David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Spott

100% Donkey, no doubt about it.

I'd keep my eyes on that Kelly kid if I were you. Don't think for a minute that Andy isn't

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

I'd keep my eyes on that Kelly kid if I were you. Don't think for a minute that Andy isn't

Can someone take out the Donkey trash already?...

You can't ruin this party, bud. The fun has just begun.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Your stance is pure nostalgia and loyalty.

I have no idea what Reid being a details guy has to do with any of this.

They gave up not 1 but 2 1st round picks for a QB with a skill set very different than Smiths and he looks ready and is much cheaper not to mention Smith can bring a few picks.

How does this team improve next year with Smith at QB? Answer that for me.

Use logic not your heart.

We gave up two LATE 1st rounders. Big difference. It's not like the Browns who actually have two picks in the top 4 next draft.


Answer me this: how does the team improve playing an inexperienced QB unfamiliar with the offense who just went out and couldn't complete a TD, threw an awful pick, and chucked up a bunch of prayers that most starting defenses in the NFL would pick off a majority of the time?

It was essentially a preseason level game and here we are acting like the game mattered more than it did.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Dude, really.... just stop.

Such a hater.

Hater? Look at yourself, you're the Smith hater. I'm not sold on a QB that teams have basically no film to prepare on and just went out there and made a bunch of reckless throws against an uninspired team that already checked out for the season. Realistic take.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Hater? Look at yourself, you're the Smith hater. I'm not sold on a QB that teams have basically no film to prepare on and just went out there and made a bunch of reckless throws against an uninspired team that already checked out for the season. Realistic take.

I'm not a Smith hater though. I don't root for him to fail. I root for him to succeed as long as he is a Chiefs QB. You are doing the opposite. You want to come up with every reason in the world to deny that Mahomes has greatness in him.

What's so wrong about accepting that the kid is really good and Alex can still have his last playoff run?

Reckless throws? The kid made one 'reckless' throw to Harris on the last drive. Those other ones that you are thinking of were just big boy passes. Franchise QB throws.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Can someone take out the Honkey trash already?...

You can't ruin this party, bud. The fun has just begun.

I picked the Chiefs to come second in the division, that they might make the playoff's depending on how the season unfolds.

I was wrong AND I was right

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Hater? Look at yourself, you're the Smith hater. I'm not sold on a QB that teams have basically no film to prepare on and just went out there and made a bunch of reckless throws against an uninspired team that already checked out for the season. Realistic take.

I want to give you another chance, but this shit is definitely not helping

[O.city]

Smith won’t be here next year

Why is this a discussion.?

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I'm not a Smith hater though. I don't root for him to fail. I root for him to succeed as long as he is a Chiefs QB. You are doing the opposite. You want to come up with every reason in the world to deny that Mahomes has greatness in him.

What's so wrong about accepting that the kid is really good and Alex can still have his last playoff run?

Reckless throws? The kid made one 'reckless' throw to Harris on the last drive. Those other ones that you are thinking of were just big boy passes. Franchise QB throws.

Bullshit you have done nothing but slander your starting QB. I'm being realistic about Mahomes, not fondling his nuts after a throwaway game. Tell me where I have posted in this thread that I have wanted him to fail.

Rodgers attempts big boy throws but doesn't try to throw into triple coverage on a non-crucial down. That's called smart football. Mahomes was playing with nothing to lose against a defense playing for nothing. Calm your tits down.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by O.city

Smith won’t be here next year

Why is this a discussion.?

Because you've got people like Tigger who can't accept reality.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by Easy 6

I want to give you another chance, but this shit is definitely not helping

If you're going into this with more than cautious optimism than you are setting yourself up for major failure. We saw what RG3, Luck, Newton did to start off their careers and they have fallen apart since. The kid hasn't even finished a meaningful game and we are already crowning him.

Calm. The. ****. Down. People.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

We gave up two LATE 1st rounders. Big difference. It's not like the Browns who actually have two picks in the top 4 next draft.


Answer me this: how does the team improve playing an inexperienced QB unfamiliar with the offense who just went out and couldn't complete a TD, threw an awful pick, and chucked up a bunch of prayers that most starting defenses in the NFL would pick off a majority of the time?

It was essentially a preseason level game and here we are acting like the game mattered more than it did.

TIGGERED

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Bullshit you have done nothing but slander your starting QB. I'm being realistic about Mahomes, not fondling his nuts after a throwaway game. Tell me where I have posted in this thread that I have wanted him to fail.

Rodgers attempts big boy throws but doesn't try to throw into triple coverage on a non-crucial down. That's called smart football. Mahomes was playing with nothing to lose against a defense playing for nothing. Calm your tits down.

Denver played their starters, the Chiefs did not. You not figured that out yet?

You are trying to drag Mahomes' performance through the dirt with all of your BS excuses. Let me ask you one simple rhetorical question though....

Would Smith have won that game with the backup crew that Mahomes played with against Denver's starters?

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Because you've got people like Tigger who can't accept reality.

Oh right you mean the reality where you and the idiots like DJLN said Smith wouldn't continue to improve going into year five? Said he was afraid to throw downfield.

Dude just finished with the #1 QB rating.


GREAT take their, genius. What's your response?

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Denver played their starters, the Chiefs did not. You not figured that out yet?

You are trying to drag Mahomes' performance through the dirt with all of your BS excuses. Let me ask you one simple rhetorical question though....

Would Smith have won that game with the backup crew that Mahomes played with against Denver's starters?

What were their snap counts and what were they playing for??

Quit jerking off the kid for a throwaway game, it's disgusting.