***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

Nope. Don't need one to know this is being blown totally out of proportion.

So who do you believe in situations like this, when all the experts are concerned, and you hear about other countries with hospitals that are overcrowded?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Donger

What is the "normal" ICU % capacity during flu season?

I think the issue is that normally people don’t flood the hospital when it’s just the flu going around. At least until their symptoms get really bad or they have underlying conditions.

With what’s going on now....people are rushing to the hospital if they only have half the symptoms because they’re freaked out.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

I respectfully disagree. Guess it depends on what you yourself determines what "facts" are.

A good place to start would be stating facts you disagree with, and why.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I said previously that we only had 10K ventilators in reserve. Dr. Fauci said on the Sunday morning TV shows it’s at 12K now. Hospital ICU’s are at 80% capacity with just “normal ICU” cases. A very small % with the coronavirus. He said Italy’s doctors are deciding who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t.

But what is normal ICU capacity utilization this time of year?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

Nope. Don't need one to know this is being blown totally out of proportion.

So what's going on in Spain and Italy is just baseless panic, and the leading experts in the world in their fields are merely stoking fear?

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by loochy

But what is normal ICU capacity utilization this time of year?

I couldn't find that information

From personal experience, 60 to 80 percent feels right. You have a pretty steady state of patients discharging (or stepping down in acuity) and being admitted. If you get a little high you can divert to another facility, etc.

My experience is definitely anecdotal though.

Something to keep in mind is that the ICU physicians often are running a hospitals pulmonology consultation service. They are often seeing non-ICU patients as well.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

So what's going on in Spain and Italy is just baseless panic, and the leading experts in the world in their fields are merely stoking fear?

Do you think that can be done here? Honest question.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

What is the "normal" ICU % capacity during flu season?

no idea. Dr. Fauci didn’t say what was “normal” just what the level is currently.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Do you think that can be done here? Honest question.

We need relief for hourly workers. Period. Or it’s not going to happen.

Some kind of extended mortgage relief (a freeze that doesn’t accrue interest) should also be on the table. That way Mortgage payments are simply delayed rather than forgiven for folks who are economically impacted while more extensive relief can be given to folks who are severely impacted by the disease.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

I respectfully disagree. Guess it depends on what you yourself determines what "facts" are.

Who, specifically, is fear mongering?

[KS Smitty]

From Italy:

...So here’s my warning for the United States: It didn’t have to come to this.

We of course couldn’t stop the emergence of a previously unknown and deadly virus. But we could have mitigated the situation we are now in, in which people who could have been saved are dying. I, and too many others, could have taken a simple yet morally loaded action: We could have stayed home.

What has happened in Italy shows that less-than-urgent appeals to the public by the government to slightly change habits regarding social interactions aren’t enough when the terrible outcomes they are designed to prevent are not yet apparent; when they become evident, it’s generally too late to act. I and many other Italians just didn’t see the need to change our routines for a threat we could not see.

Italy has now been in lockdown since March 9; it took weeks after the virus first appeared here to realize that severe measures were absolutely necessary.

According to several data scientists, Italy is about 10 days ahead of Spain, Germany, and France in the epidemic progression, and 13 to 16 days ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States. That means those countries have the opportunity to take measures that today may look excessive and disproportionate, yet from the future, where I am now, are perfectly rational in order to avoid a health care system collapse. The United States has some 45,000 ICU beds, and even in a moderate outbreak scenario, some 200,000 Americans will need intensive care.

Before the outbreak hit my country, I thought I was acting rationally because I screened and processed a lot of information about the epidemic. But my being well-informed didn’t make me any more rational. I lacked what you might call “moral knowledge” of the problem. I knew about the virus, but the issue was not affecting me in a significant, personal way. It took the terrible ethical dilemma that doctors face in Lombardy to wake me up....

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...UAyZv4Og7kDXG4

[tk13]

Italy just had the worst day any country has had yet. About 3500 new cases just yesterday.

Italy reports 368 more coronavirus deaths, taking total to more than 1,800 https://t.co/nG75UCGMPc pic.twitter.com/fUdG1bBWl0

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) March 15, 2020

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If anyone has Comcast they are suspending their data cap for the next 2 months, if you pay to be uncapped you have to call and cancel that or you'll still be charged, just had to do this.

I think Comcast will open its wireless network too.....to help with online learning.

[MahiMike]

Just went to Best Buy to look for a 2nd monitor. Blue shirt guy says, "did you boss tell you to work from home?". I said yes. He goes, "Yea, we only have 1 left and it's $250".

I could buy another laptop for that price.

Looks like I wasn't the 1st to think of this. So I guess I'll be shopping online.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

From Italy:

...So here’s my warning for the United States: It didn’t have to come to this.

We of course couldn’t stop the emergence of a previously unknown and deadly virus. But we could have mitigated the situation we are now in, in which people who could have been saved are dying. I, and too many others, could have taken a simple yet morally loaded action: We could have stayed home.

What has happened in Italy shows that less-than-urgent appeals to the public by the government to slightly change habits regarding social interactions aren’t enough when the terrible outcomes they are designed to prevent are not yet apparent; when they become evident, it’s generally too late to act. I and many other Italians just didn’t see the need to change our routines for a threat we could not see.

Italy has now been in lockdown since March 9; it took weeks after the virus first appeared here to realize that severe measures were absolutely necessary.

According to several data scientists, Italy is about 10 days ahead of Spain, Germany, and France in the epidemic progression, and 13 to 16 days ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States. That means those countries have the opportunity to take measures that today may look excessive and disproportionate, yet from the future, where I am now, are perfectly rational in order to avoid a health care system collapse. The United States has some 45,000 ICU beds, and even in a moderate outbreak scenario, some 200,000 Americans will need intensive care.

Before the outbreak hit my country, I thought I was acting rationally because I screened and processed a lot of information about the epidemic. But my being well-informed didn’t make me any more rational. I lacked what you might call “moral knowledge” of the problem. I knew about the virus, but the issue was not affecting me in a significant, personal way. It took the terrible ethical dilemma that doctors face in Lombardy to wake me up....

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...UAyZv4Og7kDXG4

I have many friends and family in Italy and can tell you that this post is spot on — it’s partially cultural (congregating with friends is the national pasttime) and partially because they just didn’t believe there was anything to really worry about. “It’s just a flu” is about all you’d get from the most concerned with the majority of Italians believing this was much ado about nothing and certainly didn’t warrant a change in the behavior of getting together with friends and family on a daily basis.