***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by TLO

I'm not sure I understand your meaning?

November is a little bit important this year in this country, so I was a touch surprised they'd go that far out at the beginning of July, that's all.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[loochy]

Originally Posted by TLO

I'm not sure I understand your meaning?

What do you think will happen in November?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Bowser

November is a little bit important this year in this country, so I was a touch surprised they'd go that far out at the beginning of July, that's all.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Originally Posted by loochy

What do you think will happen in November?

Ok I gotcha

[Pablo]

I only get my information from the CPDC thread now. This was useful but all the geniouses have obviously moved on.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Ok I gotcha

Gonna get close to 1,000 deaths today. CA hit triple digits. Most likely some backlog with them as well but it pushed the total for the day.

[Stro39]

Originally Posted by O.city

So with deaths not going up with cases, it seems there's something we've missed. I think there were way way more cases back in Feb/March/April than we caught, so deaths were higher. The cases we're catching now are milder and there are less of them. We know how to better deal with this now as well.

That's my theory.

Everyone thinks deaths are 2 weeks behind cases because that's how it looked the first time. But we were way behind on the cases the last time and they seemed to spike a few weeks before deaths but actually, it was way before and they were way higher.

One reason CFR isn't the same as what it was earlier on is because earlier on there were many more older people/people with co-morbidities infected compared to now. Obviously this latter group is much more susceptible to succumb to the virus. Infections in recent months have been fueled by people going to bars etc, usually this demographic skews a lot younger.

The TWiV people (This Week in Virology - world leading experts in this field) think the CFR could well end up around 1%, but they also think its still an extremely dangerous virus.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Here you go Pete, maybe these won't upset your delicate respiratory system. Of course you'll still spread covid if you have it. But who cares, right? It's not real anyway. Or if it is it's not that bad.

You....uhhhh...got a link to those?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by HUMONGOUS BONEREATER

You....uhhhh...got a link to those?

Just google lemon party, tubgirl or goatse with safe search off. Make sure you're at work and your boss is standing behind you.

[tyecopeland]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

If droplet is the primary means of spread (and I realize this isn't settled), I've wondered how much you need to wear it over your nose. Shouting, singing, talking loud, breathing hard (say from gym activity) all seem to be a problem and obviously coughing.

But for someone who is infected but is asymptomatic, does breathing through your nose present much of a risk of infecting other people? If we could get people to just wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, would that be almost as good as wearing it over both mouth and nose?

It would certainly be more comfortable.

Well around where I live under the nose is the most common way of masks being worn. Even by employees mandated to wear a mask, like me now.

[tyecopeland]

Originally Posted by HUMONGOUS BONEREATER

You....uhhhh...got a link to those?

Don't know what harm you want to do with the info but just search etsy for mesh masks.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by tyecopeland

Well around where I live under the nose is the most common way of masks being worn. Even by employees mandated to wear a mask, like me now.

Well here's hoping it's still effective.

[TLO]

Potential good news

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...iaa630/5842185

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Potential good news

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...iaa630/5842185

That's great. We are starting to see more and more methods of reducing mortality which hopefully keeps the death count from rising very much with this latest spike in cases.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by tyecopeland

Don't know what harm you want to do with the info but just search etsy for mesh masks.

I'm busy with that lemon party site right now but thanks!

[suzzer99]

If you’re thinking new cases in the US will not come with deaths and life altering severe disease, get out of the aggregated data and look specifically where the cases are taking off

A 10x increase in hospitalization, ICU admits, and ventilators use is a very bad sign. pic.twitter.com/IoBzml0OLR

— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) July 7, 2020

Well at least this means we should probably have a good idea in two weeks if deaths really are lower this time around - due to younger/less at-risk demographics. When NYC had a big spike like this, deaths started spiking about 2 weeks later. But a spike in ventilator usage is not a good sign for that.