***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

Am I reading this correctly? We've gone from a rolling 7-day death average of 516/day on July 5 to 918/day on July 24?

Probably. We have been over 1k deaths for the last 5 days right?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Education can also be done from home.

Then it isn’t essential and we should not have to pay the taxes we do for school?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Probably. We have been over 1k deaths for the last 5 days right?

Close, we have been over 1k deaths for the last 4 days.

[O.city]

What if the deaths actually happened in May and are just now being counted

Does that?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

What if the deaths actually happened in May and are just now being counted

Does that?

You kinda wonder about some of that, right? That can go for case counts as well.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

What if the deaths actually happened in May and are just now being counted

Does that?

What makes you think that's happening?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

So the other studies aren’t ok and too small but the ones rhat say what you think are ok? Confirmation bias?

Dr Jha is a leading expert on this so I will take his word for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/h...n-schools.html

Several studies from Europe and Asia have suggested that young children are less likely to get infected and to spread the virus. But most of those studies were small and flawed, said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The new study “is very carefully done, it’s systematic and looks at a very large population,” Dr. Jha said. “It’s one of the best studies we’ve had to date on this issue.”

Other experts also praised the scale and rigor of the analysis. South Korean researchers identified 5,706 people who were the first to report Covid-19 symptoms in their households between Jan. 20 and March 27, when schools were closed, and then traced the 59,073 contacts of these “index cases.” They tested all of the household contacts of each patient, regardless of symptoms, but only tested symptomatic contacts outside the household.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Donger

What makes you think that's happening?

Sometimes I think your only window to the outside world is CNN and this thread. It is widely reported in many instances on twitter and backed by support from various local, county, and state health sites.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Sometimes I think your only window to the outside world is CNN and this thread. It is widely reported in many instances on twitter and backed by support from various local, county, and state health sites.

That's nice, but I'm not looking at CNN to get those figures.

The fact remains that new case growth began to increase in mid-June. We began seeing increased deaths in early July.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

That's nice, but I'm not looking at CNN to get those figures.

The fact remains that new case growth began to increase in mid-June. We began seeing increased deaths in early July.

You can easily find dates on reported deaths.

They definitely show a rise in July but there’s a lot of death cert counting and backlog just now being counter

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Dr Jha is a leading expert on this so I will take his word for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/h...n-schools.html

So if I find leading experts that say other wise ?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

You can easily find dates on reported deaths.

They definitely show a rise in July but there’s a lot of death cert counting and backlog just now being counter

Great. So if it's easy, can you show that deaths of any significant quantity that are being reported now actually happened in May?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by O.city

You can easily find dates on reported deaths.

They definitely show a rise in July but there’s a lot of death cert counting and backlog just now being counter

https://twitter.com/prof_jtaylor/sta...637573633?s=21

Here’s Florida deaths by date of occurrence

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

So if I find leading experts that say other wise ?

That is fine I am interested in reading it all. I read the study about Germany schools a couple of weeks ago.

We are going to know soon enough anyway I think.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

That is fine I am interested in reading it all. I read the study about Germany schools a couple of weeks ago.

We are going to know soon enough anyway I think.

I honestly don’t know the answer

I’m pretty pissed we didn’t take the last four months to do as much as possible to figure out the schools issue atleast more than we have

Frustrating