***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Lzen

Yeah, that worked really well during Prohibition.

Lmao I don't take him serious because the way he thinks is completely bat shit insane.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Lmao I don't take him serious because the way he thinks is completely bat shit insane.

Coming from you I take that as a compliment.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Lzen

I still want to get this kind of info. I would love to see how the top causes of death numbers compare this year to previous years. I suspect that they are down because certain conditions are being reported as COVID 19 even if they were already going to die from something else.

You probably won't see them for a while. CDC statistics typically lag a couple YEARS. Looks like 2018 is the latest they've put out.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

[DaFace]

Antibody tests from Sweden aren't very promising for those hoping for natural herd immunity. The article is in Swedish, but the key point is that only 7.3% of people in Stockholm were positive (the highest in the country). That represents the state of things in early April, though, so in theory it's higher than that now. Still, that's way lower than I was hoping for.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...ovid-19-virus/

[Mecca]

If you're using Georgia as an example, you should probably stop.

Georgia’s COVID-19 positive rate is higher than what state reports.

https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news...242831786.html


A quick highlight that explains why their numbers are flawed is this..

A representative for the Georgia Department of Public Health confirmed Monday that data on its website listing the total number of tests performed includes both antibody and viral tests for the novel coronavirus. The two tests are not the same. Antibody tests tell signs of previous infections while viral tests identify those who are currently infected.

“You’re putting apples and oranges together and calling them oranges,” said Dr. Harry J. Heiman, a clinical associate professor at Georgia State University’s School of Public Health. “You’re mixing two different tests. ...All that does is over-inflate the testing number.

“If anything, it skews those numbers to make it appear like the level of disease relative to testing is actually dropping much more dramatically than it is.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Antibody tests from Sweden aren't very promising for those hoping for natural herd immunity. The article is in Swedish, but the key point is that only 7.3% of people in Stockholm were positive (the highest in the country). That represents the state of things in early April, though, so in theory it's higher than that now. Still, that's way lower than I was hoping for.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...ovid-19-virus/

Wouldn't the converse of that be the virus isn't spreading like people thought as well?

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Wouldn't the converse of that be the virus isn't spreading like people thought as well?

Can't have both

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If you're using Georgia as an example, you should probably stop.

Georgia’s COVID-19 positive rate is higher than what state reports.

https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news...242831786.html


A quick highlight that explains why their numbers are flawed is this..

I prefer Texas......... We are much better at CoronaVirus.

[petegz28]

Anecdotal but if you want evidence that things are getting better than peep this..

A month ago NY and NJ would have already posted 800+ new deaths if not even more by now. Slowly those numbers got down to under 100-200. Now they haven't even posted any as of yet.

If you have followed Worldometers regularly you would know this is a great sign as the deaths in the hottest spot in the country are slowing substantially.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Wouldn't the converse of that be the virus isn't spreading like people thought as well?

Sure, but the whole idea with Sweden was that they would reach herd immunity before everyone else, and that's why their approach would be deemed to be optimal.

This suggests that it really is just social distancing (in their somewhat limited form) that is causing them to slow down. If they let up, they'll be essentially as vulnerable as everyone else, which means their high death rates (compared to their peers) haven't accomplished much.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Sure, but the whole idea with Sweden was that they would reach herd immunity before everyone else, and that's why their approach would be deemed to be optimal.

This suggests that it really is just social distancing (in their somewhat limited form) that is causing them to slow down. If they let up, they'll be essentially as vulnerable as everyone else, which means their high death rates (compared to their peers) haven't accomplished much.

Which means they half-ass approached it. They should not have done social distancing. Either rip the band-aid off or don't.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Which means they half-ass approached it. They should not have done social distancing. Either rip the band-aid off or don't.

It is more like they hedged their bets.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

It is more like they hedged their bets.

My point still stands....

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

My point still stands....

I prefer not to lose big if I am wrong , you might not win big either but depends what you are gambling with.

Social distancing is proven to help, herd immunity for this virus wasn't at the time.

[petegz28]

I was surprised after all the talk about how great Iceland did to see they had more cases per m than we do.