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08-29-2020, 01:43 PM | #43831 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Quote:
I don't think anyone has or is claiming that the PCR test is perfect; it's not. But it's better than nothing. But to say that cases don't matter is asinine. It's so ridiculous that I'm surprised that anyone has the audacity to say it. Would you like to revise this? https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...ostcount=43822 |
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08-29-2020, 02:07 PM | #43832 | ||
Life is changing..
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08-29-2020, 02:13 PM | #43833 | |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Quote:
This means that many of these cases are not actual cases. |
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Posts: 5,442
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08-29-2020, 02:15 PM | #43834 | |
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Quote:
The most widely used diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, called a PCR test, provides a simple yes-no answer to the question of whether a patient is infected. |
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08-29-2020, 02:18 PM | #43835 |
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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08-29-2020, 02:22 PM | #43836 | |
Generational Player
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Quote:
Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said From the author Apoorva Mandavilli @apoorva_nyc If you adjust that down to a more reasonable CT threshold of 30, anywhere form 40%-90% of state lab results are *no longer positive.* The rest are well past the point of contagiousness. |
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08-29-2020, 02:25 PM | #43837 | |
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08-29-2020, 02:28 PM | #43838 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2003
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Quote:
I have no idea why you are bringing up the cycle threshold. I'm not claiming that the PCR test is 100% accurate, or is a good indicator of how contagious a person is. |
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Posts: 186,400
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08-29-2020, 02:29 PM | #43839 |
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I'm not talking about contagiousness. I'm talking about cases. Active and completed.
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08-29-2020, 02:30 PM | #43840 | |
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Join Date: May 2017
Location: Honolulu
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Quote:
The authors point was that we get a yes or no answer but that the calibration of the test is such that we are vastly overstating cases based on too sensitive PCR tests. If we tested at 30 cycles or so many of these "cases" disappear. |
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08-29-2020, 02:34 PM | #43841 | |
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Location: NW Missouri
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Quote:
Would it be possible to make a test that determines if someone is infectious or not? |
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08-29-2020, 02:45 PM | #43842 | |
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Quote:
But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said. The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious. This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are. In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found. So, yes/no isn't good enough to determine how contagious an infected person is. I agree, and again, I'm not arguing about contagiousness. But a positive is still a case, even if the viral load is low. |
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08-29-2020, 02:45 PM | #43843 | |
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There is also the issue of how accurate these tests are..my understanding is that is a big unknown as well. |
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08-29-2020, 02:47 PM | #43844 |
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08-29-2020, 02:48 PM | #43845 | ||
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