***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

A study in Israel following 843,000 participants over 50 years old demonstrated a 90-percent reduction in mortality for booster recipients. It was published in NEJM today.

Just got done reading this and came to post it. Great news!

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by Donger

I read this over lunch. It's quite preliminary and has a small sample size, so please keep that in mind:

Studies suggest sharp drop in vaccine protection vs. omicron — yet cause for optimism

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...se-for-optimis

With the omicron variant continuing to spread in a number of countries, including the U.S., scientists have been anxiously awaiting data to answer this question: How well will the vaccines work against this new variant?

On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, scientists in South Africa and Germany released preliminary results from two small studies that begin to provide answers.

The studies haven't been peer-reviewed. But together, their data strongly suggest the vaccines will be much less effective at stopping infections from the omicron variant but will still likely offer protection against severe disease. The study in Germany also indicates that a third shot, or a booster, will partially recover the effectiveness of the vaccines, at least for a few months.

In the South African study, researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute took blood from about a dozen people who had been vaccinated with two shots of the Pfizer vaccine and looked to see how well their antibodies kill the virus. In the experiment, everyone's antibodies were able to neutralize an earlier version of the virus quite well.

But against omicron, that ability dropped dramatically. On average, the antibodies were 40 times less potent against omicron than against the variant circulating in the summer of 2020.

And that's a lot. "It's astonishing ... in terms of the reduction," says Pei-Yong Shi, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston who has been doing similar experiments to determine the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the coronavirus.

"We seem to see a drastic reduction in neutralizing activity, far more than with previous variants," virologist Florian Krammer, who's at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, wrote on Twitter. "Little activity was left in vaccinated individuals."

These findings confirm what scientists have been predicting since omicron was first detected several weeks ago. The virus contains many mutations already known to weaken the power of the antibodies made by the immune system.

Based on the results of this preliminary study, scientists say it's likely we'll see a lot more breakthrough infections with the omicron variant. And South Africa is reporting a lot of reinfections.

But the news isn't all dire. The vaccine isn't just about protecting against infections. It's also about protecting against severe disease and death. And there's reason to believe the vaccines will still do that, even with the omicron variant. Most of the people in the South African experiment did retain some ability to kill the virus. And scientists say even just a little bit of antibody activity can be enough to prevent someone from ending up in the hospital.

Also the immune system has other tools besides antibodies that can ward off severe disease. In particular, the T cells can clear out the virus after an infection. And scientists think those may hold up better against omicron than antibodies will.

On top of all that, the study from Germany shows that a third booster shot, with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, increases the neutralizing ability of the antibodies to levels seen with the delta variant, at least for several weeks after the booster.

In that study, researchers at the Goethe University in Frankfurt looked at antibody potency against omicron and delta a half-month and three months after a third booster. In the short term, the antibody potency jumped up to the levels seen with delta in about half of the people. But after three months, most people's antibodies had declined to the level seen without the booster.

The vaccine manufacturer Pfizer also released a press statement Wednesday supporting these new findings.

"Preliminary neutralisation studies indicate that 2 doses of vaccines may not be sufficient to prevent *infection* w/ omicron (not severe disease), but regular boosters will help restore this decline to an extent," Dr. Muge Cevik, who's an infectious disease researcher at the University of St. Andrews, wrote on Twitter.

Hmmm Really????? I hate all this constant contradicting information.

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...on-2021-12-08/

Dec 8 (Reuters) - BioNTech and Pfizer (PFE.N) said on Wednesday a three-shot course of their COVID-19 vaccine was able to neutralize the new Omicron variant in a laboratory test, an early signal that booster shots could be key to protection against infection from the newly identified variant.

[TLO]

Conversation with a coworker. Names have been changed to respect privacy

(2 months ago)

BLO: So, Betty, have you given any more thought to getting vaccinated? I know we talked before, and you were pretty against it. Just wanted to check in and see if your thoughts had changed at all?

Betty: Hell no! They aren't injecting me with that experimental junk. I'll die before I take the vaccine.

BLO: Ok. No problem, just wanted to check in.

(Fast-forward to 2 weeks ago)

*phone rings*

Betty: Hey BLO, it's Betty. I feel like death. I just tested positive for covid.

BLO: I'm so sorry to hear that. What kind of symptoms are you experiencing?

Betty: I can't taste or smell. I'm coughing and can't catch my breath.

BLO: Did your doctor give you any type of treatment?

Betty: Well they're sending me out for this monoclonal antibody treatment. I don't know what that is, but I hope it works.

BLO: ............... I hope you feel better soon, Betty. Keep me updated.

Fin

[BigBeauford]

Originally Posted by TLO

Conversation with a coworker. Names have been changed to respect privacy

(2 months ago)

BLO: So, Betty, have you given any more thought to getting vaccinated? I know we talked before, and you were pretty against it. Just wanted to check in and see if your thoughts had changed at all?

Betty: Hell no! They aren't injecting me with that experimental junk. I'll die before I take the vaccine.

BLO: Ok. No problem, just wanted to check in.

(Fast-forward to 2 weeks ago)

*phone rings*

Betty: Hey BLO, it's Betty. I feel like death. I just tested positive for covid.

BLO: I'm so sorry to hear that. What kind of symptoms are you experiencing?

Betty: I can't taste or smell. I'm coughing and can't catch my breath.

BLO: Did your doctor give you any type of treatment?

Betty: Well they're sending me out for this monoclonal antibody treatment. I don't know what that is, but I hope it works.

BLO: ............... I hope you feel better soon, Betty. Keep me updated.

Fin

Betty Croaker.

[suzzer99]

Just published @NEJM
A striking 90% reduction in death for booster shots (vs not receiving the 3rd shot) among over 840,000 people, age 50 or olderhttps://t.co/W22vriA1Se pic.twitter.com/c2342ECuwV

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 8, 2021

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Just published @NEJM
A striking 90% reduction in death for booster shots (vs not receiving the 3rd shot) among over 840,000 people, age 50 or olderhttps://t.co/W22vriA1Se pic.twitter.com/c2342ECuwV

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 8, 2021

Now we see how long it holds up for.

Great data though.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

Betty Croaker.

She's fine, thankfully. I'm just glad she wasn't scared off by the experimental antibody treatment.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Hmmm Really????? I hate all this constant contradicting information.

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...on-2021-12-08/

Dec 8 (Reuters) - BioNTech and Pfizer (PFE.N) said on Wednesday a three-shot course of their COVID-19 vaccine was able to neutralize the new Omicron variant in a laboratory test, an early signal that booster shots could be key to protection against infection from the newly identified variant.

I don't think there's any contradiction between the Pfizer statement and the NPR article. The article is saying that the heterologous (two dose = prime and boost) efficacy against Omicron is much lower than against Delta, and that a second boost (third shot) is "needed" to pump up the efficacy against Omicron. The Pfizer statement seems to say the same:

"The first line of defence, with two doses of vaccination, might be compromised and three doses of vaccination are required to restore protection," BioNTech Chief Medical Officer Ozlem Tuereci said at a press conference.

and from the article:

In the South African study, researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute took blood from about a dozen people who had been vaccinated with two shots of the Pfizer vaccine and looked to see how well their antibodies kill the virus. In the experiment, everyone's antibodies were able to neutralize an earlier version of the virus quite well.

But against omicron, that ability dropped dramatically. On average, the antibodies were 40 times less potent against omicron than against the variant circulating in the summer of 2020.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Update: He's not getting better, and it's likely he goes on a vent soon. So likely that the doc bent some rules and allowed myself and my sisters to visit this morning. Mom still has two days of quarantine before she can go.

I know this might be skirting - or flat blowing over the line - so if I'm in the wrong here, just delete the rest of this mods, but...

This all could have been avoided, but like so many others, he thought information from Facebook/The Internet carries more weight than from ****ing professionals.

I hope those of you who are vaxxed and reading this realize how important getting those shots were to you and your families.

And I hope those of you who aren't vaxxed (and can be safely) will reconsider. My stepdad realizes now that he made a huge mistake, and now it's too late.

Don't do this to your families. Get the goddamn shots. Please.

I'm sorry you are having to go through this. It's an odd mix of emotions, at least for me, when a family member goes through something like this due largely to poor decisions. I recently went through this with my wife's family, her brother (BIL) and his wife (SIL).

SIL's dad convinced his entire family (Dad, Mom, his mother (Grandma), BIL and SIL and their two kids, and SIL's sister and her daughter) to not get vaxxed because Facebook reasons.

At the end of August, SIL's teen-aged daughter goes to Florida during the height of Florida's Covid cases. A week after Daughter gets back, the entire unvaxxed family has dinner with my in-laws, who are vaxxed but in their 80s (I'm still pissed about that because my mother-in-law doesn't have a spleen so is immunocompromised). The next day, entire family, except my in-laws, are sick with Covid.

Over the next few weeks, various family members are in and out of the hospital. Dad refuses to go until his O2 drops so low that he has no choice. He dies two days later. Grandma is in for a couple of weeks, as is Mom, but both survive. Sister (who is only about 40) is on a vent for a couple of weeks and then gets sent to Portland to be on an ECMO. She's on that for about three weeks and ends up dying.

So now, everyone is devastated. Grandma is home but loopy as hell (maybe low O2 brought on some dementia?). Mom has to move in with Grandma for financial reasons and to watch Grandma. SIL and BIL's service based business is in trouble because they couldn't work for several weeks. BIL and SIL were already raising Sister's daughter because of Sister's issues, but there was nothing formal and now there may be some custody problems. Plus, they are saddled with some pretty big medical bills and SIL is constantly on Facebook begging for money through a GoFundMe. To top it all off, SIL is still anti-vax and appears to be heading down the Q rabbit hole.

You feel bad for them but, at the same time, it's like "Gee. If only there had been some way to possibly prevent all of this".

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Frosty

I'm sorry you are having to go through this. It's an odd mix of emotions, at least for me, when a family member goes through something like this due largely to poor decisions. I recently went through this with my wife's family, her brother (BIL) and his wife (SIL).

SIL's dad convinced his entire family (Dad, Mom, his mother (Grandma), BIL and SIL and their two kids, and SIL's sister and her daughter) to not get vaxxed because Facebook reasons.

At the end of August, SIL's teen-aged daughter goes to Florida during the height of Florida's Covid cases. A week after Daughter gets back, the entire unvaxxed family has dinner with my in-laws, who are vaxxed but in their 80s (I'm still pissed about that because my mother-in-law doesn't have a spleen so is immunocompromised). The next day, entire family, except my in-laws, are sick with Covid.

Over the next few weeks, various family members are in and out of the hospital. Dad refuses to go until his O2 drops so low that he has no choice. He dies two days later. Grandma is in for a couple of weeks, as is Mom, but both survive. Sister (who is only about 40) is on a vent for a couple of weeks and then gets sent to Portland to be on an ECMO. She's on that for about three weeks and ends up dying.

So now, everyone is devastated. Grandma is home but loopy as hell (maybe low O2 brought on some dementia?). Mom has to move in with Grandma for financial reasons and to watch Grandma. SIL and BIL's service based business is in trouble because they couldn't work for several weeks. BIL and SIL were already raising Sister's daughter because of Sister's issues, but there was nothing formal and now there may be some custody problems. Plus, they are saddled with some pretty big medical bills and SIL is constantly on Facebook begging for money through a GoFundMe. To top it all off, SIL is still anti-vax and appears to be heading down the Q rabbit hole.

You feel bad for them but, at the same time, it's like "Gee. If only there had been some way to possibly prevent all of this".

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Frosty

I'm sorry you are having to go through this. It's an odd mix of emotions, at least for me, when a family member goes through something like this due largely to poor decisions. I recently went through this with my wife's family, her brother (BIL) and his wife (SIL).

SIL's dad convinced his entire family (Dad, Mom, his mother (Grandma), BIL and SIL and their two kids, and SIL's sister and her daughter) to not get vaxxed because Facebook reasons.

At the end of August, SIL's teen-aged daughter goes to Florida during the height of Florida's Covid cases. A week after Daughter gets back, the entire unvaxxed family has dinner with my in-laws, who are vaxxed but in their 80s (I'm still pissed about that because my mother-in-law doesn't have a spleen so is immunocompromised). The next day, entire family, except my in-laws, are sick with Covid.

Over the next few weeks, various family members are in and out of the hospital. Dad refuses to go until his O2 drops so low that he has no choice. He dies two days later. Grandma is in for a couple of weeks, as is Mom, but both survive. Sister (who is only about 40) is on a vent for a couple of weeks and then gets sent to Portland to be on an ECMO. She's on that for about three weeks and ends up dying.

So now, everyone is devastated. Grandma is home but loopy as hell (maybe low O2 brought on some dementia?). Mom has to move in with Grandma for financial reasons and to watch Grandma. SIL and BIL's service based business is in trouble because they couldn't work for several weeks. BIL and SIL were already raising Sister's daughter because of Sister's issues, but there was nothing formal and now there may be some custody problems. Plus, they are saddled with some pretty big medical bills and SIL is constantly on Facebook begging for money through a GoFundMe. To top it all off, SIL is still anti-vax and appears to be heading down the Q rabbit hole.

You feel bad for them but, at the same time, it's like "Gee. If only there had been some way to possibly prevent all of this".

Damn, I'm so sorry man. I completely get it - same thing on my end, just lucky that he's the only one of the family that made a poor choice.

I completely get the range of emotions. I love him and am devastated that he's in this situation, while also furious with him for potentially making my mother a widow at 68 years old, all because he thinks ****ing mouthbreathers on the internet are smarter than doctors.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I'm thinking it's a delta thing (and now omicron), but for the first year of this whole thing I didn't know anybody or even hear of anybody who got seriously ill. I saw the fatality numbers rising, but it was people outside my social sphere. Over the past six months, I've been hearing more and more about it hitting on a second-order basis, where friends of mine know people personally who were seriously ill. I think maybe alpha was really hitting the older vulnerable population hard and I don't know many people like that, whereas delta has been having an impact on a more broad age range.

It definitely seems that way. I remember people maybe a year or so ago who were still on the "hoax" bandwagon because they didn't know anyone who had been seriously ill from it, and now it seems like it's happening all around us.

This stuff pretty much always has a variety of explanations, but I'm sure you're on the right track:

1. The first wave primarily hit older folks who were less likely to be in frequent contact with those beyond their own families.
2. We were still being pretty cautious (masks, restaurants, sporting events, family gatherings, etc.) so it wasn't spreading that much among younger populations.
3. Delta is more contagious.

I still think we're basically at the point where those who have decided against the vaccine have made their choice, but it sucks to see immunocompromised folks like Nzoner's wife taking the brunt of it.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Damn, I'm so sorry man. I completely get it - same thing on my end, just lucky that he's the only one of the family that made a poor choice.

I completely get the range of emotions. I love him and am devastated that he's in this situation, while also furious with him for potentially making my mother a widow at 68 years old, all because he thinks ****ing mouthbreathers on the internet are smarter than doctors.

People just don't seem to understand the chaos this can cause. From unexpected death, to huge hospital bills, to long term recovery in some cases when they do survive. Sure, a lot of people fly through it with no issues but you just have no way of knowing how it will hit you or someone you infect.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Frosty

I'm sorry you are having to go through this. It's an odd mix of emotions, at least for me, when a family member goes through something like this due largely to poor decisions. I recently went through this with my wife's family, her brother (BIL) and his wife (SIL).

SIL's dad convinced his entire family (Dad, Mom, his mother (Grandma), BIL and SIL and their two kids, and SIL's sister and her daughter) to not get vaxxed because Facebook reasons.

At the end of August, SIL's teen-aged daughter goes to Florida during the height of Florida's Covid cases. A week after Daughter gets back, the entire unvaxxed family has dinner with my in-laws, who are vaxxed but in their 80s (I'm still pissed about that because my mother-in-law doesn't have a spleen so is immunocompromised). The next day, entire family, except my in-laws, are sick with Covid.

Over the next few weeks, various family members are in and out of the hospital. Dad refuses to go until his O2 drops so low that he has no choice. He dies two days later. Grandma is in for a couple of weeks, as is Mom, but both survive. Sister (who is only about 40) is on a vent for a couple of weeks and then gets sent to Portland to be on an ECMO. She's on that for about three weeks and ends up dying.

So now, everyone is devastated. Grandma is home but loopy as hell (maybe low O2 brought on some dementia?). Mom has to move in with Grandma for financial reasons and to watch Grandma. SIL and BIL's service based business is in trouble because they couldn't work for several weeks. BIL and SIL were already raising Sister's daughter because of Sister's issues, but there was nothing formal and now there may be some custody problems. Plus, they are saddled with some pretty big medical bills and SIL is constantly on Facebook begging for money through a GoFundMe. To top it all off, SIL is still anti-vax and appears to be heading down the Q rabbit hole.

You feel bad for them but, at the same time, it's like "Gee. If only there had been some way to possibly prevent all of this".

I ****ing hate people. Sorry for your wife. JFC

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I ****ing hate people. Sorry for your wife. JFC

Thanks. I was particularly worried about her brother as he was in one of the danger zones - early 50s, overweight, under a lot of stress, poor diet, etc. Fortunately, he got through it, though he still isn't back to 100%.