Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT?

[PunkinDrublic]

You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.

[Hammock Parties]

Because they are the Chargers.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by wazu

I was so relieved they punted.

You & me both. Whew

[KChiefs1]

I’m sure this will be debated all day tomorrow on ESPN, GMFB, The Aftermath, NFL Live, Etc...

[PunkinDrublic]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Weren't they on their own 30 or 34 yard line or something? You can't go for it in OT against Mahomes from your own 30 yard line. That's basically suicide. You especially don't do it with your rookie QB in his very first NFL game. You don't put a kid in that position. You put the onus (if it doesn't work out) on the HC's shoulders.

The thing is it’s early in the season, you know the Chiefs defense was probably gassed due to not having a long enough training camp. If you miss it and lose, you lose a game you were supposed to lose anyway and it doesn’t tank your season. If you get the first down you have an opportunity to wear down the Chiefs defense and steal a win. I like the risk/reward of going for it.

[BWillie]

Scared to lose and scared to win.

NFL Coaches are afraid to fail.

You cant be if you want to be a good situational coach.

[KC Hawks]

Originally Posted by wazu

I was so relieved they punted.

That's how I judge whether you should go for it or not. What does the other team's fans NOT want you to do?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Weren't they on their own 30 or 34 yard line or something? You can't go for it in OT against Mahomes from your own 30 yard line. That's basically suicide. You especially don't do it with your rookie QB in his very first NFL game. You don't put a kid in that position. You put the onus (if it doesn't work out) on the HC's shoulders.

Sure you do.

Whats the percentage Mahomes scores at least 3 points on the next possession with 4 downs at their disposal? Probably 75%+

This dumb old school thing about trusting your defense is nonsense.

Never trust your defense unless you are playing Baker Mayfield or somebody like that.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Sure you do.

Whats the percentage Mahomes scores at least 3 points on the next possession with 4 downs at their disposal? Probably 75%+

This dumb old school thing about trusting your defense is nonsense.

Never trust your defense unless you are playing Baker Mayfield or somebody like that.

Yea. In OT you gotta go for a score. You lose if you don't.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Probably the higher percentage call. Their defense was playing a lot better than their offense. If they don't convert on 4th down the game is over. It's not like it was crazy to punt.

Absolutely not the higher percentage call. Sometimes its just your time to die and you will fail. They don't get the first down 1 out of 5 times probably. And when that happens, yeah you lose.

Facing a team with a great offense, quite possible a historic offense you go for without even blinking.

The problem is some NFL coaches are afraid to fail because sometimes it means your head on a platter.

I remember last yr when Baltimore kept going for it on 4th down and didn't pick up most of them. Was absolutely the right call even though they failed. The media and even his own fans were out to eat his lunch. But over the course of the season that aggressive mentality really paid off.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Absolutely not the higher percentage call. Sometimes its just your time to die and you will fail. They don't get the first down 1 out of 5 times probably. And when that happens, yeah you lose.

Facing a team with a great offense, quite possible a historic offense you go for without even blinking.

The problem is some NFL coaches are afraid to fail because sometimes it means your head on a platter.

I remember last yr when Baltimore kept going for it on 4th down and didn't pick up most of them. Was absolutely the right call even though they failed. The media and even his own fans were out to eat his lunch. But over the course of the season that aggressive mentality really paid off.

I mean, it's why they kept going for it on 4th earlier. Coach turtled.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by PunkinDrublic

The thing is it’s early in the season, you know the Chiefs defense was probably gassed due to not having a long enough training camp. If you miss it and lose, you lose a game you were supposed to lose anyway and it doesn’t tank your season. If you get the first down you have an opportunity to wear down the Chiefs defense and steal a win. I like the risk/reward of going for it.

I get it.

But I knew they were going to punt before they sent the punter out. I thought for a second they might try a fake punt.

But what I knew was that they weren't going to put their rookie QB in that hot of a situation in his first game, a game he wasn't even supposed to be in, in that particular moment. That kid played a great game, and you don't sacrifice that by putting in the biggest moment of his life without the proper preparation, and coaches are all about preparation.

If he makes it great. But if something goes wrong, and he mangles the snap (which I've seen happen about a hundred times), or he gets strip sacked (which just happened to a rookie QB Thursday night), or he throws an INT/pick-6 (which I've seen about a thousand times), then that kid goes into the locker room a goat, and not the good kind. Lynn protected his QB in that moment, and I knew he would. Plus, Lynn is a defensive coach.

Now if that same scenario happens a few games down the road and Herbert is still doing well, I bet he goes for it.

But not in the kid's very first start, one which he was never supposed to play in the first place.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Absolutely not the higher percentage call. Sometimes its just your time to die and you will fail. They don't get the first down 1 out of 5 times probably. And when that happens, yeah you lose.

Facing a team with a great offense, quite possible a historic offense you go for without even blinking.

The problem is some NFL coaches are afraid to fail because sometimes it means your head on a platter.

I remember last yr when Baltimore kept going for it on 4th down and didn't pick up most of them. Was absolutely the right call even though they failed. The media and even his own fans were out to eat his lunch. But over the course of the season that aggressive mentality really paid off.

They picked up like 1. And trying to convert all those 2-pointers cost them like 4 or 6 points. Guess what they lost by.

Analytics are great, but they don't account for specific situations and they don't allow for the human aspect. And sometimes people get caught up in analytics and forget that. Bottom line, the Ravens giving the Chiefs multiple short fields, and throwing away a half dozen points was stupid. As it turned out, failing to convert all those times cost them field position, which made it that much easier for the Chiefs to go 4-5 plays and score.

Btw, do you know what the analytics say about giving the Chiefs a short field? Basically it says it's a really bad idea.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

They picked up like 1. And trying to convert all those 2-pointers cost them like 4 or 6 points. Guess what they lost by.

Analytics are great, but they don't account for specific situations and they don't allow for the human aspect. And sometimes people get caught up in analytics and forget that. Bottom line, the Ravens giving the Chiefs multiple short fields, and throwing away a half dozen points was stupid. As it turned out, failing to convert all those times cost them field position, which made it that much easier for the Chiefs to go 4-5 plays and score.

Btw, do you know what the analytics say about giving the Chiefs a short field? Basically it says it's a really bad idea.

The thing is that WAS the game. If you dont get it you lose. And thats the way it is. But when the Chiefs need 3 points and have likely 4 downs to do it there is nobody who is going to stop them most of the time. Your best chance is to be aggressive, hunt the TD and if shit happens it happens. Result oriented thinking is simple minded thinking.

[Bl00dyBizkitz]

My guess is they wanted to rely on their stronger defense (who did a pretty damn good job up to that point stalling us) to win the game for them.

Was it the right call? Probably not, but hindsight's 20/20.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The thing is that WAS the game. If you dont get it you lose. And thats the way it is. But when the Chiefs need 3 points and have likely 4 downs to do it there is nobody who is going to stop them most of the time. Your best chance is to be aggressive, hunt the TD and if shit happens it happens. Result oriented thinking is simple minded thinking.

Winning is a result.

And the Ravens with Lamar are 0-2 in the playoffs while blindly following analytics, while the Chiefs are 4-1and Super Bowl Champions following a coach that isn't interested in analytics. I rest my case.