Trading down from 31/32 and why you should throw away the theory

[kccrow]

I see many people mention trading down... Well here's your history lesson on why it's not likely and also not favorable.

Teams have only traded out of picks #31 or #32 a total of 5 times in the past 20 years.

Here they are:

2019 - 1-31 + 6-203 for 2-45 and 3-79. Falcons took Kaleb McGary, Rams ended up with Joejuan Williams and David Long.
2018 - 1-32 + 4-132 for 2-52 + 4-125 + 2019 2nd. Ravens took Lamar Jackson and Jaleel Scott, Eagles took Kemoko Turay, Avonte Maddox and then Miles Sanders in 2019
2017 - 1-31 for 2-34 + 4-111. 49ers took Reuben Foster. Seahawks took Cam Robinson and Tedric Thompson
2014 - 1-32 for 2-40 + 4-108. Vikings took Teddy Bridgewater. Seahawks took Kyle Van Noy and Cassius Marsh.
2012 - 1-31 + 4-126 for 2-36 + 4-101. Bucs took Doug Martin and Jared Crick. Broncos took Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden.

As you can also see here, the team that traded out took significantly less talented players more often than not. I'd argue that the only team that may have gotten the upper hand was the Broncos in 2012. You can make a fair argument on Seattle over Minnesota in 2014 but Bridgewater wasn't bad, he was just broken, and while Van Noy has been steady, neither he nor Marsh has been great.

Also, you can see the pattern here that the best you're really going to get is a 4th round pick. No glorious hopes of returns that net you a 3rd rounder. While it's a high 4th, it's a 4th. We should not see mocks that entertain an extra 3rd rounder if you do project a trade-down because reality says it isn't happening.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Jerm

I don’t see Veach trading down in the 1st….he’s only shown a penchant for wanting to move up, a strategy I’m 100% with.

The team trading down almost always loses the trade. Move up or make the pick is the best strategy.

Someone mentioned Pittsburgh... they almost never trade down. Neither does Atlanta. Teams like Seattle and LA Rams are more likely to do it.

[RedinTexas]

It might be nice to both move down AND up. Washington has #36 and #40 in the second round. Getting those picks for our picks at #32 and #64 + whatever else is required to get the deal done might be a pretty good move.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Agreed. Great thread.

[Gravedigger]

I don't care if the Bills are disemboweled with the poor decision of salary cap hell, I don't care if they're a husk of their former glory no matter how short-lived it was, you must trade up to at least pick #27 and take a player that's on the Bills wish list. It's tradition, a tradition I won't let die without a fight.

[Stryker]

Yes, stay put but preferably, MOVE UP! THIS is the time to do so! Do not move back, move UP! BTJ come on down! LOL!