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https://theathletic.com/2238978/2020...nt-spotlights/
Broncos-Chiefs guide: Two quarterbacks, two very different spotlights
By Nick Kosmider and Nate Taylor
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You would be hard-pressed to find a division rivalry more lopsided than this one in recent years.
The Broncos have lost 10 straight games to the Chiefs, dating back to Nov. 15, 2015. The average margin of victory for Kansas City in those one-sided contests: 13.7 points.
And you’d have to go back nine years, to Nov. 13, 2011, to find the last time Denver won a game in this series without Peyton Manning at quarterback.
The good news for the Broncos? They’ll actually have a quarterback available for the game. That, of course, is more than they could say for last week’s humiliating episode that left Denver without a regular QB during their 31-3 loss to the Saints, a nearly unprecedented situation that occurred as a result of a COVID-19 protocol breach.
The Broncos have insisted they are ready and eager to turn the page. Waiting on the next one? MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes and the 10-1 Chiefs, who are trying to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers for that all-important No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Let’s take a look at how the Sunday night matchup breaks down, with help from The Athletic’s beat writers for the two rivals:
Key matchups
Broncos reporter Nick Kosmider: The final five games of the season for the Broncos are all about evaluating quarterback Drew Lock. He has not played in more than six consecutive games at any point during his career, so it’s imperative that Sunday’s matchup with the Chiefs is the first of five straight starts to end the season for the second-year QB. That’s first and foremost.
Next, can Lock build off some of the positives he put together against the Dolphins two weeks ago? He completed 18 of his final 24 pass attempts in that 20-13 win and limited his mistakes to one early interception. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur got Lock into a good rhythm, mixing in some quick slants with rub concepts that gave Lock open targets over the middle. Sprinkle in a productive run game and the Broncos showed they don’t have to be perfect to create a competent offensive attack.
If Lock has any chance of rediscovering that formula after missing a week of action, he must do a better job against Kansas City’s pressure. In two matchups against the Chiefs in his brief career, Lock has been sacked five times and has thrown three interceptions. What he doesn’t have against his hometown team? A single touchdown pass.
The problem has been compounding mistakes. Take a sequence late in the second quarter of the teams’ first meeting this season on Oct. 25. The Broncos, trailing 24-9, had a chance to move within one score as they took over at their own 15-yard line with 2:23 left in the second quarter. Lock was sacked twice on the drive and was also flagged for intentional grounding, a trio of negative plays that torpedoed any hopes of a productive two-minute drive.
The Broncos won’t have a prayer Sunday night if Lock can’t take care of the ball and process the pressure.
Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor: As strange as last week’s game was for the Broncos, the biggest aspect of their loss to the Saints that is transferable to rematch with the Chiefs to me is their defense, especially their pass rush. Of course, everything with the defending champions starts with Patrick Mahomes, the frontrunner to win the NFL’s MVP award this season. The best way for the Broncos to limit Mahomes’ success is to hit him several times, which they did last month, sacking him three times.
“We had a miscue at one point on the offensive line,” Mahomes said after that game. “We didn’t get the right protection, where we kind of put (backup tight end Nick) Keizer in a bad situation being one-on-one with one of their best pass rushers (linebacker Malik Reed). There’s just different things that we’ve got to be better at.
One of the few weaknesses for the Chiefs’ potent offense is the inconsistency of their offensive line. The Chiefs will be without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) and left tackle Eric Fisher struggled at times in last week’s victory over the Buccaneers.
Without facing pressure, Mahomes and the Chiefs will score 30 or more points with ease. The Broncos, though, appear to have the talent — such as Bradley Chubb, Dre’Mont Jones and Reed — to frustrate Mahomes. Fans shouldn’t forget that the Chiefs’ offense wasn’t at its best in the first meeting. The Broncos’ four turnovers were the biggest issue.
Rookie watch
Kosmider: Cornerback Michael Ojemudia, the 2020 third-round pick out of Iowa, endured a curious demotion last month. Ojemudia had played roughly 90 percent of the snaps for the Denver defense through the first eight games of the season. Included in that batch were a number of hair-pulling moments you’d expect for a rookie with no preseason snaps under his belt, like his forgettable Week 2 performance in Pittsburgh when he gave up two long touchdown passes and dropped a would-be interception. But he also had a number of encouraging plays, such as his end zone deflection against the Jets in Week 4 and a forced fumble against the Patriots in Week 6, that signaled he could grow into an important piece for the Broncos — this season and beyond.
So it was certainly an interesting development when Ojemudia wasn’t on the field for a single defensive snap in two straight games — a loss to the Raiders and a win over the Dolphins — last month. It may have extended to three in a row had starter Bryce Callahan not gone down with a foot injury in the second half of Sunday’s loss to the Saints.
In talking about Ojemudia’s performance two days later — which included three tackles and one pass defensed — Broncos coach Vic Fangio hinted at the issue that had kept the rookie off the field the two weeks prior.
“I thought he tackled better in that game,” Fangio said of Ojemudia’s pinch-hit effort against the Saints. “He had been struggling tackling in his last action that he had had out there. I thought he did tackle better in that game.”
Ojemudia is being pressed back into a significant role. Callahan landed on injured reserve this week, meaning the Broncos will lean on the rookie as he plays opposite veteran A.J. Bouye. It’s clear the dynamic duo of Mahomes and Hill will provide a massive challenge for Ojemudia, who is trying to use these final five weeks as a launching pad toward a potential starting role in 2021.
Taylor: I’ll match Ojemudia with another cornerback, this one being L’Jarius Sneed, who the Chiefs selected in the fourth round. Sneed didn’t play in the first meeting. He missed six games this season after suffering a fractured right collarbone in September during the Chiefs’ win over the Ravens.
When healthy, Sneed has been one of the biggest surprises for the Chiefs’ defense, a unit that began the second week of the season without its two best cornerbacks: Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward. Sneed began his career with an interception in his first two games. He almost had a third interception against the Ravens as he sustained his injury while diving for the ball.
Sneed made his return two weeks ago, as the Chiefs rallied for a comeback victory over the Raiders. With Breeland and Ward also returning to their starting roles, Sneed has switched to being the slot cornerback for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. In five games, Sneed has yet to surrender a touchdown in coverage.
“Honestly, I started preparing before they even told me,” Sneed said of playing the slot. “I was just preparing myself, but it’s totally different for me than sitting at home trying to read a book than actually going out there and doing it. Going out there, that’s how I learn faster. You always can learn.”
Injury report
Kosmider: The Broncos will sorely miss Callahan, who has been by far the team’s best cornerback this season. With Ojemudia likely taking his place on the outside, look for undrafted rookie Essang Bassey, who recorded his first career interception in last week’s loss to the Saints, to spend a lot of time covering the slot. Two rookies on the field for most of the defensive snaps can be a dangerous blueprint against a guy like Mahomes, and the Broncos will need a big game from their veterans in the secondary — Bouye and safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson — in order to ease some of the burdens on those two players.
In positive injury news for the Broncos, starting defensive end Shelby Harris has a good chance to suit for Denver after missing the last four weeks on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
That should be good news for a Denver defense that has been awful against the run during his absence. Since Harris has been out of the lineup, the Broncos have given up 145 rushing yards per game and nine touchdowns on the ground. Both marks are the worst in the NFL during that span.
Part of that major dropoff in the run game can also be attributed to the absence of defensive tackle Mike Purcell, who suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in the first matchup against the Chiefs and is out for the season. Still, Harris’ presence, even if his snap count is limited as he regains his conditioning, should be a boost for a defense that gave up more points over the last four games (115) than all but three teams.
Taylor: This stretch of the season is perhaps the healthiest the Chiefs have been since opening night. Beyond Schwartz’s absence, the Chiefs will likely be without linebacker Dorian O’Daniel, a three-year veteran who is known for his production on special teams. O’Daniel, who leads the Chiefs’ special teams unit in tackles, sustained a high-ankle sprain last week and hasn’t participated in practice this week.
“He was playing on a Pro Bowl level this year,” Dave Toub, the Chiefs’ special teams coordinator, said Thursday of O’Daniel. “We’re going to miss him.”
Breeland (stomach illness) and rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) didn’t participate in Thursday’s practice. If Edwards-Helaire misses his first game of the season Sunday night, he’ll be replaced by veteran running back Le’Veon Bell, who made his Chiefs debut against the Broncos. The Chiefs also don’t have any players on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Watch out for …
Kosmider: Outside of the quarterbacks who weren’t eligible to play, there was probably no position group for the Broncos more frustrated on Sunday than the wide receivers. With all due respect to Kendall Hinton, the practice squad wide receiver who stepped valiantly into that unenviable role, players like Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick never had a chance to get involved in the game plan.
I’m particularly interested to see how Jeudy bounces back. The rookie appeared to have a good shot at a 1,000-yard season before he and all the team’s receivers were shut out of the catch department against the Saints. The Chiefs bottled him up well in the first meeting, limiting him to just 20 yards on two catches, both season-lows if you take away last week’s no-quarterback nonsense. Jeudy responded to that rough day against Kansas City by averaging five catches and 88 yards over his next three games.
The Broncos would love to see Jeudy and Lock find some real rhythm over the final five games of this season, and that would mean finally connecting on a deep ball. That, to this point, has been an elusive pursuit for that pairing.
Taylor: The Chiefs are known for their creative misdirection plays, especially when they enter the red zone. In the first meeting against the Broncos, the Chiefs didn’t run many such plays, perhaps because of the snowy conditions in Denver. The temperature will be cold Sunday night, but snow is not expected. Coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will likely have a few new plays for the Broncos.
We should also expect that star tight end Travis Kelce will generate more production Sunday night than he did in the Chiefs’ win over the Broncos in late October. In that game, Kelce recorded just three receptions for 31 yards, both of which were season lows. Since then, Kelce has had at least eight receptions and 80 receiving yards in the Chiefs’ past four games, all of which were victories.
Predictions
Kosmider: Lock is going to really want to make a good impression. Not only is he coming off the embarrassment of last week and not being able to play, but he’s also coming home. The question is whether the 24-year-old can keep all that in check and take what’s out there. The Broncos won’t have a chance of breaking the streak if their quarterback doesn’t play mistake-free football. That’s probably going to be too big of an ask. Chiefs, 31-17.
Taylor: After last week’s issues, the Broncos should have plenty of motivation to perform well in front of a national TV audience. The Chiefs, though, have more talent. They are also chasing the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers for the AFC’s top playoff seed to earn home-field advantage and a first-round bye. Chiefs, 31-23.
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