***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Here is the link to the CDC serology. Am I reading this right, in MO they are saying 2.8% of the population has been infected based on their estimate?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...dashboard.html

Based on that, when they did the tests, yes. So what, late April?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Here is the link to the CDC serology. Am I reading this right, in MO they are saying 2.8% of the population has been infected based on their estimate?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...dashboard.html

So I guess I am reading that right. Also these serology tests have a high false positive so if they are estimating 2.8% for MO then we aren't anywhere close to herd immunity. Heck they are showing NY Metro at 23.2%

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Based on that, when they did the tests, yes. So what, late April?

Round 2 was May 25-May 30

[Kiimo]

It's interesting that people in this thread tend to believe that the number of people with it is under-reported but the people that die with it is over-reported.


Here's an article that suggests otherwise:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...lassified-such

About 30% of COVID deaths may not be classified as such

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

So I guess I am reading that right. Also these serology tests have a high false positive so if they are estimating 2.8% for MO then we aren't anywhere close to herd immunity. Heck they are showing NY Metro at 23.2%

That one doesn't have that high of a false positive rate. I'm guessing it's a pretty solid ELISA.

With the addition of those not actually showing high enough levels of antibodies, we might be closer than we think.

[Donger]

Task force briefing scheduled for 5:00pm EDT

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

That one doesn't have that high of a false positive rate. I'm guessing it's a pretty solid ELISA.

With the addition of those not actually showing high enough levels of antibodies, we might be closer than we think.

I want to know what areas were sampled. Where were the majority of the tests done, etc?

Originally Posted by Donger

Task force briefing scheduled for 5:00pm EDT

I have it pulled up now.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

It's interesting that people in this thread tend to believe that the number of people with it is under-reported but the people that die with it is over-reported.


Here's an article that suggests otherwise:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...lassified-such

I'm a firm believer that the true case count for numbers infected would blow our minds.

I also won't dispute that the death count is also higher than reported.

We'll probably never truly know the numbers on either side.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Donger

Task force briefing scheduled for 5:00pm EDT

Briefing for what?

[TLO]

Median age of those who have died =78
Over half the deaths have come from individuals in nursing homes.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by TLO

Median age of those who have died =78
Over half the deaths have come from individuals in nursing homes.

And there are likely at least 10X the known number of cases, yet here we are.

[lewdog]

My 56 year old coworker is still in the hospital battling COVID PNA, going on day 10. He was given convalescent plasma over the weekend but continues to desat into the 70's, with light activity, even on oxygen. He has no prior health issues but simply waited too long at home before seeking help, IMO. Partly because his 80 year old mother, who is COVID positive, was refused medical care to the hospital 2 weeks ago when she called 911. They told her she "looked fine" and needed to manage at home because the hospitals were full. I convinced him to seek help but it was probably a few days too late.

A pulse oximeter is a MUST to have if you're positive. Even if you feel "decent," continue to check it multiple times per day while you are home.

My coworker's name in Joe and he's very Christian. A great man who is honestly struggling for his life right now. I've worked with him for 8 years and he would appreciate any prayers you could give him.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by lewdog

My 56 year old coworker is still in the hospital battling COVID PNA, going on day 10. He was given convalescent plasma over the weekend but continues to desat into the 70's, with light activity, even on oxygen. He has no prior health issues but simply waited too long at home before seeking help, IMO. Partly because his 80 year old mother, who is COVID positive, was refused medical care to the hospital 2 weeks ago when she called 911. They told her she "looked fine" and needed to manage at home because the hospitals were full. I convinced him to seek help but it was probably a few days too late.

A pulse oximeter is a MUST to have if you're positive. Even if you feel "decent," continue to check it multiple times per day while you are home.

My coworker's name in Joe and he's very Christian. A great man who is honestly struggling for his life right now. I've worked with him for 8 years and he would appreciate any prayers you could give him.

Very well said. Prayers that Joe gets better soon.

[O.city]

How you doin Lew?

[MahomesMagic]

CDC was at .26 then they moved it up to .65 with no new data after April.

I am going with Ioannidis at Stanford and Oxford CEBM where it will be below .26 overall, less than .1 if you are not in a nursing home.