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Old 03-23-2015, 12:00 PM  
Reerun_KC Reerun_KC is offline
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**** OFFICIAL 2015-2016 Kansas Basketball Repository Thread ****
Regular Season
Spoiler!

Big 12 Tournament
Spoiler!




http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-brac...ketball-men/d1
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Old 03-07-2016, 07:52 PM   #4981
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
2014-2015 Kentucky very well could have been the best college team we've ever seen and they went down last year. While the winner the previous season (UConn) wasn't even particularly good.
Duke finished 4 in Pomeroy and 2 in Sagarin, 3 points on avg within Kentucky. Duke wasn't quite as good but it was pretty close and they were certainly elite.


Pomeroy rank, winners, since he began 2002:

2
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
9
1
1
8
4


UCONN was the #8 and #9 on that list. Not sure how they won either title, certainly the outlier.
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Old 03-07-2016, 08:41 PM   #4982
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Duke finished 4 in Pomeroy and 2 in Sagarin, 3 points on avg within Kentucky. Duke wasn't quite as good but it was pretty close and they were certainly elite.
Duke was nowhere near as good as Kentucky last year by any metric. Kentucky was the best team in the history of KenPom's formula (surpassing 2008 KU). And yet they didn't win it all because of the nature of the single game elimination tournament.
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Old 03-07-2016, 08:58 PM   #4983
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The final margin was 3 and as someone on the Duke board showed, over the last 3 months it was only 1.5. That isn't that big a margin
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:17 PM   #4984
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The final margin was 3 and as someone on the Duke board showed, over the last 3 months it was only 1.5. That isn't that big a margin
.9757 to .9594 (KenPom), 99.19 to 97.89 (Sagarin overall), 99.44 to 96.34 (Sagarin Predictor), 28.72 to 24.97 (Simple Rating System). Duke was a very good team last year, but they weren't anywhere near the best team in NCAA history (which Kentucky was).
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:45 AM   #4985
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Self said he's not going to tax his players in the Big 12 tournament. Alluded to cutting minutes perhaps. Said if we're gonna lose might as well be early to get rest but still going to try to win it. Obvious BS on that. Hopefully we drop the first game to be honest.
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Old 03-08-2016, 10:13 AM   #4986
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Self said he's not going to tax his players in the Big 12 tournament. Alluded to cutting minutes perhaps. Said if we're gonna lose might as well be early to get rest but still going to try to win it. Obvious BS on that. Hopefully we drop the first game to be honest.
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Old 03-08-2016, 10:46 AM   #4987
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
.9757 to .9594 (KenPom), 99.19 to 97.89 (Sagarin overall), 99.44 to 96.34 (Sagarin Predictor), 28.72 to 24.97 (Simple Rating System). Duke was a very good team last year, but they weren't anywhere near the best team in NCAA history (which Kentucky was).
The estimated score the final 3 months (incl tourney) was Duke losing by a bucket, 75-73. If you say that isn't "anywhere near" Kentucky, have at it.
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Old 03-08-2016, 11:04 AM   #4988
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
The estimated score the final 3 months (incl tourney) was Duke losing by a bucket, 75-73. If you say that isn't "anywhere near" Kentucky, have at it.
Again, the gaps in all those metrics (.0163 in KenPom, 1.30 in Sagarin, 3.1 in Sagrarin Predictor, 3.75 in SRS) were not close. To put it in perspective, if you really want close, look at the difference between this year's Kansas and Michigan State right now (.9464 to .9429 KenPom, 93.05 to 92.73 Sagarin, 92.60 to 92.93 in Sagarin Predictor, 24.02 to 23.62 Simple Rating System).

Last year's Kentucky was undeniably a superior team to Duke and one of the greatest NCAA teams ever. There's only so many ways that can be said and I'm not sure why anybody would waste their time trying to refute that.
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Old 03-08-2016, 11:49 AM   #4989
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
Self said he's not going to tax his players in the Big 12 tournament. Alluded to cutting minutes perhaps. Said if we're gonna lose might as well be early to get rest but still going to try to win it. Obvious BS on that. Hopefully we drop the first game to be honest.
Watch Mason and Graham play 36 minutes anyway on Thursday.
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:53 PM   #4990
Al Czervik Al Czervik is offline
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
Self said he's not going to tax his players in the Big 12 tournament. Alluded to cutting minutes perhaps. Said if we're gonna lose might as well be early to get rest but still going to try to win it. Obvious BS on that. Hopefully we drop the first game to be honest.
Yes...drop the first to the KSU and ensure Oscar has a few more years in Mancrappin....
I would be good with that.....
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:02 PM   #4991
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Again, the gaps in all those metrics (.0163 in KenPom, 1.30 in Sagarin, 3.1 in Sagrarin Predictor, 3.75 in SRS) were not close. To put it in perspective, if you really want close, look at the difference between this year's Kansas and Michigan State right now (.9464 to .9429 KenPom, 93.05 to 92.73 Sagarin, 92.60 to 92.93 in Sagarin Predictor, 24.02 to 23.62 Simple Rating System).
Not sure what 2016 that has to do with last year. But if it does then I'll cite Pomeroy 2005 where both IL + UNC had even bigger gaps behind them (.0301 from IL to Duke that year). Bigger gap = superior team no?

Quote:
Last year's Kentucky was undeniably a superior team to Duke
A 3-pt avg margin is not superior. And much of that was built in Nov-Dec thanks in part to starting their season so early in their Bahamas summer tour.


Quote:
and one of the greatest NCAA teams ever.
They weren't, but even if you're right on that, nobody will remember them.


Quote:
There's only so many ways that can be said and I'm not sure why anybody would waste their time trying to refute that.
sidebar: Duke killed WI on the road (only home loss by WI all year) and then beat them in the title game too.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:06 PM   #4992
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It would be nice to give Wayne Selden a few more games to get going again.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:51 PM   #4993
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Not sure what 2016 that has to do with last year. But if it does then I'll cite Pomeroy 2005 where both IL + UNC had even bigger gaps behind them (.0301 from IL to Duke that year). Bigger gap = superior team no?
It's a frame of reference to aid in showing 2015 UK and Duke weren't that close according to any of the metrics. Not sure how that wasn't obvious.

Quote:
A 3-pt avg margin is not superior.
Except, by definition, it is. If you are 3 points better than another elite team in a neutral court matchup in basketball, that's also very impressive considering the nature of the sport. 2015 Kentucky would win such a matchup in that scenario about 60% of the time, which is quite the feat as 2015 Duke was a top 10 team statistically of the last decade in their own right.

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They weren't, but even if you're right on that, nobody will remember them.
They absolutely were and any metric out there would support that claim. Nobody will remember them, but that's because of the random nature of a single elimination basketball tournament (and their loss in it), not because they actually weren't a great team.
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Old 03-08-2016, 02:27 PM   #4994
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Also, just to illustrate the significance of such an expected point margin in basketball, I'll just mention that in the two Warriors/Cavs matchups this year in the NBA, the Warriors were statistically projected to win their home game by 7 and lose their road game by 1.5. Split the difference and that would make the Warriors a favorite in a neutral court game between the two teams by about 3 points. That doesn't mean the 2016 Warriors aren't far superior to the 2016 Cavs or that they aren't one of the greatest teams in NBA history. They certainly are. It just means that the nature of the sport dictates they'd still lose somewhere around 40% of their games to them on a neutral court. The same would apply with 2015 Kentucky (one of the greatest NCAA teams ever) and 2015 Duke (a great NCAA team but nothing special).
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:56 PM   #4995
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
Self said he's not going to tax his players in the Big 12 tournament. Alluded to cutting minutes perhaps. Said if we're gonna lose might as well be early to get rest but still going to try to win it. Obvious BS on that. Hopefully we drop the first game to be honest.
I'd rather our bench players win some games and rack up experience and confidence while our starters rest.
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