no matter the league or team... when a guy is consistently great, he is consistently great

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6

The kid hasnt missed a beat

College

Preseason

First NFL start with a bunch of backups on the road

It doesnt matter because its all been exactly the same

The circumstances havent fazed him one bit, he just keeps on making the same amazeballs plays no matter the league or team... when a guy is consistently great, he is consistently great

I'm confused. What was amazing about a 0TD game and that awful performance against the Seahawks backups?

The kid isn't Russell Wilson. RW came out of college a winner with experience against good teams. A natural born leader with exceptional maturity. Mahomes won't be on that level until at least age 25, likely because of his discipline and lack of experience of playing on a highly competitive level. We saw it with his decision-making yesterday. Things that make a coach go nuts.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

I'm confused. What was amazing about a 0TD game and that awful performance against the Seahawks backups?

The kid isn't Russell Wilson. RW came out of college a winner with experience against good teams. A natural born leader with exceptional maturity. Mahomes won't be on that level until at least age 25, likely because of his discipline and lack of experience of playing on a highly competitive level.

I tell you what Tigger... you keep on rooting against the Kid, you keep on hoping and praying for him to fail... and I'll keep on rooting for the CHIEFS to win in the playoffs because I am a CHIEFS fan, not an Alex Smith fan...

Enjoy this final month watching this team led by Smith. It's the last ride.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Smith won’t be here next year

Why is this a discussion.?

Alex will be a Chief next year. Because Mahomes isn't ready. Write that in Red all over your walls ! Reid knows that it takes time to develop a quarterback because he is smart. Be patient.

Pocket awareness is one of the most important skill for a QB. You see all the great ones make one step here or there that is the difference between a sack and a completion

It's not what Mahomes can do (As he can do a lot) but it's whether he can do what solid QBs do such as staying strong in the pocket when the situation calls for it instead of scrambling and throwing ints.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I tell you what Tigger... you keep on rooting against the Kid, you keep on hoping and praying for him to fail... and I'll keep on rooting for the CHIEFS to win in the playoffs because I am a CHIEFS fan, not an Alex Smith fan...

Enjoy this final month watching this team led by Smith. It's the last ride.

Again you make up shit and deny that you have been on railing on Smith for the last year. You made that bet with me because you expected Smith to decline. The opposite happened. Own it.

Hammock Parties · 01-01-2018, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

It's not what Mahomes can do (As he can do a lot) but it's whether he can do what solid QBs do such as staying strong in the pocket when the situation calls for it instead of scrambling and throwing ints.

Did you even watch the ****ing game?

Our starting QB does the OPPOSITE.

mnchiefsguy · 01-01-2018, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

I'm confused. What was amazing about a 0TD game and that awful performance against the Seahawks backups?

The kid isn't Russell Wilson. RW came out of college a winner with experience against good teams. A natural born leader with exceptional maturity. Mahomes won't be on that level until at least age 25, likely because of his discipline and lack of experience of playing on a highly competitive level. We saw it with his decision-making yesterday. Things that make a coach go nuts.

Bullshit. Mahomes has shown nothing but maturity and good leadership skills in his time here.

Keep smoking that weed tigger.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Again you make up shit and deny that you have been on railing on Smith for the last year. You made that bet with me because you expected Smith to decline. The opposite happened. Own it.

I made that bet because I knew it didn't matter what Smith did this year, he's getting shipped out of town. Sell high, kid. Been telling you this for a week.

You don't leave a Ferrari in the garage for another year when it costs you $17M less to do so. He gone.

O.city · 01-01-2018, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Alex will be a Chief next year. Because Mahomes isn't ready. Write that in Red all over your walls ! Reid knows that it takes time to develop a quarterback because he is smart. Be patient.

Pocket awareness is one of the most important skill for a QB. You see all the great ones make one step here or there that is the difference between a sack and a completion

It's not what Mahomes can do (As he can do a lot) but it's whether he can do what solid QBs do such as staying strong in the pocket when the situation calls for it instead of scrambling and throwing ints.

Yeah, um, ok

Did you watch the game?

**Easy 6** · 01-01-2018, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

I'm confused. What was amazing about a 0TD game and that awful performance against the Seahawks backups?

The kid isn't Russell Wilson. RW came out of college a winner with experience against good teams. A natural born leader with exceptional maturity. Mahomes won't be on that level until at least age 25, likely because of his discipline and lack of experience of playing on a highly competitive level. We saw it with his decision-making yesterday. Things that make a coach go nuts.

... Daddy tried, back to the RR you go

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I made that bet because I knew it didn't matter what Smith did this year, he's getting shipped out of town. Sell high, kid. Been telling you this for a week.

You don't leave a Ferrari in the garage for another year when it costs you $17M less to do so. He gone.

Where you getting your info from?
Far as we know Reid said after the draft that "Alex knows what he needs to do"
so how does that imply PMII is taking over the team?

Smith delivered: TOP NFL QB Rating

Your rebuttal?

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

01-01-2018, 07:46 PM	#586
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain The Franchise's Avatar Join Date: Dec 2006	Wow. QBR. Give that man his gold jacket.
Posts: 92,296

01-01-2018, 07:48 PM	#588
TigeRRUppeRRcut Banned Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: 19th Hole	David Carr wrote this to **** with the Chiefs fan base. Y'all fell for the clickbait. He was trying to help his sad/pathetic brother out. Clearly Reid doesn't fall for David Carr's shit.
Posts: 11,680