***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by sedated

If it didn't spread from Lake of the Ozarks, seems there are 3 options: being outside in the sun/heat killed the virus pretty effectively 2) it has mutated to be less potent as was rumored from Italy 3) the people that attended are all young and don't show symptoms.

It also hasn't been quite 2 weeks yet.

By next week, we'll know.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It also hasn't been quite 2 weeks yet.

By next week, we'll know.

I thought the 14 day thing had been debunked and is now like 11 days?

[sedated]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I thought the 14 day thing had been debunked and is now like 11 days?

I thought it was 5 days to show symptoms and 14 days to recover.

But every day there seems to be new information or some outlier set of symptoms, at this point if I grew a dick out of my forehead and my Dr. said it was COVID, I'd probably believe it.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by sedated

I thought it was 5 days to show symptoms and 14 days to recover.

But every day there seems to be new information or some outlier set of symptoms, at this point if I grew a dick out of my forehead and my Dr. said it was COVID, I'd probably believe it.

I think symptom onset is generally within 4-5 days on average. (As few as 2, as many as 14)

[RustShack]

There’s a couple scenarios about the Ozarks though. Maybe no one there had it/had already had it since it’s been around for awhile now. They did get it but are one of the many who haven’t shown symptoms, or they have it and it’s mild and haven’t been to the dr yet.

[tyecopeland]

Covid is over. The weather channel app took its covid information section down for hurricane information.

[petegz28]

Number of active cases has made a lower low for the first time since all this started. I hope this isn't because of all the shit going on. This is the first time we have moved lower, bounced back then moved below the previous low (lower low).

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Wut

[BleedingRed]

http://archive.is/cloVY#selection-1685.0-1693.323
WHO has resumed studies of hydroxychloroquine btw............

After they realized the Study published by Two of the world’s leading medical journals – the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine – published studies based on Surgisphere data. The studies were co-authored by the firm’s chief executive, Sapan Desai.

The World Health Organization and a number of national governments have changed their Covid-19 policies and treatments on the basis of flawed data from a little-known US healthcare analytics company, also calling into question the integrity of key studies published in some of the world’s most prestigious medical journals.
A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees appear to include a science fiction writer and an adult-content model, has provided data for multiple studies on Covid-19 co-authored by its chief executive, but has so far failed to adequately explain its data or methodology.


PAGING HAMAS!!!!!

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

He starts by asking for something that is in the works--an RCT. The WHO, your boogeyman, is conducting a five-armed RCT right now called the SOLIDARITY Trial. The very trial that he's asking for just stopped recruitment in the hydroxychloroquine arm due to concerns over safety and efficacy--that is--they are stopping early because the results are so bad that it is likely not worth continuing.

With that said, observational trials are not "bad science" as he claims. That shows a complete misunderstanding of what science is. Observational trials have limitations, and those limitations are greater than one finds in an RCT. That's why we strive for RCTs. But in cases where we don't yet have the time, funding, or ability to initiate and compile the data for said RCTs, observational trials still have value, and several of them together, have greater value.

The errors in the Lancet study that were caught are an indication of the value of peer review. While it would be nice to have a perfect study, those of us that look at these often will tell you that there is no such thing, which is why they are looked over in such exacting detail given the consequences. Those errors are also comparatively minor and did not affect the underlying conclusions or hazard ratios in any meaningful fashion.

If you don't believe the Lancet study, then you are more than welcome to look at studies published in the New England Journal and JAMA, each of which had thousands of patients enrolled and found no benefit to hydroxychloroquine use.

Or, you can use Raoult's study with 22 people with mysterious attrition in six and no control group or Peak Prosperity.

By the way, here is your "source" talking about bad science:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/bombs...uci-connected/

A conspiracy theorist website claiming that Fauci could be connected to the creation of SARS-CoV-2 in a lab, urging its visitors to invest in gold. Taco John would be proud.

But yeah, we're the arrogant ones, not the guy who has no ****ing clue what he's talking about, tutting-tutting this bullshit.

Yeah no bias here

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Science works on a pretty clear dictum in this case: you must reject the null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis for all therapeutics is that hydoxychloroquine has no efficacy for the treatment of COVID-19.

What evidence can you find that rejects the null hypothesis?

I, again, can point to large, observational trials using over 10,000 patients in each case that have been conducted all over the world. They have been published here, here, and here. Every one of them failed to reject the null hyptothesis.

I have spoken at length about the limitations of observational trials, in fact, I seem to remember someone complaining about me bringing it up.
Who was that? Oh yeah:

[/I]

Regarding the rest of your post, it's hard to take it very seriously when you conflate therapeutics, which concerns the efficacy of pharmacological interventions, with epidemiology, which is about the spread and control of disease.

I'll say again: what is biased about going off the evidence as presented in these trials?

Trail presented by Adult content models, and science fiction writers XD

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

Wut

It's part of trend following. Think of a stock chart. If a stock is in a down trend the peaks and troughs it makes are lower and lower. Meaning each low is lower than the previous low.

So in this case it's an indication that we might, hopefully see a down trend beginning in active cases. I fear though it's lag in counting because of all the assholes tearing shit up everywhere.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by tyecopeland

Covid is over. The weather channel app took its covid information section down for hurricane information.

Aren't we supposed to shelter in place for hurricanes too, though? Or wait - maybe we're supposed to travel for hurricanes.

I live 500 miles from a coast. I really have no idea what I'm supposed to do here.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Aren't we supposed to shelter in place for hurricanes too, though? Or wait - maybe we're supposed to travel for hurricanes.

I live 500 miles from a coast. I really have no idea what I'm supposed to do here.

Go outside and take pictures for us to enjoy.

[Jesus Christ]

Originally Posted by tyecopeland

Covid is over.

Not until you little weirdos down here stop shoving your penises in each other's assholes or until you cancel The View.