***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Sucks if you had a wedding planned. Even average sized weddings and receptions will no longer be allowed with a 50 person limit.

We bailed on a wedding in Austin next month, one that I was actually looking forward to. I imagine they'll postpone it outright. My dude absolutely out kicked his coverage and Pepé Le Pew'd this chick for years before she even agreed to a date with him. So I know he's shitting himself thinking about any delay in getting her to the altar. She's neurotic enough to take this "as a sign"

Didn't expect a full refund from my Airbnb but they let you ask if you're cancelling for covid reasons and the host gave it to me. Going to pay if forward to a service industry support fund happening here.

[mr. tegu]

I’m not trying to downplay this, and certain areas are certainly having more cases than others, but we are not 10 days behind Italy. We had it here first. We had 20 cases when they had 4 cases on February 2nd. Saying first community spread is not really an important measure. Just because it’s the first identified spread in the US without a known origin doesn’t really matter. Does anyone really think this virus went 26 days from early to late February without being spread around a bunch more? Of course not. And of course it makes sense this community spread was officially identified later because we were only testing few symptomatic people with known ties to those who had it or were possibly to have had it based on travel. But clearly it was spreading undetected long before that.

Regarding South Korea testing comparison, it’s basically impossible to do what they are doing due to population density. Even in their really overcrowded country they have tested just 0.5% of the population. If we would have tested say 300,000 people so far, it would be an incredibly meager 0.09% of the population. Maybe in a few select cities we could test a higher percentage and get more people tested quickly but it’s not applicable in most of the US.

South Korea has the results of tests of 260,000 people with the vast majority tested negative given they only have about 9,000 cases. That’s 3.5% positive tests. On March 4th, 5.5% of people tested positive out of 109,000 tests. That’s a pretty small drop that could be attributed to the testing and social distancing but even more just by sheer numbers of people being tested, which you would also expect to lower the positive test results.

I still believe that there are other factors causing differences in severity in countries and these numbers would support that. Overall I think the measures we have taken will continue to help though and that we will have a trajectory similar to Korea.

[007]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Our healthcare workers are now being asked to take their temperatures before they leave for work and after they get home from work. If they run anything 100 or greater they have to get tested before they can come back.

Guess it's a good thing my core temp is 97.3 then.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by 007

Guess it's a good thing my core temp is 97.3 then.

My normal core temp is 96.5, I've gotten a lot of weird looks from doctors over the years.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by srvy

neither have you chicken little.

Dr. Fauci is viewed by the world as the most knowledgeable and respected infectious disease expert in the world. He has told the public the truth all along. We are lucky at 79 he still has all his intellect to help get us through this crisis.

He says its going to get worse before it gets better. The path we are currently on will not flatten that curve. You and others should listen to his words and guidance on how to best deal with this crisis.

[wazu]

Noticing that the "serious/critical" case count in the U.S. finally updated today and now it's 12 instead of 10.

[Rausch]

NY Gov. Cuomo's press conference from yesterday. Listen to what he's saying. Listen to the way he's saying it.

First he confirms that slowing the spread is what's important and the healthcare system (there) getting swamped is inevitable. Towards the end it depends how you interpret what he's saying. He's basically begging for more resources/authority/people from the federal govt. It's possible what he's asking for is martial law and possible I'm reading too much into this.

Watch the video and hopefully someone more versed in emergency procedures or this gov. can tell us what they think...

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

We bailed on a wedding in Austin next month, one that I was actually looking forward to. I imagine they'll postpone it outright. My dude absolutely out kicked his coverage and Pepé Le Pew'd this chick for years before she even agreed to a date with him. So I know he's shitting himself thinking about any delay in getting her to the altar. She's neurotic enough to take this "as a sign"

I've met a lot of wives of members on here. I'd say most of us on here married above our station.

[Mr. Plow]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

The path we are currently on will not flatten that curve. You and others should listen to his words and guidance on how to best deal with this crisis.

If what we are doing now - closing schools, large gatherings, etc. - won't help then why are we doing it?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I've met a lot of wives of members on here. I'd say most of us on here married above our station.

I didn't...

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Mr. Plow

If what we are doing now - closing schools, large gatherings, etc. - won't help then why are we doing it?

He says we need to do more closings. Too many exceptions. He's the one who pushed for the groups of 50 recommendation from the CDC yesterday. We should have the military set up field hospitals to help the civilian system before they get swamped.

[BigRedChief]

Also Dr. Fauci says we should stop doing elective surgery. It uses resources that we may need later.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Mr. Plow

If what we are doing now - closing schools, large gatherings, etc. - won't help then why are we doing it?

It slows the spread and keeps you in small numbers instead of riling each other up in large numbers.

Things only go to shit if hospitals get swamped. Our healthcare system is what keeps survival rates high. If 2 or 4 or 5x the number of people need ICU than what we can provide those death rates go up - they don't stay at 1%.

If hospitals get swamped things that weren't fatal before can become fatal. People need to be smart. Being smart and considerate is what keeps us from seeing people on ventilators in college dorms and MASH units in tents.

That stuff can lead to panic, panic can lead to marshal law, and then the government tells you what to do and stops asking. I'd prefer to ride this out, for better or worse, in my own home.

If the hospitals get to a point they can't take more people the government will be more than happy to let me die in my air conditioned home...

[Donger]

I wonder what affect this will have on commercial air travel:

CDC recommended organizers "cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States"

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Also Dr. Fauci says we should stop doing elective surgery. It uses resources that we may need later.

It's not the govts. job to be optimistic - it's their job to prepare for the worst.

We need to be calm and optimistic so the worst doesn't happen...