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11-21-2017, 04:16 PM | |
In Search of a Life
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David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.
The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs |
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01-01-2018, 10:50 AM | #391 | |
SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
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01-01-2018, 10:52 AM | #392 | |
MVP
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Quote:
Mahomes best receiver all game was Wilson, and his bet RB was the Sausage |
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01-01-2018, 10:53 AM | #393 |
Choco Favre
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01-01-2018, 11:08 AM | #394 | |
On Hiatus
Join Date: Aug 2000
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Quote:
Carr is showing his tendency to be Phillip Rivers V2.0....Marshawn Lynch isn't the RB he was with Seattle...and Crabtree/Cooper combo is great one minute and then disappear the next. On offense the studs are Osemele and Hudson. Khalil Mack is a stud on defense...would love to have him here in KC. Bowman was a great pickup but I think he still is a step slower than in his prime. Beyond that I don't see anything more than decent talent. |
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01-01-2018, 12:10 PM | #395 | |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Pueblo,CO
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Quote:
However, I do agree that the Raiders have MVP talent in (both) Carr, and Mack. Also, I think your Rivers comparison is really close to being spot on---inconsistent footwork, sandlot player, throws without touch a lot of times. Air Raid QB's don't have a lot of success in the NFL |
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01-01-2018, 12:13 PM | #396 | |
sorta mod-ish
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01-01-2018, 12:17 PM | #397 | |
Banned
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Quote:
It's just that guys like him have spotty (inconsistent) success |
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01-01-2018, 12:19 PM | #398 | |
Court Jester
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01-01-2018, 12:21 PM | #399 |
Court Jester
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01-01-2018, 12:23 PM | #400 |
Banned
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Location: Pueblo,CO
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I'm comparing Mahomes to Brett Favre the Hall of Famer and not Brett Favre the NFL prospect. Mahomes has the same problem that all air raid QBs have - they have to unlearn a lot of what would be bad habits at the next level and then retrain themselves substantially in order to play in the NFL. And the curse is worse with the best of them. The better they have the air raid ingrained in their muscle memory and reactions, the harder it is for them to shake these traits that are undesirable at the NFL level and then get themselves completely rebooted.
Love Mahomes but think it's still premature to start the kid. Last edited by Pueblo Chieftan; 01-01-2018 at 12:29 PM.. |
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01-01-2018, 12:36 PM | #401 | |
Special Teams ACE!!!
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Air Raid QBs have sucked for a long time because the system doesn't require that much talent to produce big numbers. Graham ****ing Harrell can set the NCAA on fire in that system. As you've already acknowledged, Mahomes has talent in spades. He's NOT Graham Harrell. |
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01-01-2018, 12:51 PM | #402 | |
Banned
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Also, their pass rush is one of the worst |
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01-01-2018, 01:15 PM | #403 | |
In Search of a Life
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Until then, we'll hear Andy and veach tap dance around the question because they won't talk bad about Smith going into the playoffs and they won't want to hurt his trade value. |
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01-01-2018, 01:22 PM | #404 | |
Banned
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Location: Pueblo,CO
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He has a lot to prove yet as far as I'm concerned. *Patrick Mahomes on Chiefs' playbook: 'A lot harder than I thought' http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...gn=twitter_atn |
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01-01-2018, 01:24 PM | #405 | |
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