***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

They were having the same things in Texas about a month ago, now deaths are following.

I guess only time will tell but I have to point out that cases started rising at the same time in Kansas as they did Texas. Both around June 18th.

It isn't like cases started rising in Kansas last week.

[petegz28]

He more or less said if you want to open schools you have to lock down everything else....

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://reaction.life/we-may-already...sunetra-gupta/

Good read from the lady at Oxford.

Gupta

Why don’t we get flu pandemics anymore? Because before 1918 there was not sufficient international travel or densities of individuals to keep flu on as the sort of seasonal thing it is now. Pockets of non-immune people would build up, and then they would be ravaged.

That was the pattern until the end of the First World War. Since then, many of these diseases have become endemic. As a result of which we are much more exposed to diseases in general and related pathogens, so if something new comes along we are much better off than we would be if we hadn’t had some sort of exposure to it.

If coronavirus had arrived in a setting where we had no coronavirus exposure before, we might be much worse off. It also seems that in addition to protection against severe disease as a result of exposure to related coronaviruses, some fraction of us seem to be resistant to infection.

[petegz28]

The head doctor for Ks just kinda shot himself in the foot..

Question posed: why did we see a similar type of increase under lock down as we are now?

Answer: We are testing more

Earlier he stated the rise in cases is not due to increased testing....

Seems kind circular to me

[petegz28]

He did say the inflammatory disease in the kids is extremely rare....

[Donger]

To be expected, but it sucks to see deaths go above 1,000 again. Hopefully it's not a trend.

[petegz28]

KBOE voted 5-5 not to support to delay of starting school so the executive order to delay school failed

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://reaction.life/we-may-already...sunetra-gupta/

Good read from the lady at Oxford.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

To be expected, but it sucks to see deaths go above 1,000 again. Hopefully it's not a trend.

Based on cases, deaths should peak in 2-3 weeks.

My little analysis I posted had deaths getting close to 2k/day. I calculated CFR + 28 days based on positivity % in each state - looking backwards to get CFR then extrapolating forward. Basically I came up with a range of CFR+28 of between 5% and 2% - based on positivity rate.

But it starting to look like this wave in FL/TX/AZ is skewing younger as time goes on, so the CFR + 28 days will be lower.

[displacedinMN]

CV test monday-back today. I am OK. not a surprise.
Lab test completed at Mayo.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by petegz28

KBOE voted 5-5 not to support to delay of starting school so the executive order to delay school failed

Thank goodness.

Let the districts decide.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Yep though I am wondering how this is all going to work with these multiple vaccines because they all do it differently. So who gets to decide which vaccine a person gets?

That is why these companies are locking in commitments from the government. If they succeed in making an effective FDA-approved vaccine, then we promise to buy X of it.

They are trying to avoid what happened with the Ebola virus, where a company managed to create a vaccine through a lot of effort and money, only to find that the world lost interest and there was no one to sell their vaccine to.

[petegz28]

the media is all over the joint...

California’s confirmed coronavirus cases have topped 409,000, surpassing New York for most in the nation, according to data from John’s Hopkins University showing Wednesday that California now has about 1,200 more cases than New York.


However, New York’s 72,302 deaths are by far the highest total in the country and nine times more than California’s tally, and its rate of confirmed infections of about 2,100 per 100,000 people is twice California’s rate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/cali...rus-cases.html

However Worldometers shows NY at 436k cases and only 32.6k deaths

CNBC\AP is so ****ing off....there are 35,200 deaths in NY and 72,302 recovered according to Johns Hopkins

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

So refutations? The epidemiologist at Oxford is off on?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

the media is all over the joint...


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/cali...rus-cases.html

However Worldometers shows NY at 436k cases and only 32.6k deaths

CNBC\AP is so ****ing off....there are 35,200 deaths in NY and 72,302 recovered according to Johns Hopkins

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Whooops