***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Don't think Arizona did. SK had around 17,000 cases, 300 deaths and about 300 cases per 1,000,000.
If you think Arizona "crushed" it I don't know what to tell you.

They bent the curve down significantly. Isn't that what the whole thing is about?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I think it was you who mentioned the northern part of Italy getting hit hardest early and asking if they had seen an increase recently. If so, it looks like they have (again relatively).

Yeah, again though, they aren't having spread issues as they did early. It's the same in NY. You won't have zero cases.

This thing isn't every going to go to zero cases. We're all on board with that realization, no?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think that’s a problem that we haven’t really talked about

Obesity is so hard on your body already

I’m seeing a lot of this too in the less than 65 age range. Severe cases seem variable below 65 years old, but many who are younger and dying are in fact overweight.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

They bent the curve down significantly. Isn't that what the whole thing is about?

Arizona is really pretty interesting. They had very gradual case growth from the end of March until early June (~150 new daily cases to ~350). Then, it went nuts from 350/day to 3,500/day in less than a month). I think the fact that Arizona went from 3,500/day to 750/day now in about a month and a half is a pretty good example of success.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Arizona is really pretty interesting. They had very gradual case growth from the end of March until early June (~150 new daily cases to ~350). Then, it went nuts from 350/day to 3,500/day in less than a month). I think the fact that Arizona went from 3,500/day to 750/day now in about a month and a half is a pretty good example of success.

Yeah, Florida and Texas seem to be following.

Especially if they're only catching 1 in 10 infections with testing.

[O.city]

Pakistan is another interesting situation. They're going down quickly and I'm not sure what they're doing.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, again though, they aren't having spread issues as they did early. It's the same in NY. You won't have zero cases.

This thing isn't every going to go to zero cases. We're all on board with that realization, no?

New Zealand (an outlier, I know) saw zero cases for 100 days. So, it CAN be done given the correct circumstances. I guess they are still trying to figure out where the new cases came from, and it sounds like their working theory is that it got in from outside their borders.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

New Zealand (an outlier, I know) saw zero cases for 100 days. So, it CAN be done given the correct circumstances. I guess they are still trying to figure out where the new cases came from, and it sounds like their working theory is that it got in from outside their borders.

Thats the issue though, we're too connected for that to ever be the case. Even if you get it down to zero in a spot, unless it happens everywhere, it's not feasible.

It's just something we're gonna have to live with.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, again though, they aren't having spread issues as they did early. It's the same in NY. You won't have zero cases.

This thing isn't every going to go to zero cases. We're all on board with that realization, no?

Donger has always chased ZERO cases no matter the carnage.🙄

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Donger

Arizona is really pretty interesting. They had very gradual case growth from the end of March until early June (~150 new daily cases to ~350). Then, it went nuts from 350/day to 3,500/day in less than a month). I think the fact that Arizona went from 3,500/day to 750/day now in about a month and a half is a pretty good example of success.

After an outright failure. And let's keep an eye on the numbers as the temperatures cool. There's an ebb and flow to this town that must be understood.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Thats the issue though, we're too connected for that to ever be the case. Even if you get it down to zero in a spot, unless it happens everywhere, it's not feasible.

It's just something we're gonna have to live with.

I know. But the simple fact is that we didn't ever drive cases below 20,000/day. And places opened up too early. And we had our second "wave" of triple that.

I'm just glad it's coming down. National positivity has shown sustained decline and we are now at 6.1%

That's good.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Donger has always chased ZERO cases no matter the carnage.🙄

No I haven't. I've always wanted to drive the R0 below 1 and crush this ****er.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I know. But the simple fact is that we didn't ever drive cases below 20,000/day. And places opened up too early. And we had our second "wave" of triple that.

I'm just glad it's coming down. National positivity has shown sustained decline and we are now at 6.1%

That's good.

Eh, it's been more complicated than that though. We didn't really have a second wave in that no places that had a first true "wave" had a second one. We're really still in our first wave breaking across the country.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by eDave

After an outright failure.

It really only looks like things failed in Arizona in late May. New case growth was pretty low until then.

What are you referring to?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Eh, it's been more complicated than that though. We didn't really have a second wave in that no places that had a first true "wave" had a second one. We're really still in our first wave breaking across the country.

Hence the quotes around wave.