***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bowser]

And someone feel free to correct me or flame me, but in relation to how long this crud has been on our shores.....was there a story out a few weeks back about how some group took a reading of cell phones and their tracking in Wuhan in early October '19 and found that there was basically no cell phone traffic in a two block radius around the Wuhan lab? If so, wouldn't that be proof that China could well have known about this in September of last year, if not earlier?

*ducks conspiracy tomatoes being thrown*

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Yea I agree with all of your post, but my point is that people in this very thread shit on others who have questioned some of the info being passed as "fact" and then it turns out, its not a "fact" and its all been theory that may be 100% wrong.

I had several people jump on me about questioning asymptomatic spread and the Sweden study that found that children are not good vectors for spreading covid.

There is a metric shit ton of conflicting info on this stuff so to bash people who question some things makes zero sense as we are once again seeing.

Yeah, that's most of this thread... people entrenching themselves into an opinion then opinion spamming that opinion, while shitting on people who are entrenched in a different opinion.

I thought eDave's "bet people who thought this would get killed off by summer feel pretty stupid right now" was especially amusing just for that point... you can't have an opinion/thought/theory these days without being pigeonholed into having a side, and how dare you if your opinion changes based on changing facts/information/theories.

It's hard to have normal conversations with some people because they don't know what to do with someone who's on the fence about something or basically wants to think out loud on the issue while not picking sides.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, that's most of this thread... people entrenching themselves into an opinion then opinion spamming that opinion, while shitting on people who are entrenched in a different opinion.

I thought eDave's "bet people who thought this would get killed off by summer feel pretty stupid right now" was especially amusing just for that point... you can't have an opinion/thought/theory these days without being pigeonholed into having a side, and how dare you if your opinion changes based on changing facts/information/theories.

It's hard to have normal conversations with some people because they don't know what to do with someone who's on the fence about something or basically wants to think out loud on the issue while not picking sides.

Bet you're one of those right reeruns who were dumb enough to have an optimistic view of humanity. . . . Ha on you!!!

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by O.city

Asymptomatic coronavirus patients aren't spreading new infections, WHO says https://t.co/ZukEfrB7sC

— CNBC (@CNBC) June 8, 2020

Well, I'd like to see the research behind this.

If you read a story about this, it isn’t nearly the reversal it seems. She strongly distinguishes between truly asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, and pre symptomatic. It is only the first group that they are claiming are rare to transmit. Pre-symptomatic individuals are still thought to be important in disease transmission. It doesn’t change policy with respect to assuming anyone you encounter can be infectious or even yourself. The big policy difference this makes is we don’t need to contact trace asymptomatic individuals.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's almost like global mitigation efforts worked.

No, actually the global mitigation didn't work very well, which is a good thing.

It caused there to be a big increase in herd immunity which kept the total numbers down.

With good mitigation, there is low herd immunity. Without herd immunity every city would have been another NYC.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

No, actually the global mitigation didn't work very well, which is a good thing.

It caused there to be a big increase in herd immunity which kept the total numbers down.

With good mitigation, there is low herd immunity. Without herd immunity every city would have been another NYC.

There is no evidence we are any where close to herd immunity.

[lewdog]

AZ hospitals will consider stoping elective surgeries again. Hospitals told they can suspend elective surgeries if staffing/occupancy is a concern with surge in hospitalization of COVID patients.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

AZ hospitals will consider stoping elective surgeries again. Hospitals told they can suspend elective surgeries if staffing/occupancy is a concern with surge in hospitalization of COVID patients.

That's actually the right way to do it. Not just shut shit down and send people home. I am sorry this is happening but I can understand shutting things down because you need those resources as opposed to what we did before.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, that's most of this thread... people entrenching themselves into an opinion then opinion spamming that opinion, while shitting on people who are entrenched in a different opinion.

I thought eDave's "bet people who thought this would get killed off by summer feel pretty stupid right now" was especially amusing just for that point... you can't have an opinion/thought/theory these days without being pigeonholed into having a side, and how dare you if your opinion changes based on changing facts/information/theories.

It's hard to have normal conversations with some people because they don't know what to do with someone who's on the fence about something or basically wants to think out loud on the issue while not picking sides.

My sense of humor is taking a beating these days.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If you read a story about this, it isn’t nearly the reversal it seems. She strongly distinguishes between truly asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, and pre symptomatic. It is only the first group that they are claiming are rare to transmit. Pre-symptomatic individuals are still thought to be important in disease transmission. It doesn’t change policy with respect to assuming anyone you encounter can be infectious or even yourself. The big policy difference this makes is we don’t need to contact trace asymptomatic individuals.

Also it was just 1 doctor on the panel and not an official position.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Also it was just 1 doctor on the panel and not an official position.

And the conclusions haven’t been published or peer reviewed.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

No, actually the global mitigation didn't work very well, which is a good thing.

It caused there to be a big increase in herd immunity which kept the total numbers down.

With good mitigation, there is low herd immunity. Without herd immunity every city would have been another NYC.

That's not how herd immunity works. In order for a disease with an R0 of around 3 to reach herd immunity, you need the number of infected people to be 1 -1/R0, which for this pathogen would result in approximately 2/3 of the country being infected.

Outside of vaccination, numbers going up is the only way to reach herd immunity.

The infection rate is going to have to increase by a factor of 5-10 to approach herd immunity in all but the hardest-hit areas of the US.

Sweden's serology studies demonstrated the flaw in their approach and now they're coming under increasing scrutiny for a continually growing death toll without concomitant herd immunity.

You have four ways to get rid of disease as a serious threat: vaccination, which simulates herd immunity, actual herd immunity, which requires significant morbidity and mortality, effective therapeutics, which allows you to reach herd immunity without significant morbidity and mortality, or mitigation strategies, which reduces the R0 to the point where the virus begins dying out (must be less than 1).

A number of studies in Europe have shown that mitigation strategies have been able to reduce R0 below 1, as have the efforts of several Asian countries. In the absence of a vaccine or effective therapeutics, it is the only sensible and humane approach.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

No, actually the global mitigation didn't work very well, which is a good thing.

It caused there to be a big increase in herd immunity which kept the total numbers down.

With good mitigation, there is low herd immunity. Without herd immunity every city would have been another NYC.

I think you're confused on how herd immunity works.

So you don't think that we'd have more cases, and more deaths, if we hadn't mitigated?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's not how herd immunity works. In order for a disease with an R0 of around 3 to reach herd immunity, you need the number of infected people to be 1 -1/R0, which for this pathogen would result in approximately 2/3 of the country being infected.

Outside of vaccination, numbers going up is the only way to reach herd immunity.

The infection rate is going to have to increase by a factor of 5-10 to approach herd immunity in all but the hardest-hit areas of the US.

Sweden's serology studies demonstrated the flaw in their approach and now they're coming under increasing scrutiny for a continually growing death toll without concomitant herd immunity.

You have four ways to get rid of disease as a serious threat: vaccination, which simulates herd immunity, actual herd immunity, which requires significant morbidity and mortality, effective therapeutics, which allows you to reach herd immunity without significant morbidity and mortality, or mitigation strategies, which reduces the R0 to the point where the virus begins dying out (must be less than 1).

A number of studies in Europe have shown that mitigation strategies have been able to reduce R0 below 1, as have the efforts of several Asian countries. In the absence of a vaccine or effective therapeutics, it is the only sensible and humane approach.

The numbers have dropped too quickly for that to be the case though it seems to me. There's gotta be something going in where there's some built in immunity.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by O.city

The numbers have dropped too quickly for that to be the case though it seems to me. There's gotta be something going in where there's some built in immunity.

It became summer where respiratory infections are less...it hasn't like completely vanished though.