Let's talk about the 49ers (Super Bowl Edition)

[TLO]

Well Chiefs vs Packers is what I had hoped for, but that's not happening.

Let's talk about Chiefs vs 49ers here.

[Gravedigger]

Originally Posted by All22

The storylines for this game are so weird. The game tape shows something totally different IMO.

On this forum, y'all tend towards more player-centric comparisons than any other forum (i.e. who has the best QB, best "weapons" etc) and you overrate your system players way too much.

Anything less than "Mahomes is the GOAT" is shouted down.

Trust me, after dealing with Patriots trolls for a few years, you 9ers trolls are a cakewalk by comparison. I'm sure Jimmy G is happy banging porn stars, but he's nothing more than a Patriots cast off, and this forum knows a Patriots cast off when we see them. Even if the 9ers win, it'll be in spite of him, just like Joe Flacco. I'm actually surprised that the mods didn't shut down new account registrations leading up to the Super Bowl.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by All22

When the 49ers win, the ban hammer is going to come out so fast here.

Y'all can't even take any level of calm rational discussion at all without resorting to childish name calling.

What the **** are you talking about?

Any "calm, rational discussion" from 49ers fans has been "we're gonna run all over your #26 ranked run defense."

Then Chiefs fan goes "yeah, that's what Titans fans and the media said before the championship game."

49ers fan : "but we're so physical."

Chief fan : "your backs are more physical than Henry?"

49ers fan : "yeah. It's different."

Chiefs fan : "how is it different?"

49ers fan : "because we've had a tougher schedule."

Chiefs fan : "the Niners had the 11th hardest strength of schedule, the Chiefs 15th...with an opponent's win percentage differential of .3%. Oh, and from week 11, the Chiefs have had the best defense in the league."

49ers fan : "way to pick and choose numbers that suit your narrative."

Chiefs fan : "what?"

49ers fan : 'we're gonna beat you. Chiefs are a finesse team. 49ers are gonna win."

And it's not just here with the 49er trolls.

Check out these comments from YouTube :



^this dipshit obviously doesn't realize that the Chiefs beat the Ravens and Patriots this year.



^and this dumbass...obviously doesn't know we're a "system team".




Someone should tell him able and Abel are two different words.

So, as soon as you find me a 49ers fan capable of actually having a "calm, rational discussion" about this year's Super Bowl, I'm totally capable. As of right now, the closest we've found is Hern, who has stated that if the 49ers don't stop Mahomes (spoiler : they won't) then the 49ers will lose.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by All22

The storylines for this game are so weird. The game tape shows something totally different IMO.

On this forum, y'all tend towards more player-centric comparisons than any other forum (i.e. who has the best QB, best "weapons" etc) and you overrate your system players way too much.

Anything less than "Mahomes is the GOAT" is shouted down.

"System" players?

Dude, we've had the same system with basically the same players for years.

The difference is Mahomes.

You make a lot of assumptions.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So is Spags a wild-card here?

My feeling on Spagnolo was made pretty clear. I was ultimately convinced on the hire by the quality of assistants we were able to get to hitch their wagon to him (smart follows smart), but ultimately felt like his reputation was overblown.

But he's come up with unique gameplans twice already in the post-season and in the process has really made things difficult for the opposition. And those two squads couldn't be much more different on offense. Spags had something for 'em both.

It's possible that there's something to what he was able to do to NE in the SB that year. We saw a 'light' version of it the last 2 weeks. So does he have another ace up his sleeve? Is he really a guy who can individually gameplan for opponents?

Because man - if he's capable of doing even 80% of the individualized attacks that Reid can do, that's a potentially huge advantage. That's not to say he'll be holding SF to 13, but if he can hold them to 24 that has to put us in the driver's seat.

I think that Houston is the closest comparison of what we’ve seen to SF’s offense. Top 10 rushing team, good QB, good weapons, very good TE (Fells was 3rd in TD’s among TE’s) and a pretty good, albeit not great (still overrated) offensive mind in Bill O’Brien.

I saw a stat yesterday that we are the best 2nd quarter team in the league. IIRC we have an incredibly small margin of time being behind. I give the offense much credit, but Spags is just as paramount.

The entire 1st quarter is like a case study for him. He’s sticking with his original plan, not veering too far off of his gameplan. Then in the 2nd quarter he adjusts and just turns everything around.

The Texans came out and embarrassed us in the opening drive and everything looked like a disaster, but Spags and this defense shut down that offense in 8 of the their last 9 drives. The adjustments that Spags makes are incredible and that comes from his excellent positional hires.

This will be a different animal though. Rat Jr is a terrific play designer. It will undoubtedly be his biggest challenge to date.

If I had to choose, the more favorable matchup is Spags vs Rat Jr than Andy vs Saleh

[wachashi]

Damien Williams is going to have a big game catching the football. Mark it down - he'll be guarded one-on-one by a LB or SS in the flat, and the Niners are going to have to put their best coverage LB on Kelce. Kelce's going to command so much attention in the middle of the field that Williams will be there in the flat for easy 7 yard gains - more if he makes a man miss like he often does. These throws don't require protection to hold up for more than a couple seconds. Easy money.

[Hammock Parties]

[JohnnyHammersticks]

Super Bowl LIV spoiler alert:

Spoiler!

CHIEFS WIN!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theor...ore-projection

[Mecca]

I've seen quite a bit of the 49ers this year honestly......here's what I think when I watch them.

Their defense while being good and having really good front 4 talent has some holes in it. Playing Seattle cover 3 press bail as your scheme kind of opens you up to getting beat because well so many teams run this scheme now it's not something that isn't seen all the time.

The biggest stuff I saw with it is they struggle bad in the secondary with a couple of things. Speed, their secondary isn't very fast and Shermans whole game is vet smarts and playing his 1 spot of the field. If you get vertical with them you take a way a ton of what they're trying to do. The Saints did this really well over and over, especially with Cook early in that game.

Then you factor in what really set the game off for them, Michael Thomas knows how to find holes in the zone. If you have speed+guys that know how to find the zone hole, they literally can not stop it.

Basically their entire defensive game is "This line is going to make you throw the ball fast and we're gonna set in this zone and jump your routes".

Even in the Packers game, the pick Rodgers threw at the end of the 1st half, the CB Mosely is literally squatting between 2 receivers and gets a pick doing it. If you take those chances against Mahomes you are going to give up 70 yard completions, the question is will they back out of playing this way or will they still take those chances?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by wachashi

Damien Williams is going to have a big game catching the football. Mark it down - he'll be guarded one-on-one by a LB or SS in the flat, and the Niners are going to have to put their best coverage LB on Kelce. Kelce's going to command so much attention in the middle of the field that Williams will be there in the flat for easy 7 yard gains - more if he makes a man miss like he often does. These throws don't require protection to hold up for more than a couple seconds. Easy money.

This is one of those times when it would be nice to still have Hunt around, the LBs on the Niners are fast but small...Kwon Alexander is a little dude by NFL LB standards but he can run.

Matter of fact Kelce is significantly bigger than all of their LBs so he may have a good mismatch there.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by All22

The storylines for this game are so weird. The game tape shows something totally different IMO.

On this forum, y'all tend towards more player-centric comparisons than any other forum (i.e. who has the best QB, best "weapons" etc) and you overrate your system players way too much.

Anything less than "Mahomes is the GOAT" is shouted down.

Here's the thing.

Some of us have been on this forum for 20 years and been fans for 30, 40, or even 50 years.

ALL WE'VE EVER SEEN IS SYSTEM PLAYERS. Especially at QB.

What you're seeing is a radical paradigm shift, caused by the fact that we've watched individual QB's like Elway, Brady, Rodgers, etc. win Super Bowls by elevating everybody around them.

This is the first time since LEN DAWSON the Chiefs have actually had a QB that could do that. You just happen to have arrived right in the middle of a seismic shift in the KC fanbase.

[smithandrew051]

Chiefs just need to protect the ball and we’ll be fine.

Every loss over the last 2 seasons has been the result of dumb errors on our part. Turnovers have been the primary issue in most of them.

Going back to last season:

Rams: 5 turnovers (I think 2 were for TDs)
Seattle: 2 lost fumbles by receivers
Patriots (regular season): 2 interceptions

This year:

Colts: McCoy fumble
Texans: Mahomes strip sack at the end of the half
Packers: McCoy fumble
Titans: Williams fumble for TD

Just take care of the ball and we’ll be fine.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I've seen quite a bit of the 49ers this year honestly......here's what I think when I watch them.

Their defense while being good and having really good front 4 talent has some holes in it. Playing Seattle cover 3 press bail as your scheme kind of opens you up to getting beat because well so many teams run this scheme now it's not something that isn't seen all the time.

The biggest stuff I saw with it is they struggle bad in the secondary with a couple of things. Speed, their secondary isn't very fast and Shermans whole game is vet smarts and playing his 1 spot of the field. If you get vertical with them you take a way a ton of what they're trying to do. The Saints did this really well over and over, especially with Cook early in that game.

Then you factor in what really set the game off for them, Michael Thomas knows how to find holes in the zone. If you have speed+guys that know how to find the zone hole, they literally can not stop it.

Basically their entire defensive game is "This line is going to make you throw the ball fast and we're gonna set in this zone and jump your routes".

Even in the Packers game, the pick Rodgers threw at the end of the 1st half, the CB Mosely is literally squatting between 2 receivers and gets a pick doing it. If you take those chances against Mahomes you are going to give up 70 yard completions, the question is will they back out of playing this way or will they still take those chances?

Excellent analysis.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by All22

The storylines for this game are so weird. The game tape shows something totally different IMO.

On this forum, y'all tend towards more player-centric comparisons than any other forum (i.e. who has the best QB, best "weapons" etc) and you overrate your system players way too much.

Anything less than "Mahomes is the GOAT" is shouted down.

It's not that anything less than "Mahomes is the GOAT" is shouted down. It's that there is no patience and little tolerance for opposing fans who come in confident and talking the same smack we've heard for the past month.

Ever since the Texans won their opening round game, it's been the same storylines tossed out by opposing fans.

Originally Posted by All22

Most of the secondary didn't play in the Atlanta game.

But you could argue the most talented group of "Weapons" we faced this year was the OBJ, Landry, and Chubb or Gurley, Kupp, Woods, and Cooks or Kamara, Cook, Thomas, Hill, Ginn. Or Cook, Diggs, Thelien etc

I don't see the Chiefs "weapons" as better than most of those. Your running game kinda sucks and our DLine will be happy just pinning their ears back all game knowing that they're really only looking for screens but not run plays.

If you want to talk about how your D is going to play against Mahomes and the Chiefs, the pass D is first and foremost. KC isn't going to run it to try and "establish" something just to be stubborn. It's going to be a complement and secondary or even tertiary part of the gameplan.

Your DL has to worry about, in order:

1) Defeating one of the best pass-blocking OL in football, with top-notch bookend pass protectors
2) Screen/misdirection game (Reid is going to use motion and misdirection just like Shanahan to slow the DL down and try to exploit them if they get too aggressive)
3) Mahomes' containment. This pairs with (1). The 49ers have to rush Mahomes hard so he doesn't have time to pick apart the zone D. But they also have to keep containment on Mahomes, and they have to stay disciplined so they don't get crushed by (2).
4) Defend the run game

And to complicate matters, the player who your fans cite as the key factor in making your pass rush effective is a completely one-dimensional pass rush specialist who can be exploited pretty easily if he plays on early downs.

So what is Saleh going to do? Is he going to play Ford - who is gimpy as usual - on early downs he normally wouldn't (Because really, every down is a passing down for KC)? Is he going to use him as normal, in traditional passing downs?

If Ford plays on early downs, you're going to likely be facing 11 personnel (goodbye to one LB, hello to K'Juan Williams). KC will audible into runs if it can isolate Ford.

I mean, a very simple action that will become tough to defend in this situation is a 3x1 alignment that motions into a 2x2 alignment:

Watkins OL Kelce Hill Robinson
Williams/Mahomes

In that alignment, facing a nickel D with Ford on the field at LE, you're going to motion Hill to the left side and be set up to run zone to the opposite side.

The slot corner - presumably K'Juan Willliams, right? - is likely going to motion with hill in that alignment. If he doesn't, KC will throw the ball and have Watkins and Hill isolated on one side against just one CB (good luck!). If the corner follows Hill, it sets KC up nicely to run outside zone to the outside. Kelce will crackback Ford. Schwartz pulls to the second level and gets into the LB. Zone blocking the rest of the way. They probably leave Bosa unblocked and force him to account for Mahomes (if he doesn't/crashes down the line aggressively, KC will run a true zone read and hurt them that way).

Holding that type of run play down is going to rely on Sherman beating a 1x1 block from a good blocking WR in Demarcus Robinson, one of the LB's getting around Schwartz coming to the second level, or Armstead shooting in quickly enough to blow the play up in the backfield.

Ford on early downs gives a real schematic advantage to a creative offense with a smart QB who can change the play at the line based on defensive reactions. Even to a guy who watches from his couch.

[Andoverer]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

New England states = Sore Losers

[Mecca]

The other thing I forgot to throw in, the Saints didn't do this because Brees doesn't really move.

But QB's that can move, Wilson, Murray and then the Rams showed them a moving pocket and it completely ****ed with their line like no tomorrow. This isn't an all time defense, it's talented but it can be had and other teams have exposed that.