***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

Okay, now we are starting to see some serious case number increase:

1,629 yesterday
2,726 today

The question is just whether it's driven by people becoming ill or just better testing.

[FlintHillsChiefs]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

You realize that swine flu stat was the final score, and we’re in the first quarter of the Covid game? That Covid is highly contagious and its infection rate increases exponentially? It doesn’t go 1, 2, 3, 4 ... It goes 1, 2, 4, 16, 32 ...

The fear isn’t that it’s the Andromeda Strain and people will drop dead in the streets. It’s that infections will explode and overwhelm the health care system. We’re trying to slow the infection rate — “bend the curve.”

It's more like we're 2 minutes into the first qtr than being a 4th of the way through the game.

There's an animated timeline graph out there that shows why Covid-19 is more dangerous than SARS even though SARS has a higher mortality rate. The infection rate of Covid-19 due to the asymptomatic contagiousness, long incubation time, and long period of recovery that requires hospitalization for two weeks makes this especially insidious and dangerous for healthcare systems even if it's mortality rates are a "pedestrian" 1-3.5% compared to more lethal pathogens that tend to burn bright, but burn out quickly.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You aren't going to get Prevnar-13 (whose efficacy is dubious) or PPSV-23 unless you're immunocompromised if you're under 65.

From the comments that article might be fake. I deleted my post. I’m going to be more careful and not post any more linked in articles w/o confirming.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

The question is just whether it's driven by people becoming ill or just better testing.

Both, I would imagine.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Calling it like I see it. Watching the run on the grocery stores this week was super telling.

That happens before every snow storm too

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The CDC does not recommend that adults without comorbidities or immune suppression get pneumonia vaccinations- they are part of regular childhood vaccination protocols.

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/stat...787006466?s=21

What are your thoughts on this?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by SupDock

What are you basing this on?
This is the 2 month mmwr from the CDC about 2 months in H1N1


https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmw...827a4.htmApril 2009, CDC reported the first two cases in the United States of human infection with a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus (1). As of July 6, a total of 122 countries had reported 94,512 cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, 429 of which were fatal; in the United States, a total of 33,902 cases were reported, 170 of which were*fatal."


Another piece of data
CDC estimates that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

Later on we determine that it killed a lot more people than we thought.

That seems to be the current message making the rounds. First this was just the flu. Now it’s less bad than the swine flu. When CV blows past swine flu it will be something else.

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by SupDock

What are you basing this on?
This is the 2 month mmwr from the CDC about 2 months in H1N1


https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmw...827a4.htmApril 2009, CDC reported the first two cases in the United States of human infection with a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus (1). As of July 6, a total of 122 countries had reported 94,512 cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, 429 of which were fatal; in the United States, a total of 33,902 cases were reported, 170 of which were*fatal."


Another piece of data
CDC estimates that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

Later on we determine that it killed a lot more people than we thought.

Im basing it on the fact that, fatality wise, the swine flu affected everyone and the corona virus is affecting only the elderly.

[Kiimo]

https://innovationorigins.com/dutch-...irus-antibody/

Dutch researchers find Corona virus antibody



The summary talks about an antibody against SARS2, the corona virus. The antibody may help detect and prevent this form of corona infection. This would therefore make the active antibody a world premiere.

The antibody still has to be tested on human beings and this will take a few months. .....

“We are now trying to get a pharmaceutical company on board -that’s looking good, by the way – which can mass-produce the antibody as a medicine on a large scale. …This is the very first antibody that we know of that will block the infection

And there is a good chance that this will also become a medicine that reaches the market. If this is taken by a patient, then it is expected that the infection can be stopped in that patient. So, the patient will have a chance of recovery.”

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by sedated

And yet 3 major European countries are on lockdown having closed everything but grocery stores and pharmacies, after it got much worse than here.

Did these three countries ban travel to and from China?

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by Donger

H1N1 R0 was 1.4 to 1.6. This is higher based on the data we have so far, around 2.2

The mortality rate was also well less than 1%. This bug is around 3% so far.

The precautions being taken based on those numbers aren't an over-reaction.

Is that mortality rate world wide or just here in America?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

That happens before every snow storm too

Remember how long it took for Springfield to get back online after the 2007 ice storm?

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I think I will listen to the people in charge of these things instead.

That’s your prerogative. But the “experts” have been wrong many times through out history. I see no harm in questioning them. In fact, I believe it to be quite healthy to throw out counter ideas. That is actually how we learn new things, by questioning the official line.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/stat...787006466?s=21

What are your thoughts on this?

Remdesevir is the best shot. There is thought that IL-6 contributes to mortality in sepsis. Tocilizumab's MOA is inhibition of IL-6, but as a biologic it is going to be far too difficult to scale production and would only help sequelae. Chloroquine and Plaquenil have been used in limited cases, and are likely working by reduction of inflammatory response.

The protease inhibitors could work if the viral protease is similar to HIV's, but all work has been in vitro at this point. Much different than trying in humans.

[FlintHillsChiefs]

Originally Posted by Raiderhader

Is that mortality rate world wide or just here in America?

Resolved cases rates are hovering around 6% worldwide. That's deaths divided by recoveries. Overall death rates were around 3.5%, but thats problematic because we have a divisor issue. There's no way to tell how many people have it currently. The issue is the load placed on the healthcare system and the secondary and preventable deaths that will cause that wouldn't be an issue in normal circumstances. America has about 2.8 beds per thousand people, and not all of those beds are in hospitals equipped to handle novel and high contagious diseases like Covid-19. Last I checked there are about 200 Trauma I hospitals in the US, and another 200 Trauma II hospitals. These are the hospitals that will be bearing the brunt of the cases. Here's an issue, though - those beds are already running at about 40-60% capacity. So we've got room for maybe 300-500k cases nationwide before shit hits the fan.