***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

so... i guess no one wants to discuss the MLB tests now?

It’s interesting in the context of if they want that information to resume play but that’s about it.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

Not sure if this chart has been posted, but this is a good chart for breaking down the deaths by age range.
https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku

Some interesting statistics in there if you do the math. Obviously it isn’t up to the minute but we can probably assume the percentages will stay about the same. Seems like it’s definitely not as fatal in the younger crowds as the headlines try to make it seem.

It lists 44,016 total Coronavirus deaths. I did the percentage breakdown.

0-24 years old: .13% (This age group is twice as likely to die from influenza according to the chart)
25-34 years old: .72%
35-44 years old: 1.81%
45-54 years old: 5.14%
55-64 years old: 12.31%
65-74 years old: 21.26%
75-84 years old: 27.32%
85+ years old: 31.30%

JFC

[notorious]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

i cant believe all the guys waiting on the MLB test arent talking about it now that it has came out.


oh wait, yes i can... it doesnt support their 40% infected numbers.


5600+ from across the nation, 28 teams IIRC and the antibody rate is .7%.


thats not very encouraging

I guess this means the baseball players socially distanced really well and haven’t been exposed.

They probably would have been better off building immunity since they are healthy.

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

so... i guess no one wants to discuss the MLB tests now?

If they show anything they show that the novel Coronavirus is not spreading to people who are employed, working from home, mostly affluent nearly as much as it is spreading to poor people in big cities. The MLB employees are not a great representation of the public, but it does also show we are insanely far from herd immunity across the US as a whole. Also not great for death rates, although again I’d caution against using the antibody data of this subset of the population against the US population.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s interesting in the context of if they want that information to resume play but that’s about it.

Yeah I don't know about that. It's not a great sign if they want to resume play, hardly anyone has had it. If they come back they are going to have to be super vigilant.

I don't know how well it applies to the rest of the population though. It does go to show just how many people there are in the country. It is probably true we have way more cases than we know because of lack of testing. But even if that's true... it's still likely a small percentage of the population that's had this thing. You might have to infect another 200 million more people to get to herd immunity. And that would likely mean millions dead.

[notorious]

Comparing insanely wealthy athletes to the average Joe probably isn’t anywhere near the real numbers.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah I don't know about that. It's not a great sign if they want to resume play, hardly anyone has had it. If they come back they are going to have to be super vigilant.

That’s what I was saying. It’s interesting if this information is needed to resume play or not.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah I don't know about that. It's not a great sign if they want to resume play, hardly anyone has had it. If they come back they are going to have to be super vigilant.

I don't know how well it applies to the rest of the population though. It does go to show just how many people there are in the country. It is probably true we have way more cases than we know because of lack of testing. But even if that's true... it's still likely a small percentage of the population that's had this thing. You might have to infect another 200 million more people to get to herd immunity. And that would likely mean millions dead.

We are ****ed, then.

Wait on a vaccine indefinitely or rip the bandaid off. There are your choices.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by notorious

Comparing insanely wealthy athletes to the average Joe probably isn’t anywhere near the real numbers.

For deaths and serious symptoms, probably. It's not like they're immune to this thing any more than we are though.

It was literally an NBA player getting this that shut down the whole country.

[mr. tegu]

It’s also worth noting that though a small number, the results continue to show infected people are very often without symptoms, as 70% of the antibody positives had none.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by tk13

For deaths and serious symptoms, probably. It's not like they're immune to this thing any more than we are though.

It was literally an NBA player getting this that shut down the whole country.

They can isolate in massive castles. Best nutrition money can buy, and they don’t have to lift a finger to get what they need. I would say that the average Joe has a lot more exposure to this than they do.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by notorious

We are ****ed, then.

Wait on a vaccine indefinitely or rip the bandaid off. There are your choices.

We were always screwed. The people who think we aren't are unfortunately are just trying to cope. I get it, it's a hard thing to accept. You wait, and the economy tanks. You rip the band aid off and let this thing kill millions of people, the economy is devastated like we've never seen it before.

The only hope was to get out ahead of it in January and Februrary, and we didn't. I said that in March. And here we are. We are going to have to pay the price.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by notorious

We are ****ed, then.

Wait on a vaccine indefinitely or rip the bandaid off. There are your choices.

Seems we could use this data to come up with a mitigation plan based off risk.

0-24 years old: .13% (This age group is twice as likely to die from influenza according to the chart)
25-34 years old: .72%
35-44 years old: 1.81%
45-54 years old: 5.14%
55-64 years old: 12.31%
65-74 years old: 21.26%
75-84 years old: 27.32%
85+ years old: 31.30%

[O.city]

Originally Posted by tk13

We were always screwed. The people who think we aren't are unfortunately are just trying to cope. I get it, it's a hard thing to accept. You wait, and the economy tanks. You rip the band aid off and let this thing kill millions of people, the economy is devastated like we've never seen it before.

The only hope was to get out ahead of it in January and Februrary, and we didn't. I said that in March. And here we are. We are going to have to pay the price.

The economy is going to be devastated either way. I'm not sure there's a way around that.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by tk13

We were always screwed. The people who think we aren't are unfortunately are just trying to cope. I get it, it's a hard thing to accept. You wait, and the economy tanks. You rip the band aid off and let this thing kill millions of people, the economy is devastated like we've never seen it before.

The only hope was to get out ahead of it in January and Februrary, and we didn't. I said that in March. And here we are. We are going to have to pay the price.

(Somberly nods in agreement)