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06-17-2020, 07:57 AM | #35191 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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06-17-2020, 08:04 AM | #35192 |
Kind of a mod
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
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Posts: 52,054
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06-17-2020, 08:05 AM | #35193 |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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No. But to reduce mortality by 1/3, no one would need to be treated with corticosteroids in the ICU prior to this. Given that they are commonly used, although less so in certain cases applicable to COVID, don't expect a full 1/3 decrease in mortality like some were claiming
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Posts: 74,860
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06-17-2020, 08:05 AM | #35194 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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That being said, is it really more contagious? The flu season of 2018-2019 (October 18- March 19?) had 35.5 million people with the flu according to the CDC. So that's just under 6 million people a month. Now I understand that is an estimate on the part of the CDC but considering we are on pace right now in this country for roughly 12 million cases in a 6 month time frame can we say the flu is more contagious? But wait, there's more! The CDC estimates the people who have the flu so why not estimate how many people really have Covid? Let's say it's 3 times the amount of known cases. That puts us at roughly 7.5 million cases over the last 3.5 months with gets you roughly 2.1 million cases a month. So just playing with numbers, can we say the flu is more contagious? IMO you could make the argument. So on a more hopeful and literal note, as we develop more treatments for Covid and reduce the mortality rate we can see this comin in line with the flu, let's hope anyway. |
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Posts: 128,432
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06-17-2020, 08:11 AM | #35195 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Influenza has an R0 of ~2.8 and that's with virtually no mitigation efforts.
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Posts: 182,467
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06-17-2020, 08:23 AM | #35196 | |
Time Keeps On Slipping
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Overland Park
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Here comes a post from pete asking me where exactly he compared the flu to SARS 2. You can't make this shit up. |
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Posts: 27,294
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06-17-2020, 08:27 AM | #35197 |
Hockey Town
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
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I seriously hope Pete is being purposely obtuse and isn't missing a chromosome.
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Posts: 111,280
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06-17-2020, 08:29 AM | #35198 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Apparently you did not read the post ....it's rather obvious
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Posts: 128,432
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06-17-2020, 08:29 AM | #35199 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Posts: 128,432
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06-17-2020, 08:32 AM | #35200 | |
Time Keeps On Slipping
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Overland Park
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Of course I read your post. In it, you asked:
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What did I miss? |
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06-17-2020, 08:34 AM | #35201 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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We know what the CDC said about how many flu cases there were. We know how many known cases of Covid there are. I even increased the number of Covid cased by a factor of 3. Get the **** out of here. And the entire point of the post which you grossly missed was how you can play with the numbers. Since I was replying to a post about how you can play with the numbers. |
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Posts: 128,432
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06-17-2020, 08:39 AM | #35202 | |
Time Keeps On Slipping
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Overland Park
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Quote:
I question the validity of taking those numbers and comparing them in a vacuum. I literally get dizzy when I try to think how anyone can arrive to the conclusion that the flu is more contagious than SARS 2 given everything that has transpired in the entire world since 12/2019. But I only wanted to bring to your attention that it may be somewhat asinine to compare the flu to SARS 2 when the mitigation efforts for one are not even close to the other. Hence my sarcastic post about that quarantine and lock downs for the 2018 - 2019 flu season. |
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06-17-2020, 08:40 AM | #35203 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2001
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06-17-2020, 08:42 AM | #35204 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Posts: 128,432
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06-17-2020, 08:43 AM | #35205 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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