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11-03-2020, 09:23 AM | #46006 | |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Quote:
I would favor a strategy that protects nursing homes without killing people under 70 years old who according to Ioannidis have a .05 IFR globally. |
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Posts: 4,931
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11-03-2020, 09:24 AM | #46007 | |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Quote:
Matt Ridley @mattwridley · Jun 3 Uppsala University took the Imperial College model (or one of them) and adapted it to Sweden, and forecasted 90,000 deaths in Sweden by the end of May if there was no lockdown and 40,000 if there was. In fact, there have only been 4,350 deaths in Sweden. 'Uppsala University took the Imperial College model – or one of them – and adapted it to Sweden and forecasted deaths in Sweden of over 90,000 by the end of May if there was no lockdown and 40,000 if a full lockdown was inforced. In fact, there have only been 4,350 deaths in Sweden until the end of May. This does seem to be a huge discrepancy and suggests there was something wrong with the model...' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...be-replicated- |
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Posts: 4,931
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11-03-2020, 09:27 AM | #46008 | ||
Please squeeze
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
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Quote:
Quote:
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Posts: 66,634
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11-03-2020, 09:29 AM | #46009 |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Posts: 4,931
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11-03-2020, 09:31 AM | #46010 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
The issue is you can't really protect that many people. There's millions of people who are high risk. Nursing homes, elderly who live in multigenrational homes, etc. The whole "protect those at risk" thing sounds great on paper. It's not feasible when there is this much spread. It will get into those areas. |
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Posts: 82,344
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11-03-2020, 09:32 AM | #46011 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Quote:
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Posts: 185,937
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1 0 |
11-03-2020, 09:38 AM | #46012 |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Posts: 4,931
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11-03-2020, 09:41 AM | #46013 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 185,937
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11-03-2020, 09:50 AM | #46014 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Interesting example of contract tracing. |
Posts: 82,344
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11-03-2020, 09:54 AM | #46015 |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 43,911
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11-03-2020, 09:56 AM | #46016 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Posts: 82,344
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11-03-2020, 09:56 AM | #46017 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Quote:
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Posts: 185,937
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11-03-2020, 09:59 AM | #46018 |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Posts: 4,931
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11-03-2020, 10:02 AM | #46019 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 185,937
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11-03-2020, 10:04 AM | #46020 | |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Quote:
We only have limited resources. It doesn't matter how hard you lock down. None of these NPI's can stop the virus. At best a small delay. |
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Posts: 4,931
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