***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Ok, yeah mass gatherings are still not a great idea. Surely we all agree on that?

With a caveat that I have trouble caring about anything outside no matter the size.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

With a caveat that I have trouble caring about anything outside no matter the size.

Yeah any outside event is ok. Just don’t stand right on top of people for hours and outside is perfectly fine

[O.city]

But I do think with the downward slope going as it is, you just try to hold tight for another couple weeks atleast. Maybe a month. The lower you can get cases the better with the potential antigenic drift implications.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

But I do think with the downward slope going as it is, you just try to hold tight for another couple weeks atleast. Maybe a month. The lower you can get cases the better with the potential antigenic drift implications.

Current trend shows we are about 25 days away form being at April 2020 levels in new cases with deaths following the trend but a few weeks behind.

It appears that by late spring we shouldn't have any restrictions but I'm guessing that wont happen because people hate giving up power.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

But I do think with the downward slope going as it is, you just try to hold tight for another couple weeks atleast. Maybe a month. The lower you can get cases the better with the potential antigenic drift implications.

There is no evidence that the NPI's are having any major effect at this point.

The strict lockdown in the UK🇬🇧 was so effective that it stopped the spread of Covid in Sweden🇸🇪 as well 💪 pic.twitter.com/M12KVBibw5

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) February 17, 2021

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by O.city

But I do think with the downward slope going as it is, you just try to hold tight for another couple weeks atleast. Maybe a month. The lower you can get cases the better with the potential antigenic drift implications.

I am more than ready to get back to normal and this thing has not had much affect on me.but at this point we need to hold fast as to not lose the ground we’ve gained .

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by R Clark

I am more than ready to get back to normal and this thing has not had much affect on me.but at this point we need to hold fast as to not lose the ground we’ve gained .

What we did had very little effect on what we are seeing now. The nose dive the last few months is because the damn thing is running out of people to infect. Nobody's behavior has changed all of a sudden.

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

What we did had very little effect on what we are seeing now. The nose dive the last few months is because the damn thing is running out of people to infect. Nobody's behavior has changed all of a sudden.

So do you suppose we’ve reach herd immunity?

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by R Clark

So do you suppose we’ve reach herd immunity?

Not yet, but close. I read they used another term for it. Group immunity or something like that. Basically the stage before herd immunity.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

What we did had very little effect on what we are seeing now. The nose dive the last few months is because the damn thing is running out of people to infect. Nobody's behavior has changed all of a sudden.

There has been literally zero change in behavior here locally in the last 3 or 4 months but the numbers have fallen like a rock in the last month or so after a big spike in December.

I have no idea what you would attribute it to aside from the virus running its course.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There has been literally zero change in behavior here locally in the last 3 or 4 months but the numbers have fallen like a rock in the last month or so after a big spike in December.

I have no idea what you would attribute it to aside from the virus running its course.

Agreed. The "we are doing a better job of wearing mask and social distancing" is bullshit to anybody with common sense that leaves the house. Especially given the winter months we are in. People get so invested in a narrative they have trouble using logic. You don't go from 90 hospitalized to 3 in a few months because of a better job of mask wearing and social distancing They just need to be happy it looks like we are at the final stretch of this shit hole.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Agreed. The "we are doing a better job of wearing mask and social distancing" is bullshit to anybody with common sense that leaves the house. Especially given the winter months we are in. People get so invested in a narrative they have trouble using logic. You don't go from 90 hospitalized to 3 in a few months because of a better job of mask wearing and social distancing They just need to be happy it looks like we are at the final stretch of this shit hole.

I've believed for a while now that the timing of the vaccine would coincide with the virus running its course and it would muddy the waters so to speak on how we got truly got out of this mess when we finally do.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I've believed for a while now that the timing of the vaccine would coincide with the virus running its course and it would muddy the waters so to speak on how we got truly got out of this mess when we finally do.

I think I posted the same thing around Oct/Nov. If you did he math back then based on confirmed infections and how many the CDC estimated were missed you could tell around March we would be close to herd immunity depending on the exact number HI is for this.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Current trend shows we are about 25 days away form being at April 2020 levels in new cases with deaths following the trend but a few weeks behind.

It appears that by late spring we shouldn't have any restrictions but I'm guessing that wont happen because people hate giving up power.

The more infections, the more chances for a mutation that would be a bitch to deal with.

With what we're doing now, it's going down quick. Another couple weeks we should be able to roll everything back.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I think I posted the same thing around Oct/Nov. If you did he math back then based on confirmed infections and how many the CDC estimated were missed you could tell around March we would be close to herd immunity depending on the exact number HI is for this.

There isn't a magic "HI number" that things hit and then fall off immediately. Always have overshot.

I'd imagine it's a combination of everything causing this downfall. Immunity, seasonality, vaccinations etc.