***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Except Missouri is surrounded by oh, 47 other states that people come and go from whereas no one really travels in and out of SK.

You got people in MO interacting with people in KS, IL, IA, NE, AR & OK just in the immediate area.

Yeah, and you could literally add every one of those states together, and the population would be half of South Korea. And now you're talking hundreds of thousands of square miles of space.

It's a different set of challenges. But you can't sit here and be genuine and act like having a thousand people for every square mile of space doesn't present a challenge when you're fighting a contagious virus.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

There were travel restrictions all over regarding SK.

Before or after the virus was introduced?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah, and you could literally add every one of those states together, and the population would be half of South Korea. And now you're talking hundreds of thousands of square miles of space.

Keep moving the goal posts....

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Before or after the virus was introduced?

As early as early Feb in some cases

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay well that we knew. The mere act of "flattening the curve" distinctly implied this would be drug out.

Here's probably the easiest chart to comprehend quickly:



We did a half-assed job of the "hammer," so our progress line is probably kinda sorta in between the red and green curves. That means that the whole thing has shifted to the right a bit.

We also don't have "proper testing, contact tracing, quarantining, isolating" down, which means that the green line on the right is higher than we'd hoped.

The primary point is just that this was never going to be a short-term thing. Anyone implying otherwise either didn't really dig into it or was just blinded by wishful thinking.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Here's probably the easiest chart to comprehend quickly:

[IMG]https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/1*a9Lcz2g8DkKdnW0o_vk3ow.png[/IMG]

We did a half-assed job of the "hammer," so our progress line is probably kinda sorta in between the red and green curves. that means that the whole thing has shifted to the right a bit.

We also don't have "proper testing, contact tracing, quarantining, isolating" down, which means that the green line on the right is higher than we'd hoped.

The primary point is just that this was never going to be a short-term thing. Anyone implying otherwise either didn't really dig into it or was just blinded by wishful thinking.

your link seems to no link

edit nm

[tk13]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Keep moving the goal posts....

I'm not moving the goal posts. You are.

I made the point that South Korea was not devoid of challenges because they're a country with extreme population density. And as we've seen in NY that can be a real challenge with a virus like this.

That's the point I'm still making. It hasn't changed. They have a different set of challenges than we do.

You're the one trying to make an argument about travel restrictions. I never said that was the challenge in South Korea.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

To bring it to small numbers globally we need a vaccine.

And if there is never a scalable/effective vaccine developed, what is Plan B?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Here's probably the easiest chart to comprehend quickly:



We did a half-assed job of the "hammer," so our progress line is probably kinda sorta in between the red and green curves. That means that the whole thing has shifted to the right a bit.

We also don't have "proper testing, contact tracing, quarantining, isolating" down, which means that the green line on the right is higher than we'd hoped.

The primary point is just that this was never going to be a short-term thing. Anyone implying otherwise either didn't really dig into it or was just blinded by wishful thinking.

So "The Hammer" is meant to be an indefinite thing. Just hide forever. Everybody lose everything and starve to death? No thanks.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

I'm not moving the goal posts. You are.

I made the point that South Korea was not devoid of challenges because they're a country with extreme population density. And as we've seen in NY that can be a real challenge with a virus like this.

That's the point I'm still making. It hasn't changed. They have a different set of challenges than we do.

You're the one trying to make an argument about travel restrictions. I never said that was the challenge in South Korea.

The travel restriction conversation was with Monticore, not you.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

"It was never going to be over in two weeks."

So why did many places shut down for only 2 weeks at first?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by wazu

So "The Hammer" is meant to be an indefinite thing. Just hide forever. Everybody lose everything and starve to death? No thanks.

If it's not worth your time to even skim the article and try to understand how this works, it's not really worth my time to try and help you understand it.

[FloridaMan88]

Another key step for the NFL...

Link: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...ing-facilities

A route to reopening team facilities has been laid out to all 32 NFL teams.

Commissioner Roger Goodell sent out a memo Wednesday laying out protocols on how facilities may reopen, which includes consent from state government officials, establishment of a club infection response team, social distancing and other measures, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported.

All club facilities have been closed since March 25 to further efforts of combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, the NFL has outlined protocols and procedures on the path toward opening them back up.

"The protocols are intended to allow for a safe and phased reopening," Goodell wrote. "The first phase would involve a number of non-player personnel. ... No players would be permitted in the facility except to continue a course of therapy and rehabilitation that was underway when facilities were initially closed.

"Clubs should take steps to have these protocols in place by Friday, May 15 in anticipation of being advised when club facilities will formally reopen."

Among the protocols are wearing a cloth face covering or medical-style mask, and daily screening of employees and visitors who must have their temperature taken and answer questions.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by tk13

Based on?

You realize that's a different country than China. China is almost surely lying. South Korea is handling this way more aggressively than we did. The past experiences with SARS and H1N1 probably made a huge difference in that though.

Based on the fact that I am Korean. Most of my family through my parents are still in Korea. That's nearly 20 uncles and aunts. And their children. Not going to come up with an exact count right here, but over 40 cousins. And my aunts and uncles were not only prolific, they were successful as well. There are more than a dozen MDs between my uncles, aunts and cousins. Ditto Judges and attorneys. Several city officials.

Now, I don't talk much to my cousins, but my mother does, and of course there's the Korean Mother's Network. And when I drive her places, or drop by to do some chores, she can't wait to tell me what all my relatives are doing and saying. (being just a commercial pilot, I'm the least successful person in my family, and Korean tradition is to make sure everyone knows what everyone is doing). Bottom line, the numbers don't jibe exactly with what they're putting out there. Not surprising though, considering who their nearest neighbor is.

Personally, I knew that if this virus got even a little out of hand, South Korea would start fudging their numbers, in the name of security.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by wazu

So "The Hammer" is meant to be an indefinite thing. Just hide forever. Everybody lose everything and starve to death? No thanks.

One, that Game of Thrones-esque titled article said 18 months.

Two, the guy who wrote the article isn't any sort of public health expert

"[Tomas Pueyo]2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero"