***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

There is theoretical herd immunity and then effective herd immunity. It looks like when we hit between 15 and 20 percent seroprevalence that Covid starts to break apart and head down.

See Arizona.

Definitely seems true for now. Which would be awesome if it holds true over a longer period of time.

Doesn’t mean you treat it like open range. No masks, no distancing results in huge community spread and hospitals pushed to the brink.

See Arizona.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Definitely seems true for now. Which would be awesome if it holds true over a longer period of time.

Doesn’t mean you treat it like open range. No masks, no distancing results in huge community spread and hospitals pushed to the brink.

See Arizona.

Arizona peaked a while ago. There is no reason to believe they can't open up now.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Cases are not infections. We aren't testing for active infections.

Oh? So, new cases are not confirmed/positive infections, eh?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Arizona peaked a while ago. There is no reason to believe they can't open up now.

I agree. We are opening up In AZ and should be. But we acted too slow and neglected a mask mandate and kept all businesses open following no guidelines. This created a large scale stress on hospitals in the state. If you’re arguing that we should be open like normal with no guidelines, I disagree. It did not work here at all.

Keep businesses open but require basic precautions. That’s all I’m arguing.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Quite possibly your dumbest take yet. There’s no permanent immunity going about this the natural way, so it will always been present in much higher numbers than if a vaccine is present in this scenario.

Give him a week or two. Next claim will be we are back to normal. From there any reference to the virus will be in the past tense.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Oh? So, new cases are not confirmed/positive infections, eh?

Correct.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Correct.

Excellent. So how do you define a new case? We had almost 50,000 yesterday.

[kgrund]

Does Donger read this thread other than his posts? It has been widely discussed on this Board the limitations of the PCR test and hence what a positive test actually means. Do you not read the body of discussions pointing this out or choose to ignore anything not from CNN?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Does Donger read this thread other than his posts? It has been widely discussed on this Board the limitations of the PCR test and hence what a positive test actually means. Do you not read the body of discussions pointing this out or choose to ignore anything not from CNN?

Why don't we just wait to see how he defines a new case, shall we?

[kgrund]

Why does he have to when it has been widely discussed on this board. It seems clear you put all your faith in a limited test result and others recognize their could be more relevant and reliable metrics to focus on.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Why does he have to when it has been widely discussed on this board. It seems clear you put all your faith in a limited test result and others recognize their could be more relevant and reliable metrics to focus on.

I guess I missed it. This discussion began when CASES! were mocked. I would like to think that we all understand that without cases/infections, there would be no pandemic. That when we see a rise in cases (e.g., FL, CA, TX, AZ), we see increases in hospitalizations and deaths.

Those facts are not disputable. It has been demonstrated.

Therefore, why mock cases?

[kgrund]

Because the other side is equally true in that a positive case can mean absolutely nothing. Without revisiting all of the discussions about the test, unless the test can determine you have the virus now and are infectious, it is highly limited.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Because the other side is equally true in that a positive case can mean absolutely nothing. Without revisiting all of the discussions about the test, unless the test can determine you have the virus now and are infectious, it is highly limited.

Yes, some people who become infected are asymptomatic. That doesn't mean "absolutely nothing" at all. Are you saying that you believe there is no asymptomatic spread?

Would you agree that the vast majority of the new cases reported each day are the result of testing?

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Why does he have to when it has been widely discussed on this board. It seems clear you put all your faith in a limited test result and others recognize their could be more relevant and reliable metrics to focus on.

Some of us do not live in this thread and since it is a mega thread that information gets lost.

[MahomesMagic]

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be.

In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found..

In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/h...s-testing.html