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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 07-19-2017, 12:52 AM   #4096
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Which players have ascended since the 2011 draft?

You seem to have no problem criticizing the Chiefs but zero when it comes to the Royals.

Yet, which team ascending and which teams is descending?
What evidence do you possess that illustrates that the Chiefs are ascending?

Getting bounced from the Divisional Round of the playoffs has been a favorite pastime of the Chiefs since the 90's. I've seen no evidence that they've ascended beyond that traditional January disappointment since.

As for the Royals descending from the mountaintop, well, not every team can be a dynasty. Though many primary Chiefs fans seem to confuse pyrrhic regular season success as such.

To answer your question. I've actually acknowledged the Royals shortcomings through the draft several times (i.e. see OP), but if you really want me to answer, I'd point out that Cain, Escobar, Strahm, Bonifacio, Cuthbert and Manaea are all players that either the Royals acquired or who ascended through the Royals system since the 2011 draft. I know many Royals fans are ready for us to write off players like Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier, but I'll again defer to the hoards of people who wanted to write off Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy and Wade Davis during their initial struggles with the team.

Baseball requires patience, and seeing that we're less than two years from a championship, the Royals FO have earned this type of patience. This is a stark juxtaposition to the team across the parking lot, whose sights are always set on "next year."
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Old 07-19-2017, 12:58 AM   #4097
C3HIEF3S C3HIEF3S is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Which players have ascended since the 2011 draft?

You seem to have no problem criticizing the Chiefs but zero when it comes to the Royals.

Yet, which team ascending and which teams is descending?
The Royals are descending from two pennants and a World Series Title and the Chiefs are ascending from one playoff win in the last 24 years and no conference championships in what is now nearing a half-century.

I don't blame anyone giving the Royals a well-earned leash.
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Old 07-19-2017, 06:26 AM   #4098
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Which players have ascended since the 2011 draft?

You seem to have no problem criticizing the Chiefs but zero when it comes to the Royals.

Yet, which team ascending and which teams is descending?

The Chiefs operate from a level playing field and equal revenue sharing. There is no farm system. Talent acquisition is all through the draft or trade or free agency, which operates with a hard cap.

So no, they don't get the same leash. Because they don't face any of the same challenges the Royals do. The deck is stacked against the Royals by the financial inequality in baseball.

Moore's draft record of late is not stellar. They need to adjust (and think they did well in the past two drafts, especially operating without a first rounder in 2016).

2015 was a disaster. But 2014 and 2013 were also good uses of the draft. Finnegan contributed heavily to one WS run and was the key piece in a deal that helped secure a WS win. Manaea was chased in similarly, as was Cody Reed (who also was a 2013 pick).

Kyle Zimmer has been a huge frustration, but that wasn't a scouting mistake. They were right about how good he was. The arm problems would have been impossible to forecast. That's bad luck.

Bubba Starling and Christian Colon have been talked to death. Colon is the worst bust of the Dayton Moore area (Starling was at least a consensus top 5 pick and was in consideration at #2 and #4).

I've broken it down before. Moore has hit in the first round more than he has missed. The changes to the draft season and the Royals success have damaged the team's ability to restock the system over the past five years, too.

And as for his FA signings, I don't think it's logical or fair to use hindsight to critique deals that were met with approval when completed but look bad now (Gordon).
If you want to critique Moss or Infante, OK.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy View Post
How about buy asap and make a run? Id rather give up some mediocre prospects and make a run than sale and get less than what Martinez brought back. Just hurry the hell up and light a fire.

Yeah, in this environment, think you're better off moving some unimpressive milb depth and adding a bat and an arm.

Jay Bruce is going to be CHEAP, based on what was given up for Martinez. Lance Lynn or Jamie Garcia won't cost a fortune and would reinforce that 5 spot.




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Old 07-19-2017, 06:35 AM   #4099
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
The state of this discussion has been pretty sad at times.

We have a GM who has led a small market team to unparalleled success out of any small market team since the turn of the century.

Yet, because of things like the tragedy of Yordano Ventura's death, he's "sucked ass."

Give it a break. This isn't MLB the Show. GM's can't edit a players attributes to fill their rosters with all-stars. I challenge anyone to name a GM who has taken a team with the Royals payroll to the heights that Moore has taken the Royals.

Protip: u can't.

I feel like Leia making a distress call to Obi-Wan. Reaper and Al would do wonders for this discussion at this time.


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Old 07-19-2017, 07:16 AM   #4100
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Anyway, since I'm talking about Jay Bruce and Lance Lynn, figured I'd try to shape it.

Martinez commanded the no 4, 15 prospects from a similar system, plus a popup guy in the Dominican Summer League (lowest MiLb level). For the Royals, an exact copy of that return would be something like Scott Brewer (preseason #4), Miguel Almonte (#15) and Ricky Aracena.

I think KC can get Bruce for less - let's say Scott Blewett and C Meibrys Viloria, who is probably extraneous at this point.

Now, on to Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia. This is harder, because we haven't had any pitching rentals moved at this point. For Lynn, I'd think it would have a bigger price tag than Bruce.

That talk probably starts with someone like Chase Vallot or Nicky Lopez. And not sure if it's enough, unless the Cardinals scouts see Lopez as a regular. Vallot is more intriguing, as a potential C with plus power and OBP skills (but big swing and moss, and questions about his D).

The Royals do have some young, controllable guys with elite back-end reliever stuff in Lovelady, Almonte, and possibly Staumont.

It's easier to see a fit for Garcia, who would command less. I think that's still a deal worth making, especially if you can pair it with a deal for Pat Neshek. Guessing at a return, I would think each is worth a prospect that projects as a solid reserve at MLB level and a lotto ticket guy.

All three of these deals are within the Royals capability to get, without expending the top players in a so-so system.

Merrrifield
Bruce
Cain
Hosmer
Perez
Moustakas
Bonifacio
Gordon
Escobar

Duffy
Kennedy
Vargas
Hammer
Garcia

Herrera
Minor/Neshek/Soria

That works.


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Old 07-19-2017, 07:25 AM   #4101
Unsmooth-Moment Unsmooth-Moment is offline
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Is the Tigers haul worth more or less than a comp pick? That is what it comes down to for me. If we get similar value for Moose/Cain/Hos are we better off waiting for comp picks or is #4/#15 out of another team's farm worth more? Asking because I do not have a good grasp of prospects outside top 30-50.
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Old 07-19-2017, 07:57 AM   #4102
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsmooth-Moment View Post
Is the Tigers haul worth more or less than a comp pick? That is what it comes down to for me. If we get similar value for Moose/Cain/Hos are we better off waiting for comp picks or is #4/#15 out of another team's farm worth more? Asking because I do not have a good grasp of prospects outside top 30-50.

I'd say less, and I'd hesitate to call the Tigers return a "haul."

I'd take comp picks all day long over what the Tigers for, even the lower tier comp picks.


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Old 07-19-2017, 08:08 AM   #4103
ChiTown ChiTown is offline
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Al is, was, and will always be the biggest idiot this board ever spat out
truth bomb
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:10 AM   #4104
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

I have no interaction with al other than in this thread, really.

I miss him in Royals threads.

What is this dislike of him based on?


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Old 07-19-2017, 08:24 AM   #4105
Sure-Oz Sure-Oz is offline
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Gotta think GMDM gotta be working the phones...can't stand pat. Hopefully they end this skid tonight

I've been about sell but if JD Martinez isn't getting much I'm thinking their better off getting a hitter, SP and reliever if they can
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:24 AM   #4106
DeepSouth DeepSouth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Anyway, since I'm talking about Jay Bruce and Lance Lynn, figured I'd try to shape it.

Martinez commanded the no 4, 15 prospects from a similar system, plus a popup guy in the Dominican Summer League (lowest MiLb level). For the Royals, an exact copy of that return would be something like Scott Brewer (preseason #4), Miguel Almonte (#15) and Ricky Aracena.

I think KC can get Bruce for less - let's say Scott Blewett and C Meibrys Viloria, who is probably extraneous at this point.

Now, on to Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia. This is harder, because we haven't had any pitching rentals moved at this point. For Lynn, I'd think it would have a bigger price tag than Bruce.

That talk probably starts with someone like Chase Vallot or Nicky Lopez. And not sure if it's enough, unless the Cardinals scouts see Lopez as a regular. Vallot is more intriguing, as a potential C with plus power and OBP skills (but big swing and moss, and questions about his D).

The Royals do have some young, controllable guys with elite back-end reliever stuff in Lovelady, Almonte, and possibly Staumont.

It's easier to see a fit for Garcia, who would command less. I think that's still a deal worth making, especially if you can pair it with a deal for Pat Neshek. Guessing at a return, I would think each is worth a prospect that projects as a solid reserve at MLB level and a lotto ticket guy.

All three of these deals are within the Royals capability to get, without expending the top players in a so-so system.

Merrrifield
Bruce
Cain
Hosmer
Perez
Moustakas
Bonifacio
Gordon
Escobar

Duffy
Kennedy
Vargas
Hammer
Garcia

Herrera
Minor/Neshek/Soria

That works.


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Duncan, What do you do with Moss. Do the Royals cut him loose and eat next year's salary?
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:39 AM   #4107
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Originally Posted by DeepSouth View Post
Duncan, What do you do with Moss. Do the Royals cut him loose and eat next year's salary?

Hang on to him, use him as a bench bat, and give him regular at-bats during the 2018 season in the hopes he plays well enough to flip at the trade deadline for something of value.

If he's as terrible out of the gate in 18 as he has been this year, you cut him loose.


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Old 07-19-2017, 08:42 AM   #4108
WhawhaWhat WhawhaWhat is offline
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Greg Holland is the first closer in MLB this season to get to 30 saves.
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:43 AM   #4109
ChiTown ChiTown is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I have no interaction with al other than in this thread, really.

I miss him in Royals threads.

What is this dislike of him based on?


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Sorry, I thought he was talking about Bundy. My bad. Al North was a solid contributor
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:47 AM   #4110
penbrook penbrook is offline
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
Greg Holland is the first closer in MLB this season to get to 30 saves.
Good for him. He deserves it
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