David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by stevieray

You don't know that.

Hunts 35 yard TD?

Talib quit on that play.

Alex threw for 202 yards against the same team WITH hill and kelce and a full game from hunt.

You are silly

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

No idea why you are doing this to yourself.

I have caught a metric ton of shit for supporting Smith over the years.

After sitting through the Pitt playoff game last year I had had enough Alex Smith heart break.

Then I got to see Mahomes drafted and play. Holy shit.

You dont have to hate Smith to realize Mahomes is next level. Wasting your time hoping Smith comes back is an exercise in futility I dont understand why a person would put themselves through that.

We have a once in a life time talented QB in the wings and you are busy arguing Smith should be back. What a waste of a persons time.

And this is coming from a guy going to the game Saturday expecting to see the first playoff win at Arrowhead in 30 years.

You can be excited about Mahomes and want him to start while rooting for Smith to play well in the playoffs. But damn man be realistic.

Perfect description of where I'm at with this and where most should be.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Alex threw for 202 yards against the same team WITH hill and kelce and a full game from hunt.

You are silly

That's great... no two games are EVER alike.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by stevieray

You don't know that.

Hunts 35 yard TD?

Talib quit on that play.

Oh and if you had read the post you quoted you would have seen I said "im not sure" which definitely means I don't know that for sure. Not sure exactly what you are getting at here

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

No idea why you are doing this to yourself.


wasting your rime hoping Smith comes back

i'm not doing anything, other than waiting to see how this all plays out.

...that's just your take, doesn't make it reality.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by stevieray

That's great... no two games are EVER alike.

Well that's the only comparison there is to make.

But you are right, pat played with much inferior talent on his side. They weren't alike at all

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by stevieray

That's great... no two games are EVER alike.

Very true.

Mahomes IS the KC future.
Mahomes did a fine job yesterday...

but no one can tell me that the Bronco players were giving it their all.

.. and even if they did or did not? the kid had some great moments that should make all KC fans excited for what's to come.

nothing left to say about it.. see ya next year, Pat.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by stevieray

i'm not doing anything, other than waiting to see how this all plays out.

...that's just your take, doesn't make it reality.

Alrighty then. Deal!

Happy 2018 Steve, you know I don't wish anything negative on you.

[The Franchise]

All Mahomes does is win. 1-0.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Well that's the only comparison there is to make.

But you are right, pat played with much inferior talent on his side. They weren't alike at all

Well other than beating them five times in a row (including yesterday)

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Alrighty then. Deal!

Happy 2018 Steve, you know I don't wish anything negative on you.

Amen, brother.

I'm just as stoked as anyone. he played great for his first outing.

We just need to be patient.

[bigjosh]

Originally Posted by stevieray

YOU GUYS are the ones comparing, you just don't like it when it gets flipped back on you.

You aren't flipping back anything. You are deflecting with bullshit.

You have made zero quality arguments to display that you are right with your assessment.

[JohnnyV13]

Mahomes looked better in his first start than DeShaun Watson did in his.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

You aren't flipping back anything. You are deflecting with bullshit.

You have made zero quality arguments to display that you are right with your assessment.

uhuh, I've made plenty of points.

you know, the ones you aren't debating.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

I think the point being is that the Broncos are horrible. I know it and you know it and it's almost as if you think it's going to shatter Mahomes confidence if we all tell him that.

Paxton better than Brady

The Donkeys are horrible, just like their fans.