Mathieu v. Ward: Who Ya Got?

[Direckshun]

I think we all doubt the Chiefs can re-sign both of these players.

So if you had to re-sign either of these players this coming offseason and let the other walk, which one and why?

[O.city]

I would imagine a boundary corner is tougher to find and replace than what Mathieu does.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I would imagine a boundary corner is tougher to find and replace than what Mathieu does.

Than what Mathieu did? Perhaps not. Boundary corners can use the sideline to cover for some of their lack of baseline athleticism. More and more teams are using really dynamic options in the slot to avoid press coverages and get them into space.

Many genuine 'wide' receivers these days are your bigger, more physical guys. And CBs that can body someone up a bit are a little easier to find than dudes that can hang with waterbugs in the slot without a press.

Mathieu could do that. If he were 25 I may be inclined to value his skill-set more highly than Wards. I just don't think he'll be able to maintain that into his 30s. He's already declining physically and getting by on guile - he's not far from that cliff where his baseline athleticism just isn't good enough anymore. Especially for an undersized player.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Sneed is absolutely more important than Ward due to his positional versatility.

But without Ward, you're probably resigned to Sneed playing boundary every snap. That's going to largely neutralize his blitzing ability and his first-step quickness is so crucial in the slot. Moreover, there just aren't many guys with his kind of athleticism that also have his size and physicality. He's essentially Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Keeping Ward allows you to continue utilizing him in that way.

Otherwise your options are Sneed out wide or trying to get something out of Baker in the boundary role and he's just not looked up for that.

And ultimately I think a Mathieu deal is a 2 year deal with a dead cap charge in year 3; it's far more of a band-aid. And you're paying market price for him+ due to his name value. So there's likely nothing but downside in that deal. Meanwhile Ward may still be a tick undervalued and a 4 year deal likely has him around all 4 years. There's more upside baked into a Ward deal, IMO.

Plus Ward will be cheaper and you can get an adequate safety for the difference in Mathieu and Ward's costs. This frees up draft capital as well, since we would need to prioritize either position in the draft if unfilled.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Plus Ward will be cheaper and you can get an adequate safety for the difference in Mathieu and Ward's costs. This frees up draft capital as well, since we would need to prioritize either position in the draft if unfilled.

Hard to know who will be cheaper as the market is just weird sometimes.

I never expected Kyle Fuller to get the monster deal he got with Chicago but his market just exploded. Ward is a very similar sort of player, IMO. His market may just come together better than we expect (for the reasons I outlined).

Meanwhile Mathieu is a 30 yr old safety who's outspoken on social media. It wouldn't take more than a couple of teams deciding that his age and the potential headache aren't worth the trouble for a bidding war to fail to materialize and his market stagnates.

I'm presuming the costs to be largely equal and I'd STILL take Ward.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And ultimately I think a Mathieu deal is a 2 year deal with a dead cap charge in year 3; it's far more of a band-aid. And you're paying market price for him+ due to his name value.

I think it's pretty clear that you're paying him for more than name value.

Mike DeVito mentioned this on his podcast: coaches can only take you some of the way, and can only prepare you so much, due to NFL rules. It's up to NFL leaders (and DeVito cited Derrick Johnson) who can hold their teammates accountable and do the extra digging into film, technique, and keeping everyone accountable that separate the leaders like DJ and Mathieu from players who are simply excellent on the field.

Ostensibly, paying Mathieu allows you to continue making bargain purchases at the other secondary positions of value. He is a "rising tide" player, who lifts the production everywhere else in the secondary.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by CatfishBob2

It's time to give the social media stuff a rest. But I think it will be cheaper to keep Ward and I think there is some upside to doing so. I wish there was a way we could trade him as opposed to just letting him walk though

Well, I'd be forced to agree that Ward would be cheaper. At best, Ward is a top-20 CB (probably somewhere between 15th-20th). Mathieu is a bona fide top-5 S, one of the best to do it since Polamalu, his social media activities notwithstanding.

Btw, just FYI, Honey Badger isn't going anywhere. Spags' recipe for this defense seems pretty clear at this point: spend money on the spine of the defense (DT/DE/MLB/S) and find cheap labor to fill in the rest, including CB. The SB run showed quite clearly Spags doesn't necessarily need elite CBs, just physical, intelligent, competent ones. Safety is where Spags wants to have elite players.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Well, I'd be forced to agree that Ward would be cheaper. At best, Ward is a top-20 CB (probably somewhere between 15th-20th). Mathieu is a bona fide top-5 S, one of the best to do it since Polamalu, his social media activities notwithstanding.

Btw, just FYI, Honey Badger isn't going anywhere. Spags' recipe for this defense seems pretty clear at this point: spend money on the spine of the defense (DT/DE/MLB/S) and find cheap labor to fill in the rest, including CB. The SB run showed quite clearly Spags doesn't necessarily need elite CBs, just physical, intelligent, competent ones. Safety is where Spags wants to have elite players.

You are mistaken if you think Spags decides how much each player gets paid.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You are mistaken if you think Spags decides how much each player gets paid.

? Never said that. Never even thought that.

But he does have a say in who is on his defense. he picked Mathieu in the first place. And his exact words were "that guy can do everything."

Add in the fact that Spags is a Swiss Army knife guy, and a secondary guy, and there's really no one on the team right now that could replace HB, it seems pretty straightforward, no?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

? Never said that. Never even thought that.

But he does have a say in who is on his defense. he picked Mathieu in the first place. And his exact words were "that guy can do everything."

Add in the fact that Spags is a Swiss Army knife guy, and a secondary guy, and there's really no one on the team right now that could replace HB, it seems pretty straightforward, no?

Sneed cant replace a 2022 version of Mathieu?

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Sneed cant replace a 2022 version of Mathieu?

Sneed is a better athlete, no question. But football IQ? There's no comparison. I really like Sneed, but he still needs a lot of seasoning before I'd say he was even close to the same level as Tyrann.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Sneed is a better athlete, no question. But football IQ? There's no comparison. I really like Sneed, but he still needs a lot of seasoning before I'd say he was even close to the same level as Tyrann.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You are mistaken if you think Spags decides how much each player gets paid.

[Chris Meck]

let me take a different angle here.

Where have the Chiefs prioritized defensively since Veach took over?

Clark, Mathieu, Hitchens, Jones are your big money contracts. Half of your front four, MLB, Safety/slot.

In the draft: Thornhill, Gay, Bolton, Speaks (!), a FS, two LB'ers, and a tweener defensive lineman, all second rounders when we've only had two first rounders at all in that time, spent on Mahomes and Clyde. (That Speaks washed out doesn't matter, we're talking initial investments here.) 3rd rounders? Nnadi, DOD.

Now let's look at the CB room-
Ward, UDFA trade for Ehringer.
Fenton, 6th rounder.
Sneed, 4th rounder.
Hughes, trade for a 6th.
Baker, FA
Bootles 6th right?

So what does this tell us about the upcoming offseason?

KC prioritizes front to back and then inside out. Meaning, front 4 first, and then your inside players at LB and S with CB investment being lowest of the position groups.

Well, IF we continue the prior blueprint, we'll spend FA money on the front 4, as well as higher draft capital. Since we've spent two #2's at LB probably skip that this year, but the S position will need either a Mathieu re-signing or replacement, and a Sorensen replacement.

And Ward probably walks.

Maybe they change their tactics but that would fit what they've done so far.

[Chris Meck]

Also, somebody here had posted that against the Raiders, Mathieu had a super high completion rate covering Waller and that was an indication of a decline in his play. For the record, Waller had 4 catches for 24 yards with a long of 11 despite having an 8" height and like 70 pounds weight advantage over the much smaller Mathieu.

So, whatever else we feel about Mathieu, that we're tired of his social media nonsense, that his prima-donna business about his contract is tiresome, that he's getting older, that his prior injury history is cause for caution, etc-all of that is relevant, BUT this idea that he's declined is not, in my opinion, based in fact.

I'll repeat what I've already said here just so it's CLEAR: My preference is to move on from both Ward and Mathieu, spending more of the cap dollars on the front four and drafting replacements DE, at safety and CB as well as bargain shopping.

But I'll be surprised if the Chiefs don't re-sign Mathieu to some sort of a deal that they could get out of after year 2. Like a 4 year deal that's really a 2 year deal kind of thing.

But we'll see.

[Direckshun]

The bizarre thing about how good L'Jarius Sneed is, is you could theoretically ask him to replace either player.

Sneed is a swiss army knife nickel corner who can play some safety, whereas Mathieu is a swiss army knife safety who can play some nickel corner. Aside from the leadership gap, you could replace one with the other.

Then again, maybe Spags likes having two of these swiss army knives in the secondary, and sees Ward as the easier replacement to make.