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07-11-2020, 09:42 PM | #38461 |
www.nfl-forecast.com
Join Date: Sep 2000
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This is not correct. You can still have new cases when the R0 is below 1, but the number of new cases will decrease over time.
Let's say R0 is 0.8 and there are 100 people who have the disease. For simplicity we'll also assume that germination time for the disease is a week. 100 people will pass it to 80 the following week. The 80 people will pass it to 64 the following week. The 64 will pass it to 51 the following week and so on until there are no new cases several weeks down the road. In comparison if R0 is 1.2 then 100 people will pass it to 120 the following week. 120 people will pass it to 144 the following week. 144 people will pass it to 173 the following week and so on. The number of new cases will grow without bounds until you start running out of people to infect. |
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07-11-2020, 10:43 PM | #38462 | |
Just a li'l Evel
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Bald. Goatee. Jorts.
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07-12-2020, 01:28 AM | #38463 | |
Best Body On ChiefsPlanet
Join Date: Jan 2014
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07-12-2020, 07:04 AM | #38464 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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07-12-2020, 08:24 AM | #38465 |
Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Missouri
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07-12-2020, 08:24 AM | #38466 | |
Prestige Worldwide
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Spring Hill, KS
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So, how long does Phase 3 takes? Seems like the first 2 phases would take a couple months each, all things considered. |
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07-12-2020, 08:33 AM | #38467 | |
King Shit of **** Mountain
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Texarkana, Texas
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07-12-2020, 08:33 AM | #38468 |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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07-12-2020, 09:04 AM | #38469 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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So they’re now thinking 40% of infections are asymptomatic.
Makes me wonder, do we know if influenza ever has asymptomatic cases? Not trying to be a flu bro, or whatever, just curious. I’m hopeful this whole ordeal will open our eyes to a lot of infectious diseases and how we can more combat them |
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07-12-2020, 09:55 AM | #38470 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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15,300 new cases in Florida
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07-12-2020, 10:01 AM | #38471 |
MVP
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Location: Lenexa, KS
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07-12-2020, 10:04 AM | #38472 |
TACO SALAD
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Location: yes
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07-12-2020, 10:08 AM | #38473 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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07-12-2020, 10:15 AM | #38474 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Florida has a positivity of 20% New York is 1%
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07-12-2020, 10:22 AM | #38475 | |
Would an idiot do that?
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Location: Arizona
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