***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

I was thinking about this last night. Population density per square mile:

USA = 87
China = 377
Italy = 518
Spain = 241
Germany = 603
ROK = 1,339

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by TLO

You don't happen to mean the re-airing of last year's race in St. Petersburg, do you?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by cdcox

We don't have nearly enough testing capacity to deploy this strategy.

The strategy of everyone getting tested? Of course not.

Not everyone needs to though. And frankly behaving as if you've already been exposed isn't a bad idea. Don't shut your life down but limit unnecessary exposures to people.

Resources might become limited so just not catching the normal flu or getting sick takes some weight off the system. If you can be healthy and prevent having to go to the doc or the hospital do so.

The only thing better than having basic supplies on hand is not having to use them.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by TLO

You don't happen to mean the re-airing of last year's race in St. Petersburg, do you?

social media locally freaked out when the broadcast started. Then people downtown said they didn’t hear the cars and people figured out it’s last years race. Sorry my bad.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by cdcox

There is uncertainty, no doubt. I tend to question the 4-6 week time line because there would be way more cases if that were true.

Agreed. Its has not been here since December or before China at least for community spreading. That is all nonsense. People will believe what they want to believe though.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

I was thinking about this last night. Population density per square mile:

USA = 87
China = 377
Italy = 518
Spain = 241
Germany = 603
ROK = 1,339

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

I was thinking about this last night. Population density per square mile:

USA = 87
China = 377
Italy = 518
Spain = 241
Germany = 603
ROK = 1,339

But if population density was a big factor, I think we should see it in a slower spread as measured by number of new cases per day. We're still tracking almost lock step with Italy on new cases (which is scary because we're barely testing).

Population size however obviously matters and buys us a little more time.

[frozenchief]

Originally Posted by Donger

I was thinking about this last night. Population density per square mile:

USA = 87
China = 377
Italy = 518
Spain = 241
Germany = 603
ROK = 1,339

True, but that varies greatly. NYC has far different density than Alaska, which has a population density of about 1.2

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I don't think what China is doing is the answer but I also don't think what South Koreas is doing will necessarily work here. USA population is more than triple South Koreas.

I hope you are right though. Time will tell.

I am not optimistic - I'll leave it at that.

Whatever does happen people making bad decisions will only make every problem worse. Plan for the worst - plan and not panic - and you'll be as prepared as anyone can be. If you are prepared there is no reason to panic.

I want to do everything in my control to not go to the doctor, hospital, or rely on others. The more people that behave this way the better off we'll be.

NY will the 1st televised area where dramatic steps will be taken. Hopefully they respond as positively as they did after 9/11 and are once again a good example of compassion, responsibility, and community...

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

But if population density was a big factor, I think we should see it in a slower spread as measured by number of new cases per day. We're still tracking almost lock step with Italy on new cases (which is scary because we're barely testing).

Population size however obviously matters and buys us a little more time.

This data is a little bit misleading, as certain parts of our country are almost uninhabited

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...tes-of-the-us/

[PAChiefsGuy]

NYC Teachers threatening mass sick out if schools don't close

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...hools-teachers

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by SupDock

BREAKING: Another HUGE increase in #CoronaVirus infections in Italy ����

3 590 infected and 368 dead today alone.

- 24 747 infected.
- 1 809 dead.
- 7.3% death rate.

This is a human tragedy ��

— PeterSweden (@PeterSweden7) March 15, 2020

Italy has an older population. I would imagine they also have a high smoking rate which probably makes it worse.

But this is also what happens when hospitals are overwhelmed.

Wuhan had a 7% death rate during their peak while hospitals that were farther away were less than 1%.

Italy is currently having to choose which patients not to treat which is literally leaving them to die.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Is it overkill at this point if drastic measures were taken to the level of:

Suspend all air travel
All interstate travel is shut down
Require all non essential businesses to suspend business
Encourage everyone to stay at home
Ban all groupings of a certain amount of people

That was from the 12th....how about now? It’s still early enough to suffocate this thing, no?

The only things that cross state lines are essential movements to transport supplies and a special scannable identifier is placed on those vehicles that signifies everything contained is safe for transport.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by cdcox

The first community spread case in the US wasn't discovered until 2/28. Earlier cases were contained. That is when our clock started.

Thank you

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

I was thinking about this last night. Population density per square mile:

USA = 87
China = 377
Italy = 518
Spain = 241
Germany = 603
ROK = 1,339

I would think the numbers are skewed because the vast majority of our citizens live in large metropolitan areas. But, they may be true everywhere in the world?